Scarlet Pimpernel

I distinctly remember checking the discussion and model pbp in here the Saturday afternoon before the storm hit (about 7-8 days out). At that time it was clear a significant storm was in the offing and it seemed like all major models "snapped in place." Thereafter it was a matter of various details... Would it be a top HECS, would we mix for a time etc. But it was clear at least a significant snow event was there. Of course that was a Nino and STJ on roids and a perfectly placed block so the setup was very clear-cut as was the models' handling of that. ETA: @Deck Pic pretty well stated it, especially concerning the Euro. I thought the GFS/GEFS did well starting early on too but that could be incorrect recollection on my part. There was also a wacky 00Z Euro run right the night before that cut precip amounts for some reason, which momentarily caused alarm I seem to recall.

Well, card stock is a good source of fiber. Just hope you didn't consume any of the really valuable cards! Oh wait, you were referring to having the gum for lunch... I think!

I think we're a little closer to this one than we were with the Thursday non-event when that started looking good initially. And I don't think the Thursday thing had as much support as this one (nearly) across the board.

If this actually happens, you know DCA will record 17.8", everyone else other than DCA will have 24"+.

Where's the huge Bob Chill stunned face?! What an unreal, amazing Euro run there. I seriously doubt it will be just like that (but we can hope, sure!)...but I'm encouraged by the possibility even if it ends up not as out-there crazy with the totals or how long it stalls just off OC. Good 12Z suite today, really. Let's face it, even the lighter amounts in the GFS and CMC give us near or at warning-level snows. The Para GFSv16 gives a solid 6-12", the UKMET is in that ballpark. And the Euro on the high end. Can't much complain about those goal posts, really, at this point. Anyone offhand have the temperatures through the entire time?

I'm hoping we can score a big event of course...as is essentially everyone else here. But expecting that? Absolutely not! Well, unless this continues and we get a lot closer with the same general evolution continuing as such of course. It's possible to temper expectations without coming across as a downer, too. Sometimes catching up reading in here, you'd think we lost the storm or it totally sucks when there are several posts that 06Z sucks now, it took our snow away, etc., compared to the previous cycle. Then the more reasonable posts show that 06Z actually was pretty darned good...just not 20" perhaps! I mean really, come on! I don't buy it that anyone "won't be happy" with a 6-10" event as opposed to a 20" HECS vs. nothing (see: this Thursday's non-event!). A solid warning-level event that doesn't turn to complete slop would be nice...that's about where my expectations and hopes are...and some hope that we can perhaps maximize the potential for a more memorable event. Strangely, at this point, I feel a bit more confident about the Sunday-Monday potential, but that's subject to change, LOL!

PSU...I know I'm coming to this "party" late and referring to an image that's hours old. But, this one caught my eye for some reason. Remember showing the 850mb temps for this Thursday's non-event at one point? There was no real cold air wedge or damming. It was kind of a flat line through approximately the Ohio valley and east...pretty meh. My point is, this has a much different, more classical type of look in the loop you show here. Just something that occurred to me when I saw this. Of course, not necessarily the final result at this point...but there's better antecedent air among other things.

Light/moderate snow falling. Grass, cars, and even now paved areas are being coated. I'd estimate ~0.1-0.2" at this point. So January officially will not be a shutout...Yay for small victories!!

Light snow around the Chevy Chase area (near the Beltway). Official car-topper, with grass, mulch, and cars coated!

Whoa! Looks like @WxUSAF is gonna need a bigger tent!

Damn! At least say "SPOILER ALERT" before you give away the plot!

Ah, OK...LOL!!! So you meant "don't look at it" as in a good thing, hahaha! I just assumed it looked awful but I guess if the ops Euro was not far off from being really good, then the control would have to be at least that much.

Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? ETA: Or, one of those that's way offshore!

So it now appears that Sunday is the new Thursday?

Thank you, Red! Yes, "Shawshank" is one of my favorites, have seen it many times!!

Just hope we don't have the "Losestormtoa" storm!

LOL!! I hope you are doing well, friend, with everything going on! I don't expect much here where I'm at in terms of snow, but at least it might be interesting and a little bit wintry-looking!

Does this have a double meaning??

No worries, I kind of thought you probably didn't intend for it to come out quite that way. Regardless, even an inch or two with some sleet is making this a lot more interesting than I thought a day ago!

That's not really what he's doing here (though you may not have intended it to come across that way)... This doesn't mean "discount the NAM", it simply states don't use the ridiculous 10:1 snow maps when we're looking at not all snow in a marginal setup, but to use the other algorithms instead for this situation (and to use the 3-km NAM nest). 'd by @high risk himself, LOL!

High scoring shootout, perhaps?? Sure would look like it.

And don't forget the Euro then coming in with precip amounts that would shame a desert.

I know, right?! Dafuq is the NAM trying to do here??

The Reaper is on Yelp now? Maybe you can take AAA discounts too... And @WxWatcher007, agree with your comments about disappointment (over snow failures) and managing that. Can't deny how frustrating this year has been of course, and I truly wish we could get a decent warning-level criteria event. That would be fun. But in the end, really, what does it all matter how much we do or don't get (other than concerns about long term climate stuff, which we won't get into here!)? I've had my share of personal and other issues, not to mention just how awful 2020 was in general for any number of reasons outside that. But I also try to find some of the beauty in the world via my photography hobby. One thing about this last year, I've probably taken more photos than I had in any other year just because I'm "looking" more and some things catch my eye. Beyond that, of course, are the people in one's life that you care about. Anyhow, sorry to get too philosophical here on a weather board, but just wanted to throw that out there!