Scarlet Pimpernel

It's the PSU Cliffs Notes version!

The March 32nd HECS will be rockin'!!! (April Fool!!!)

Just my two copper coin's worth (not much, probably!)... So after watching this event and checking the discussion here, I think the expectation really should be that we'll have a wintry feeling day with on the order of an inch or so (in most places). I don't see any point in haggling over what models and what cycles show some minor 0.1" difference from run to run at this point, just a day and a half out. That is my general feeling and expectation now. Disappointing after some of the indications we saw earlier? Sure. And who knows, maybe trends will end up wetter or we'll over-perform and get a couple of inches or so. Either way, I cannot complain that much...it caps of a rather wintry week to be honest, before we go into the wilderness of blah next week...after which, hopefully, we'll have better chances again toward the last couple of days of this month or early February (and on into the first part of March!).

Hopefully at least like it better than the 18Z GFS and Euro.

...Or finding out that Rosebud was Charles Kane's sled!!! Oh, sorry to ruin that for you!!

Five-post you through the end of winter??

NAM forecasting a new Pope???

Well, your commentary is a lot easier to translate than Chuck's, for sure!!!

@stormtracker PBP indicators/translations: Jaws music: HECS incoming. "FOLKS!!": 6-12" or so event. "Guys!": mid-level event up to about 6" or so. "Ass hair": Not much change in the 500mb heights or other atmospheric parameters from previous runs. A very technical, scientific (if somewhat disgusting!) term! "Fuck central NJ!!": Fuggeddaboutit, we get nothing on this run. Next!

FYP somewhat!!

Just went for a "mini" Jebwalk, ~4.5" snow here in Bethesda now.

As promised, some photos!

Love the cute little snowman (and all these photos)!! Black and white is particularly effective with snow photos.

So wait a minute...what are the other 5 for you, then???? And yes, happy to get on the board finally. Biggest snow since March 12, 2022. First time I've even had any opportunity to take snow photos since then too. Hope to share some when I offload them in the next day or so. Closing in on 3" when I last went out for a Jebwalk, an hour ago.

Hahaha!!! I am so stealing that image! So, if you had back-to-back salt trucks like this, would that be putting Old Bay on your Old Bay?

Thanks for the added insight, Bob! That's sort of the impression I had, that we shouldn't be waiting around for weeks to clear out a bunch of Pac puke air. Looking at the flow over the entire north American region on TT to get a better idea, you can see that Canada generally keeps a northerly flow so the cold air source doesn't get obliterated, thanks to that EPO/PNA ridge. I wonder if in a way this is also a bit reminiscent of 2014, though at the time I believe we had a strongly +AO (whereas -AO this year) and were blessed with having an EPO/PNA ridge on 'roids to help us then.

I think all models have been advertising a relax soon after whatever occurs Fri-Sat (i.e., the following week). But I also thought indications were that warmup/relax would be relatively short-lived and we'd be morphing back into a favorable look by the end of the month. I gave a quick glance at the GEFS mean the other day and that seemed to be the case, but I'll let others who have been following that chime in with better detail.

Nice!!! You're gonna need a bigger (@Jebman) shovel though!

Light coating of snow (even on pavement) this morning, with some pixie dust flakes still falling.

I knew someone who used to work with him I think while at Accu-Weather, and he didn't care much for JB either. Thought JB had good knowledge but was a bit arrogant and always "CYA" for anything he got incorrect, saying things like, "well, I got the pattern right but the meteorology wrong!", or something along those lines. I've mentioned this before but he'd always use the weasel words such as "coldest month...RELATIVE TO AVERAGES". I swear once he used that to claim that March was the "coldest month of the winter" (RELATIVE TO AVERAGES, mind you!), and then claim victory that his call for a "very cold 2nd half of winter" was correct or whatever. I used to joke that using his logic, I could claim a rather cool July is the coldest month of the year, relative to averages!!!

Haha, I know...I was just saying that for humor after getting (properly) admonished for mentioning that particular event! Usually I just say "The Storm Which Shall Not Be Named" (a'la Voldemort!), LOL!! Anyhow, yeah, I mostly agree with what you say here, we've had plenty of "near misses" that sucked. But I think "that one" is impressed upon so many people's memory here because we were coming off that amazing record-breaking winter of 2009-10, and then it was pretty cold the following year in Dec. 2010, so expectations and all were perhaps elevated.

That half inch or so of cold smoke from a clipper a couple of days before the Jan. 2016 blizzard caused similar incidents. I was driving home that evening and it was truly white-knuckle driving, the roads were a mess. No real treatment so cars effectively packed it down into a sheet of ice.

Now as primarily a Browns fan (yeah, I'll admit that!), they were just totally pathetic! Looked completely unprepared. Yeah, Flacco had a bad game with the two pick-6's, but also their defense was awful. Doesn't help to have zero offense for the 2nd half too of course.