Scarlet Pimpernel

LOL at the GFS, out at the end of its run! @Ji already mentioned above that it's actually trying to set up a MECS at that time, whatever it's worth. Could that be the @psuhoffman "getting snow in an imperfect setup" scenario? The 500-mb pattern is a mess, lots of moving parts (yeah, I know, and ops at range, but...). I guess if things are actually trending better toward the 2nd week of February, this would perhaps indicate a lead into that transition?

Yeah, Ravens look quite formidable for sure. While the 49ers might be their toughest competition (assuming both end up in the SB), at this point I don't see how SF overcomes that. I mean, the Ravens did beat them soundly on the road. I'm sure SF would adjust but I don't see much of anyone beating Baltimore if they keep playing at that level. And I actually wouldn't totally rule out the Lions pulling an upset win next week for the NFC championship.

Definitely very wintry out today! Got this photo of a cardinal in the snow, they are such stunning birds especially with the red against the white of the snow!

I really look forward to celebrating another GUYS FOLKS day again this winter!!

Dafuq?!?!?!?!

That's fine...you were looking at a bit larger picture than what my comment was referring to. I was stating that it looked like crap and would be in any situation or time. I realize now that you were pointing to the fact that it looks remarkably warm damn near across the entire CONUS. Which gets to the "elephant in the room" discussion that I won't delve into here, but don't get me wrong, I am absolutely NOT a climate change denier, and I am not disputing your (or anyone else's) assessment on that.

Ahhh, so THAT'S why the pattern change is holding off!!! Models and ensembles actually have your calendar programmed in now???

I know, I know...but it's just not funny especially coming from someone who is well respected and knowledgeable (and I very much respect PSU's input and knowledge, don't get me wrong!). We get enough "regular" non-trolling whining and complaining in here as it is, why add to it?

I know @psuhoffman is kind of being a bit humorous and tongue-in-cheek with the "perfect track rainstorm" look. But really, the pattern and flow at that time is horrible. It's not like it's a marginal or halfway decent look yet we're still getting screwed, where previous years we'd have fared better. We wouldn't far well in ANY year with that pattern, I believe.

Yup, that's where I'm at now (and was at the time)! What was so striking about that first week of March 2015 is the fact that we actually got ice in the middle of the day, in March, and then that neat snow event a few days later. Likewise, 2014 was just incredible with the amount of snow we got in March!

I think both you and @Bob Chill are correct. In March 2014 we had 3 notable events...one early in the month (5.3" where I am), one on St. Patrick's Day (8"), and one on March 25 (3"). We even got a quick inch of snow on (I believe) the 30th after cold rain most of that day. That was a crazy, snowy March in a remarkable wall-to-wall winter. In 2015, I recall some light snow and decent icing around March 1-2, and more ice around the 3rd. Then we got a nice 6.5" snow on March 5. February that year featured extremely cold temperatures and a couple of solid events.

A houseful of meteorologists, all geeking out on the upcoming snow??? Oh my! I think that's illegal in like 32 states or something! Seriously though, glad you enjoyed a good week off, especially with such a wintry and cold week! Awesome!

Funny, but I miss the days when there were like 2-3 threats at once. People would jump into the "short" range one for the upcoming event, and as soon as that model discussion was done, everyone jumped into the medium range to check out the NEXT one!!!

Drunk...watching the HRRR...oh my!

Well, let's not go overboard here! But your overall point is valid, we could well over-perform on this one, hopefully. Certainly think a general 2-4" (DC metro area) is well on the table, which is a lot better than we were looking at the other day.

Yeah I was kind of looking at that, even if it's an ops deterministic at that range. Those are some serious HP systems, and even if they tend to get "kicked out" (with a +NAO), the implication seems to be there's still some cold air around and not far away. All the freaking out over next week's warmup seems a bit odd to me...for the past week, it's been WELL KNOWN (or so I thought!) that after this weekend, we'd be looking at a relax or warmup pattern for 7-10 days or there about. This is no surprise. Will it be a "torch"? I don't know, but even if it is relatively speaking, wouldn't it be good at least if the cold air source region in Canada remains cold (i.e., if Canada doesn't get flooded with Pac puke)? As you said above, this isn't the same kind of thing that we had coming out of December. I hold out reasonable hope and optimism that we have a favorable pattern sometime by the first part of February, and hopefully a return to some good -NAO blocking. In any event, the indications are for a pretty good +PNA ridge to form sometime toward the end of this month or so. I seriously don't think we get screwed for all of February into the first half of March (at least not yet, LOL!!).

Is it at least notably better for us, even if they get (relatively) hammered?

No problem, appreciate it. I wasn't trying to overdo banter, but sometimes a little humor in tense situations (especially since the NAM comes in so S-L-OOOOO-W-L-Y!) helps a bit! Sorry if I sounded harsh.

Same...I'm not able to get this quickly, but I wonder what (if anything?) is better perhaps at 500 mb, if that is the case.

Is there actually more separation between the wave of interest and the pesky "lead wave?" I'm wondering if that's what we might need here?

Might want to just ease up. We're not in storm mode yet for this thing and I'm usually respectful of that when it occurs. I'm just trying to add some humor to alleviate the tension or aggravation...at least I'm not sitting here posting 100 complaints that things suck.

(After further review...bitchy lead wave offsides...repeat 4th and 20 at 06Z tomorrow!)

We await review from the replay booth...

So the 0 hour NAM analysis isn't diggier??? Damn!