Scarlet Pimpernel

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Biblical east coast storm. The elite class of em. 1996, first 2010 storm, and 2016

True story...for that first 2010 storm (Feb. 5-6), I purposely picked up some Becks beer (yeah, I know, not the best) to enjoy during that event!  Becks for the BECS!!! 

2 hours ago, H2O said:

A Christmas Story is my jam on Xmas eve. Watch it with my kids every year

You'll shoot your eye out, kid!

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Oh fuuuuuuuuuuuudge.

Life Buoy for you!!

Happy Christmas to all!  Best wishes to all for a wonderful Holiday!

Since there's some discussion of movies, here are some that I always like every year (at least as many as I can watch):

--Scrooge (the one with Albert Finney, from the early '70s, a semi-musical)

--It's a Wonderful Life

--Die Hard (yes, it's a Christmas movie, much discussion was had about that a few years back!!)

--Miracle on 34th Street

--Christmas Story (a Finnish version, very touching and nice!)

--A Christmas Story (yeah, that one, with Ralphie and the Red Ryder BB gun!)

--Home Alone

--The Santa Clause

--Any of the old animated classics...Grinch who Stole Christmas, Santa Claus is Coming to Town, etc.!

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is encouraging that the looks on the ens have not degraded and have even shown improvements. Moving up in time as well instead of the usual can-kicking. High lats are a thing of beauty, even 'mint' as some have called it.

Mmmm, who doesn't like MINT at this time of year!  Myself, I love the Holiday mint M&Ms!!  Stock up on those every December!

Just now, poolz1 said:

I know ops are just for entertainment purposes in the 10-15 but I do like to see potential on them....even in the LR.  

Isn't that what we want to start seeing, though?  Some really nice, even wacky solutions showing up in the deterministic and individual ensemble members out at longer range.  Then of course hopefully hone in on a real one as it gets closer in time.  I thought that was a problem last year, with all the drool-worthy looks for February in the extra-extended ensembles and such.  It looked great on those plots, but we never really saw the "big, wild hits" show up, even from individual ensemble members.  I think it was @Bob Chill who pointed that out, saying that while it looked great on those extended means, he wasn't too thrilled with what was "under the hood."

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s getting HECS-y on the EURO

 

 

Does this post break the record for the number of different emoji reactions?  It's like an ensemble spread! 

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Only 52 more cycles until the event kicks off.

Respectable signal on the ens for this distance. Fingers crossed!

 

Just now, 87storms said:

Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice.

Damn.  sun angle is working against us now after the official solstice late last night!

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it 

Likewise, I live in suburban MD now.  For several years I lived in DC, around the Capitol Hill neighborhood.  But even there, I noticed the amount of snow I got was more than what DCA reported (not hugely different, but noticeable!).

10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The winter of 2015-2016 is a perfect example of this. It was a shutout until that one event saved winter.

Not only a shutout prior to that big storm, but record warmth that December beforehand!  I still recall going out Christmas Eve and it was literally hazy and humid out.  A lot of people like to frown on that winter as a one-and-done failure.  That is sort of true, but I think people overlook that we actually were a little colder than normal that January (when the blizzard occurred) into the first half of February.  We also did get a small snow/ice event around Presidents' Day.  And I think there were a couple of other at least small trackable threats that ended up not happening.

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. 

Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. 

Imagine that. 

10 hours ago, bncho said:

Spoof totals to excite the snow weenies!
IAD: 32.8”
DCA: 25.9”
BWI: 29.1”
 

Meh...DCA will still find a way to never record more than 17.8 inches, even while locations right nearby are pushing 3 feet!! 

12 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

And the winter got even better 

Yeah, unreal to think that the December 2009 HECS was just the start (actually, it started earlier that month with a light amount of snow on the "famous" Dec. 5!).  I still have to say, that 12 day period from Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010 was the most concentrated snowy period I've seen, and I grew up in northeast Ohio where I've experienced a lot of snowy winters!  In that 12 days, we got two moderate events and two HECS-level storms, and I measured a total of 46.8" in that time.

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards).

I was just thinking this the other day, at least for this area.  Yeah, haven't had any snow this month other than maybe a couple of stray flakes.  But to my knowledge, it's been one of the colder Decembers I can remember in awhile.  Not extreme, but some solidly cold days and nights.  Not those nearly 65 degree humid evenings!  In fact, I saw that even DCA is about a degree or so below normal on the month so far.  So if we avoid any torch the rest of the month, I'd have to say it's more in line with a "typical" December than we've seen.

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I like everything I see right now but no cold and no snow (for nearly 3 years lol) makes bobchill go something something.... 

Imo- as depicted, it's not a dry pattern and sets up the gulf/TN Valley connection. Broad bowl shape trough with blocking. Has the 8:30am-2:30pm trajectory look to me. I'm not sure further north than say Philly should like this setup except for cold. Not a big storm look up north and 3-6" only makes SNE'ers angry, apparently lolol. 

