Scarlet Pimpernel

Hahaha! I know...I was making a weak attempt to riff on the old "you can take the so-and-so out of wherever, but you cannot take the wherever out of the so-and-so"! (or something like that!).

So...you can take the meteorologist out of moderator, but you can't take the moderator out of the girl!

I would think so too...but at the same time, isn't that ridging off the coast and up into the northeast kind of not ideal? But we're talking day 10, so I shouldn't parse such details. The setup is showing up, and has been showing up, for a little while now in the general time frame.

Yeah...the last 5-6 Marches in particular have highlighted this!

Lunatics running the asylum, it seems..."Weenies Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest"? ; ) I admit I'm as weenie as anyone when it comes to snow, following the storms is fun (though frustrating at the same time, too). But I try to keep the frustration mostly to myself and out of the medium range and storm related threads, when things don't work out. Light banter maybe sometimes in there, but I've tried to keep most stuff in the Banter forum or the Panic Room for fun. I'm sure several others are the same, and I know you're not aiming that comment at them or me...but you're right. And thanks to you and other mods for at least trying to keep it somewhat under control. The past couple of years it has gotten really insufferable at times in the main discussion areas!

Yeah, looks like the trough doesn't quite dig as much as the 06Z did (or the other couple of previous cycles that had a good event). So it doesn't get going really until it's well offshore and it doesn't "turn the corner" much up the coast for us. But...the idea is still there at that range, and has been for a little while now. Guess that's all we can ask at this point.

I may not be that much of an expert (nor do I play one on TV, and have not stayed at a Holiday Inn Express)...but my 2 copper coins worth: The "main" southern stream trough actually has a neutral tilt (aligned more or less north-south). The northern stream energy up around WI is neutral to slightly positive tilt. But it sure looks like it's getting close to phasing with the southern stream...which, if it did, would probably result in a closed off system that becomes negatively tilted. (Note: "positive" tilt, trough aligned more southwest-northeast in the flow..."negative" tilt, aligned northwest-southeast, and can become closed off..."neutral" tilt, aligned more north-south. Generally speaking, a positively tilted trough is weaker, and the energy can tend to get sheared out. A negative tilt or closed low implies a slow moving or intensifying system, or perhaps phasing if there's more than one stream...these tend to be much stronger. A neutrally tilted trough is kind of, well, neutral or "in the middle", could imply a trough that's amplifying and potentially can become negatively tilted.)

You know what that means, professor? YOU DON'T GET...THE UNICORN! AWWWW! (Actually, they did get the unicorn in the end, so who knows!!!)

Horrible news about Kobe Bryant...just awful and depressing. May he rest in peace, and may his surviving family find the strength to overcome this tragedy.

Wait...so I haven't delved into what the GGEM shows, but just looking at the image posted above by @Chris78, I would have thought all or mostly rain incoming. How does it dump 6"+ over the area?? I know, I know...snow maps and all that, but still.

Yup, damn that is remarkably close to a nice phase. But even missing that, white rain I suppose is better than rain only at this point. Maybe. I'm sure we'll see something different in a few hours, so many small details out there several days in advance.

If this were a painting or photo in an art museum, the caption would read: "The Distraught Reaper: How he almost got @showmethesnow's soul, but was denied a call yet again. The astute observer will note the extreme disappointment in the skull-like face as he looks down at the table, while drowning his sorrows in bourbon. Oil on canvas, circa January 2020."

Just perfect, thanks!!!

Ji being positive? Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria!! (Just for the Reaper, I should probably add "The dead rising from the grave!" line from Ghostbusters, as well!!)

Yeah, this has been a very frustrating year with regard to anything that can fail for us, found a way to fail. We've seen a handful of good looks, sure, but they quickly disappeared. Or a couple of models would show it, but others would indicate an unfavorable scenario. That's different from last year, when (as I recall?) most every model and ensemble was pointing toward a very good pattern but it just never really occurred (I'm thinking of last part of Dec and into Jan, there about). I've said this before, I know, but you've been spot-on with the warnings that if certain things lined up like some of the guidance was definitely showing, we might be in serious trouble. Those warnings were correct, not so much because we're witnessing it real-time now, but even if we didn't, the hypothetical idea was right (if that makes sense). Unfortunately, we've seen what seems to be just about everything (or at least too many things) work out wrong. Perfect 988 coastal location off Hatteras and then Ocean City? Holy cow, the entire eastern seaboard should get bombed! Oh, wait...sorry, the antecedent airmass sucks, and we've got too much southerly flow beforehand, so it's rain all the way to the NY state line! Nice, solid, cold-air damming situation even with a storm to our west? We should get a decent thump to ice to drizzle! Nope...the precip is too light as the low went way too far west, resulting in the moisture trajectory going elsewhere. So we get 2 flakes and then light rain. I'm not giving up hope for...something!...quite yet. And by something, I mean not just an inch or two of slush that barely stays on the sidewalks. No, I'm not talking about a HECS or even a near-HECS. But I hold out hope for a general warning-level event sometime Feb/Mar, with some good cold air, that everyone will like. I know there are some here who don't care for late-season snows (like in March), but personally, I'd be fine with a storm in the first part of March even if it's not something that will be on the ground for a long time. Hell, we had enough times in that month within recent memory that actually were below freezing during the day, even a couple of days, around a storm.

