Scarlet Pimpernel

It would be nice to get a solid or better event that's cold powder, followed by some real cold to keep it around for awhile. But what I wouldn't want is very cold with nothing but bare, frozen ground. Not expecting a KU...but a nice overrunning type event falling into an Arctic push would be cool.

Probably some of its runs during Snowmageddon in 2010 or perhaps the Jan. 2016 blizzard.

ICON is notably colder Sunday afternoon compared to the NAM as well...

Looks like we hit around 40 or low 40s (in and around DC area, at least) Sunday afternoon after the precip ends, then it cools off quickly beginning in the evening into the mid-20s by middle of the night (for what that's worth out at 84h range).

If you click on the "+" symbol next to where it says "quote", this allows you to do a multi-quote including moving it to another thread. So you can do that, then go into Banter, and click the "Quote 1 post". ' by mappy!

Setting the ground rules right!!

Lot of model spelunking going on here!

Agree. Though I have a feeling the Euro is probably overdoing the extreme of the cold air. I'd much rather have the snow and some cold, it doesn't have to be Arctic-level here. Temps in the 20s and a nice overrunning event with cold smoke powder would be great! Much better than 5-10 and dry as a bone here while seeing snow/ice in GA/SC.

Yeah, verbatim (not worth much at this point I know!) looks like some kind of ice/snow mix across much of the area, but temperatures are quite cold. Good overrunning setup for sure.

Now when anyone busts out RuPaul, then we'll know for sure!!

It does look pretty good even though a fast-mover. It really trucks on through. Interestingly, it's rather cold too comparatively speaking.

I remember that. Coldest inauguration on record, I believe. (ETA: I was in northeast Ohio at the time, still in high school...and it was bitter cold in Ohio that month!)

4-5"+ of cold smoke powder as shown, given the temperatures.

Thanks for this! The only thing I would change about your post would be to remove the "No offense" part...screw it, offense is deserved for knee-jerk reactions about model performance like this. Personally, I found the comment to be an insult to those developers and scientists who have worked hard on the GFSv16 and its implementation. Mini-rant over.

The GFS has never really been "enthused" about Sunday. At most it seems to indicate possibly a squall or snow showers on the leading edge of the strong cold front.

The worst of the worst of the worst! Sir! (a'la "MIB"). ETA: Or, for those who are familiar, there's always "The Wurst of P.D.Q. Bach" (with Peter Schickele)!!

I think thus far, the past several runs, the GFS has been indicating more of a very strong frontal passage here for Sunday, with the southern low remaining well south. Haven't seen the GEFS.

I think perhaps one of the best things about this snow event was @Bob Chill's return! Honestly, last Friday afternoon when he showed up, it's like the mood of this board lightened up. Almost celebratory. I'm sure part of that was due to it being a Friday and part of it because the models were looking pretty good around that time. But mostly, I think a lot of people were just happy to see him come back, sort of signaling that "it's on"! A certain amount of the sniping and negativity was lifted, at least for awhile. I also thought his subtle return was amusing, with his "Hey peeps...how much for Rockville?" comment in the storm thread! At any rate, thanks for that, Bob!

Some good snow rotating through here now (just south of 495/Connecticut Ave.), nice size flakes coming down. Most of today was sleet with light freezing drizzle, then some fine-grain snow toward mid-afternoon. Good crust of ice on top of yesterday's snow; it's really slick in places.

You saw that too (on Pivotal)? It did look a little odd, that level of discrepancy. I suppose it's whatever algorithm they use for generating that plot, but that's a big difference and I otherwise can't think why it would be so. But I suppose those details don't really matter...the Euro is the only one (I think?) that blows up the system later this weekend like that; CMC and GFS have a different evolution.

Looks like all major deterministic globals (GFS, CMC, Euro) have that storm around Wednesday of next week (Feb. 10), to varying degrees. They all originate from the same general area (around the Gulf, or near TX/LA). The big difference this time is that it doesn't look like we'll be relying upon some kind of lucky or complicated coastal transfer. Rather, a storm attacking very cold air that will be in place. Even the extreme solution of the Euro, which takes a bomb up through the Bay, the DC area looks like it's below freezing (changes to sleet or some kind of mix, but who cares about those details right now?). I haven't seen the ensembles yet, but I would wager they look quite interesting. ETA: My bad (sorry!), the bomb storm that goes up through the Bay on the Euro is later this weekend, not the thing next Wednesday. But everything else is right...all models show something middle of next week.

CMC similar to the GFS for the weekend with blasting a front through, but actually a little later it appears (more like Sunday night as opposed to earlier in the day). I'll have what the CMC is smokin' for next Wednesday (Feb. 10)!

Yes...just looking at that now, myself. It definitely looks very much like the event in Feb. 2015 with a couple hours squall followed by a literal blast of cold (2" snow at my place from that). That is a strikingly similar look, honestly, if it were to play out as shown.

Just be sure to avoid HRDPS-ies Simplex 2 when looking at that model!!