It's also not a nina pattern. There has been minimal classic Nina stuff at all so far imo other than NS activity. NH flow hasn't followed the rules and continues to look like a rebel. Current ens guidance looks like a nino lol

Uh, oh...are cute puppies and fuzzy bunnies at risk of being kicked??

The advertised pattern going into the first part of January does look good, though I understand the caution (especially after what happened last winter, weeks of "great looks" that disappeared as it got within 10 days).  I'd take a solid, moderate warning-level event any day, that sticks around for a bit afterward!  Funny that SNE'ers would be angry at "only" a 3-6" storm!  In these parts, there'd be partying in the streets if an area-wide event like that occurred!

17 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is funny in a way that I toss junk out in my yard and those bucks are a common site tbh. Yet don the camo, put the cover spray on, use a call, and sit in a blind for 12 hrs and see nothing. My neighbor who avidly hunts is always cursing under his breath when he sees them in the yard lol. 

On the grounds of the apartment complex I used to live, there was a deer family with a doe and two fawns that would come by this courtyard area and just hang out, eat the grass, whatever.  I could actually sit there on the steps watching them from literally maybe as close as 20 feet and they didn't seem to mind me (or my camera, taking photos).  I actually think they got used to me, I saw them there quite often.   So here's your daily dose of cuteness!...

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Now if we can butter baste our steak...

There's a @ravensrule comment in there somewhere, I'm sure!

On 12/17/2024 at 8:53 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

This little guy wandered into my yard after I tossed out a pumpkin for the squirrels. 

Wow, that's a BIG squirrel!  I didn't know they had antlers either!!  

Fattening him up I see, to have venison for Christmas dinner?!  (That second photo, looks like he's thinking, "Dafuq you lookin' at???")

Yes, happy anniversary to you @mappy!!  Hard to believe it's been 15 years since that amazing December HECS at the same time!

Would you believe, I've just written a masterpiece as I was tying my cravat!  Yes, a little Christmas ditty for the season, appropriate for the Panic Room!  I hope the Reaper @WxWatcher007 approves!  Well, here it is...

The Twelve Days of Reaping

On the first day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Ji canceling winter in a pear tree!

On the second day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Two skeletons!
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the third day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Three shovels digging!
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the fourth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Four gravesite headstones!
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the fifth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the sixth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Six gallows waiting!
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the seventh day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Seven scythes swathing!
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the eighth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Eight souls a’screamin'!
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,

Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesites headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the ninth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Nine Debbie-downers cryin’!
Eight souls a’screamin’,
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the tenth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Ten axes grinding!
Nine Debbie-downers cryin’,
Eight souls a’screamin’,
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the eleventh day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Eleven brand new caskets !
Ten axes grinding,
Nine Debbie-downers cryin’,
Eight souls a’screamin’,
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the twelfth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Twelve weenies jumping!
Eleven brand new caskets,
Ten axes grinding,
Nine Debbie-downers cryin’,
Eight souls a;screamin’,
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree!!!!!

Happy Reaping!
 

45 minutes ago, jayyy said:

You’ve been known to do the same from time to time. You also cancelled winter like 5 days  MONTHS ago lol

Love ya Ji


.

FYP!!

42 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Also, everyone stop uttering the words B__ D__ in here. What the phuck is wrong with yall

Big Di*k?  Big Dog?  Birth Date?  Bull Durham?  A holiday celebrated in Great Britain the day after Christmas??  Don't know at all what you mean!!!

On 12/4/2024 at 4:09 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I considered coming out of retirement. 

To paraphrase LOTR:

Weenies:  "The beacons!  The beacons of the Panic Room are lit!  Weenies call for aid!"

(Long pause...)

@WxWatcher007:  "And the Reaper will answer!  Muster the skeletons and headstones!"

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Things like that always weaken the resolve to not look, lol

3 hours ago, mappy said:

I’m selfishly glad those fantasy snowstorms didn’t work out this week. It’s tech week at the studio, with a holiday recital Saturday. Would have been more stressful with a snowstorm in the mix 

I totally hear you on that (as much as I love snow), having dealt with a similar situation when my daughter was doing ballet years ago.  The school let students participate in the Washington Ballet's "Nutcracker" each year, and she was in that a few times.  Typically nothing bad in terms of weather occurred (other than rain!).  But in Dec. 2013, there was some ice event the night I had to take her downtown to the Warner Theatre in DC for one performance, and that was an adventure I could have done without!

13 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Ok ill ask the dumb question......what he hell is a curmudgeon?? Lol

A bad-tempered and bitter (old) man.

7 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

 

19 minutes ago, IronTy said:

This one is a lot more realistic for us...

But the real question is...when do we reach THIS point where we just don't give a shit (then it's Reaper time!):

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

CAPE has had all he can stand and he can't stands no more

LOL sounds like two minds with but a single thought, I just had to respond as well!