Yeah, a bit inland. But I don't think it's so much a matter of needing it farther east so much as it is the antecedent air isn't the greatest. Though that would help I guess. Euro was offshore, but also a precip bomb.

Damn...we lost a couple of shortwaves from the last cycle. Chances are decreased. I'm out!!

Heh! Remind me to never ignore any invitation you might ever send out!!

So true, Bob. Related to that is that those who still look down their nose at you because they have x amount more and you don't, are far poorer people because of that attitude. I have a good friend from Atlanta...and I was once was saying something about how it was frustrating being in a somewhat cramped apartment, but we try to make it work. He said something that's stuck with me ever since...essentially that he knew many people who had large/fancy houses that had little in them (they made themselves "house poor", as he said) or they felt sterile or more like a museum. And of all the places he's been to for dinners or holidays, etc., ours felt the most like an actual *home* to him, the most welcoming. Not so much because of what we did have, but because of how we made it feel. Sorry to get overly philosophical there...LOL!

What happens after this panel? One before it (shown in another post above) had a sleet line through the DC area. Does the cold air wrap back in, or does that rain line just push farther northwest? I know, not that it should matter dissecting minutia for a day 8-10 deterministic model...but curious all the same!

Oh, I *wish* we could have done Pandora! Unfortunately, when we tried to grab that one in advance when you could set up your fast pass rides online, it was already full. And there was already a 2 hour line early in the morning for it, the day we were at Animal Kingdom. But damn it looked awesome...maybe catch it next time! Agree with you on the shows...not just the evening fireworks ones they do, but yeah, any of the others they do throughout the day on stage (and a nice break from walking, too!).

We went to Disney World in August 2018, and had a total blast! Long days and lots of walking, but what a time. The Seven Dwarfs ride that @MillvilleWx showed was neat. Here's some recommendations if I may, just off the top of my head (not everything there of course, but the ones I remember best): If you're a roller coaster person, I'd recommend doing the Expedition Everest in the Animal Kingdom park...and of course, Space Mountain in Magic Kingdom. Oh, and though it's not technically a coaster, check out the Twilight Zone "Tower of Terror" at Hollywood Studios (holy F***, what a vertical drop they put you through!!). I'll admit I had absolutely no desire to do the Aerosmith "Rock-n-Roller" coaster when I heard how it worked...apparently, you very quickly accelerate to 60MPH (?), then it flips you upside down and back again. Can't quite go for that myself, honestly (my brother did it years ago, jokingly said he *may* have peed his pants a little, haha!). And there's the Haunted Mansion ride that's pretty cool (Magic Kingdom). I know some people find it a bit dull or boring, but I actually liked Epcot Center. Check out the ride "Soarin". If you want to be driven insane, go on the "It's a Small World" ride in Magic Kingdom (hahaha, just kidding, sort of...it's kinda cute, but a bit much too! And you'll *never* get that song out of your head for days, LOL!). Get as many "fast passes" as you can, I think they give you 3 for each day you're there by default if you get one of those packages. And use them wisely, on the ones you know are popular and might be in line for a long time without one. You should be able to sign up in advance online before things fill up, they give you a window of time to do that sometime before the dates you'll be there. Oh, and be sure to absolutely see the nighttime shows in each park that you go to, they're amazing!

Oh no...you did not just say that! Just...well, I won't even go there! I fear we may have an appearance by @ravensrule in our future soon! (ETA: Comments like that are like summoning the Reaper, but for a completely different reason!!!)

That looks tasty!! I still have a couple of Christmas Ales from Great Lakes Brewing Company, that I brought back from Ohio around New Year's.