Scarlet Pimpernel

Haha, so true! I swear there are times when my daughter could get sassy over the years and I'd let it go but at the same time think to myself, "I'd NEVER be able to say that to MY parents...and get away with it!!" LOL!! Ahhh, but the time does fly and she was a good kid (still a kid to me even at age 22!). Mine just graduated college this past May (U MD) and I swear it feels like yesterday that she was just starting high school, or even middle school! I find myself getting really sentimental at times!

Bit of an off-the-wall question but is there a reason that the RGEM has that sort of pockmarked "globby" look in its snow field?

The key is that it drops ~0.75-1.00" QPF by that point, huge thump right there. Whereas the NAM was a lot drier for the snow part (and of course it had an earlier flip as well).

Using the 6" line for reference, it looks like that now bows out more to the southeast, which is nice to see. Can't recall if that's similar to 18Z and earlier but still.

No matter what happens, Severe Aveeno Alerts have been issued for dry, chapped skin!!

977-mb off the coast of NJ??? Holy F***!!

Goon worthy even!

Nicely placed high pressures to the west and north!

Yeah we need to keep @Ralph Wiggum from prematurely gooning!

Well, you can let yourself recover enough to goon over the 2nd window!!!!

Does the flip hold (in the DC area at least) until at least 18Z still? That's my goal, to at least hold all or mostly snow until then to maximize amounts in the overnight and Sunday morning period before the sleet bomb.

Prematurely, one might say???

FWIW, I have always liked your PBP and much appreciate the reserved caution. And that goes both ways, whether it's looking better or worse. You present it factually and do your best to not impart a bunch of emotion (happy or upset), until the run is completed. I mean, when it looks better while things are still in progress coming out, you're cautious which is a good thing...and when the final result is in, you'll give the FOLKS or GUYS or maybe even JAWS (if we get an event of that magnitude!). But even if it's looking like crap, you don't go all whiney about it like all too many in here, you just state that it's not good and "on to the next run", something like that.

I think also, the NAM is showing much less in terms of the front end big QPF/snow thump? That is, it's a bit drier during the "key" period and only gets heavier after the flip. We're essentially guaranteed to flip to...something (hopefully sleet, not freezing rain!)...but we need to maximize the QPF Saturday night into Sunday and hopefully hold off any flip until 15-18Z if we can manage. The last Euro (and its AI counterpart), I thought, wasn't too bad overall? It still had a solid thump of snow. Certainly better than the NAM and the RRFS I think as well.

Actually I thought one of those 850 plots someone showed a page or two ago showed the primary at 18Z pushing notably farther north, like up toward the Ohio River in WV, there about, with a broad closed extension north and south through there. Whereas it was weaker and farther south at 12Z. I think it was the RRFS? Either way...I am not saying that's going to be correct, but clearly some of the models are (perhaps the NAM as well, maybe not so much the globals?) doing that.

Yeesh, if that happens! I've experienced a couple of really nasty ice storms in Atlanta when I lived there years ago. Pouring rain but the temperatures were below freezing, and that was a relative disaster. But...it was not that far below freezing when it occurred. I can only imagine moderate-heavy ZR with temps in the low-mid 20s.

Really? Lots of ZR even up into DC and beyond, rather than mostly or all sleet? ETA: What time about does any flip occur, and how much QPF in that time beforehand?

Ummm, just NO. The models and forecasters are absolutely NOT ignoring the strong Arctic high. As others said above, even with a very strong high anchored, the dynamics counteract that at least to some extent. Not saying the NAM or RRFS is or will be right, but it's not like as depicted the strong high is "ignored." Likewise, forecasters are certainly not blowing it off either. This is a mid-level layer issue and still uncertain exactly how that will evolve or how much.

Interesting snippet from LWX's latest AFD. I bolded the part that stood out to me, involving heavy sleet at times and possibly "a few inches" of sleet accumulation! If that happens...wow...that would be an unreal sleet bomb, bigger than what I got in Feb. 2007 (and this will be a LOT colder too). They've adjusted the Saturday night and Sunday accumulations of snow/sleet a bit but still generally in the same range as before at least for the DC metro. While this event will start as a period of heavy snow (potentially 1-2"/hr at times) overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, a potent warm nose aloft will quickly transition most locales to sleet by mid-morning. Now, this will be very heavy sleet at times, especially before the afternoon, so even the sleet accumulations could amount to a few inches. Hence, the storm total snow forecast you will see on weather.gov/lwx/winter will be showing the combination of snow and sleet.

Can we please keep political bullshit out of this?

Thing is, overall the Euro doesn't look bad for us either. It's not like the GFS of course, but we still do quite well.

Exactly. Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen. But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot! It's a Nina! I better start backing off on snow amounts!"

The halcyon days when we were concerned about such things!!!