Scarlet Pimpernel

A back yard that looks like it has some nice playground equipment?

Maybe the models are feeling verklempt! They must talk amongst themselves!

Yeah, if we can't get a decent snow, I guess the next "best" thing in terms of interesting stuff would be sleet and ice! Or I'd prefer that to 30s and cold rain at least. Honestly, in the time I've been here (since 2001) I cannot recall a really good ice event with the exception of Feb. 2007 I think. We've had some light ice accumulation here and there around the metro DC area. But the sleet bomb in 2007 stands out to me most. Maybe the sleet in March a couple of years back, too.

That is really close there around and just above 850mb, looks right at or a hair below 0. I'd think rates would cool it, if they're good enough. Not to over-analyze such details this far out, but yeah, that is still interesting.

Very interesting map of the snowfall reports from @MN Transplant showed, and the corresponding NAM nest from @high risk. Definite cutoff as you get closer to the beltway. I'm just inside the beltway on the northwest side of DC (Chevy Chase area), and got ~0.5" snow/sleet.

Yeah, realized more of what you meant after what I wrote, LOL! Sorry about that. Not quite sure how to answer that, though. I kinda agree with @psuhoffman, the trend has been less interaction of the NS shortwave with the SS, and these systems have tended to end up farther south, rather than plowing right through a big high with strong blocking. Or at least the CAD hangs on a lot more than indicated farther out in time. Obviously, snow would be preferable for any of these potential events. But absent that, I'd certainly prefer a sleet-fest (or ice) over cold rain any day!

...but not a Short Pump.

Check out the 850 temperatures. They're above 0 nearly the entire time. Not sure of any other levels. ETA: And south winds at 850 as well.

And still hammering a sleet bomb with temps in the 20s DC/Balt and southeast. But snow is maybe not that far to their west.

And then advance to more clever double entendres when you grow up!!

Uhhh...more people attending your parties?

Just some people comparing outdoor deck sizes and how much they can hold at parties.

Is this for what is supposed to be the sleet bomb?

Don't forget Chernobyl...

Putting the "F" in GFS!!

Agree. @Wentzadelphia I think is a good guy, and adds to the conversation. But yeah, need to read the room a bit more concerning the mood before posting something worded like that. He may be right about next week, who knows, but no point in expounding on how it won't work right now. Only other thing is, he really needs to keep his phone charged, LOL (gotta throw in some humor there, Wentz)!!!

It definitely gives one a DEFLATED feeling!!!

I looked outside and also walked around taking some photos while it was still pretty out. Biggest concern I had was that my camera might get wet (fortunately has some element of weather sealing)!!

Yeah, I think I ran across that comment you made at some point looking through this thread. Very good point that some of these maps kill intelligent discussion. They can be eye candy and fun to look at, but beyond that, gotta keep it real so to speak. But to say "The ECMWF took away 22" of my snow!!" is just plain aggravating to read again, and again, and again.

Oh, I know what you mean! Same as it is every year. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure to some extent we all get disappointed or deflated if snow chances or amounts slip through our fingers and go downhill. But it's no fun to read through pages and pages of complaints and debbie downers. I admit at times to feeling frustrated, sure...but I try not to litter this place with useless whining.

I saw that, and it was pretty ugly. Sorry that all happened. On your point about forecasts, I'll generally agree at least in part. Models do in a way make "forecasts", as in the complex mathematical equations to estimate the physics and thermodynamics, etc., are designed to project the atmospheric state for X number of hours into the future. But they are obviously limited by the approximations that must be made for a complicated and chaotic environment, so have their errors, biases, etc. And there's a certain amount of post-processing done to get the various outputs we see now, based on whatever algorithms are programmed to do so. Parameters that the models don't actually compute themselves, but are done after to make things more "human readable" so to speak (e.g., 2-m temperature, precip type, snow maps). I guess what I'm saying is that yes, models are actually more "guidance" than a "forecast", and it's up to scientists/meteorologists to interpret that with their own expertise and knowledge of those models to make an actual forecast. Not saying this all to be snarky in any way...but it's an interesting philosophical discussion if that makes sense.

Sounds like Dante's Inferno for moderators...

Thank you, thank you, thank you! Everyone sees the occasional crazy snow map that gives us a foot or more and clings to that. Then it comes back to more reality for the given synoptic setup and there's a freak out. Nice to see and laugh about excessive amounts that get urped up now and then, but otherwise, come on folks! That said, sure it's disappointing to see things sort of "dry up" more. But this event (or events, 2 waves?) was never going to be an area-wide big time producer of snow. I had my mind kind of hoping for 3-5" or 3-6" on the more upper end; probably won't reach that where I am now, but even 2-4" is nice at this point. Given that barely a week ago this looked like ice to rain, I'd have to call a decent advisory-level snowfall a win. And it won't be like this past Sunday where it all melted 2 hours later (at least where I'm at...but looked pretty while it was snowing!). Fact is, tonight and tomorrow look wintry. That's mostly my take-away here.

Yeah, it's been really persistent about that for awhile now. I hope that's not necessarily correlated with the now notably higher QPF amounts (for first wave)...i.e., we can only get higher precip if we get the mix around this area.