Scarlet Pimpernel

You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct?

For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful. Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance? Then you should find a new field to study. And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it. Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6. Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude.

I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range. But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman. He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up. He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?). And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window. Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs. It sucks, but that's what's being shown. It may not be right, it may change to looking good again. Or we could look good after that period. Who knows. I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain. I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones. I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty. That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm. (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year).

Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse??

You know, I was just about to reply to him stating exactly this. I looked at that Jan. 1-15 MJO forecast from the EPS and thought the verification looked pretty damned good as well! Thanks for stating the same thing. And while the mean from that older forecast kind of diminished toward the COD, the envelope clearly had quite a range and some members pushed into P6 (which is what occurred). So yeah, not bad for a 15 day forecast. Sadly, it meant things sucked for us, but it is what it is.

You know, I actually can see and agree with what both you and @psuhoffman have been saying, though there is some disagreement between you in what you've both said. PSU is absolutely right on the points that the pattern has not been the same since about mid-December, though the result for us doesn't seem much different (or improved!). And I certainly can agree that we're getting into at least a somewhat more favorable look for the latter part of this month, definitely better than a total shutout. But it's the details (ah, the devil is in there!) that can kill us...a shortwave here, a trough too far east there...and we get crap when not long before things looked better. Likewise, what he said about our "base state" or climatology here is pretty well spot-on...we are not in a location that has high likelihood of snow year in and year out, in fact, it's not all that great of a probability on average. It's really hit or miss here, you get hammered or get almost nothing. It took me a few years living here to fully get that the "average snow" doesn't mean much because the variability is huge! Coming from northeast Ohio, the variability is far less, so even a "meh" year typically isn't all that awful. I also can definitely see and empathize with what you're saying. From our perspective, it doesn't look like anything has really improved (I am now remembering that "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" scene, where Indy and his dad are in the fireplace, which rotates around, and his dad says "Our situation has not improved!"). The pattern is definitely quite different, but we're not seeing anything "good" (i.e., good snow chances) show up for us. Not sure I'm fully on board with the storm persistence "memory" kind of thing, because if the pattern is not the same, then things aren't persistent by definition, I suppose. But again, it sure seems that way whether true or not. I don't know what it would take to do a "reshuffle" so that we're in a better spot here, or if such a thing would happen. So much seems almost right, but just enough "off" to "F" things up.

No matter what they put on the roads, my dark blue Honda Civic always ends up looking slate-gray with that stuff.

I don't know man...the way this season has gone, you never know!! But joking aside, I guess (???) it's nice that the Euro weeklies looked good (according to what @psuhoffman said earlier), and that the CFS keeps indicating a cold February. We'll see.

Well, @Bob Chill did say he's passing the torch. I just didn't think he meant the ops Euro!! (Just kidding, Bob, you know I'm just having a bit of fun!!).

That's odd...I checked the calendar and it says "January 16" today, barely half-way through the month. (And the Grammar Nazi in me should correct your "its almost February" to "it's almost February".)

Just throwing this out there, too, if I may... I've also been wondering about something like "Commutageddon" (Jan. 26, 2011). Now I know that's not in your "historical decades" list, and it's obviously much more recent. And it was a highly dynamic storm in the mid-levels, which may not correspond to the type you have here. But as I recall the temperatures were borderline, at or just above freezing when the heavy, wet snow fell. I'm not familiar with the ones you list, as I wasn't here through that time. Were they similar in any way to how Commutageddon went? Maybe the extreme dynamic setup is the only reason Commutageddon worked out for us, as a more recent event?

"Passing the torch" might be a dubious turn of phrase at this point, with us looking for snow!!

Mmmmm, fried chicken!!! Oh wait, you said JFC, not KFC...damn, sorry!

Couple of things I can think of, just looking at that surface plot. The coastal low is too far inland (and the high to the north looks pushed too far away to the north). Also, note the extension of low pressure into the WV panhandle/southeast OH/southwest PA. That would imply a primary that's too far north, thus enabling more warm air to get in before the coastal can take over. Again, that's just based on looking at the surface, having not seen the corresponding Euro 500 hPa. ETA: Ninja'd by @psuhoffman and @jaydreb!

I thought the Reaper only deals with electronic transfers now!! Checks? Cash?? I thought those went the way of putting 2 spaces after a period at the end of a sentence! (Which I still do...so again, get off my lawn! haha!)

You know, it's kind of funny that I recall seeing the actual Pepperidge Farm ad that this is parodying!! (Now, get off my lawn!!)

Yup...well, that just figures! But you're correct, it's not worth worrying about how the GFS is handling a NS shortwave that far out...if there even is a NS wave by then in that precise location. Butterfly wings flapping is a prettier image, but cow's fart works too!!

Huh? OK, seriously...WTF is going on there? I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that. Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all.

As I recall at the time, the global medium range model (LFM, limited fine mesh!!) of that day had it about a week in advance. And it was being widely discussed 5-7 days out in terms of its potential and severity. It was heralded as a numerical model success, for good reason. That system was similar to other "big dogs" like Feb. 2010 or Jan. 2016 (I assume Jan. 1996 too?), where the synoptic setup was just so blatantly clear, and models tend to grab onto those early and not waver much at all.

Can't recall much detail about that winter, must have slipped my mind. Any stats on how it was for the area offhand??

Thanks again, PSU, for being a voice of reason in here...difficult as that can be at times! I'll admit, the looks today have been very disappointing, after several days of very promising potential the latter part of this month and into February. OK, much of that disappointment is probably effects of this weekend's (non?)event. But for the longer range beyond that, it's one run, of one model system really (EPS). The 12Z GEFS I think looked fine still beyond this weekend(?) from what I saw shown earlier. Others have said this (I think you as well), but if the potential for this upcoming weekend never really existed or showed up as possibly being pretty good, I wonder how we'd all feel. Even with that, many were considering anything this weekend (IF anything) would be bonus, and the better time that was being honed in on was around the 24th or there about, and beyond. Of course, the EPS may well be a canary in a coal mine and models from here on out trend toward "meh" or worse, who knows. But for now we just have to sit tight and see.

Very tropical...

So, payback is a...bastard? I think you meant payback has been a female dog (not the son), perhaps, if you were trying to word that phrase diplomatically!

That was sometime later in Feb. 2015, right? Extremely cold at the start, we got like 6-8" snow then ice and some rain/drizzle. But that was only toward late day and at night after many hours of snow. Yeah, that was quite an unusual setup, not something you get here that often. Thing is, we weren't done with winter after that event, either (the early March ice then a final moderate snow event was icing...literally!...on the cake of a 4 week period!).

Ha! Well, maybe so, I was only having fun though. And yes, Cincy has been much better over the past decade (apart from maybe this year?) with playoff appearances. And I do remember the 2 SBs they played vs. 49ers back in the day. I grew up in the Cleveland area, long suffering on all sports fronts (until the Cavs won in 2016!). Where about in Cincinnati are you from? My sister at one point lived there (and she also went to Miami Univ. of Ohio years ago). So I've been there a few times, though not sure how much I remember about different neighborhoods there at this point. And I was in Columbus for about a year (interesting dichotomy there...between Indians/Reds and Browns/Bengals fans). Always cool to meet another Ohioan! (ETA: I remember "Red Right 88", "The Drive", "The Fumble", "The Shot", and 2 World Series lost in Game 7, both in extra innings!!)