Scarlet Pimpernel

Meh...DCA will still find a way to never record more than 17.8 inches, even while locations right nearby are pushing 3 feet!!

Yeah, unreal to think that the December 2009 HECS was just the start (actually, it started earlier that month with a light amount of snow on the "famous" Dec. 5!). I still have to say, that 12 day period from Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010 was the most concentrated snowy period I've seen, and I grew up in northeast Ohio where I've experienced a lot of snowy winters! In that 12 days, we got two moderate events and two HECS-level storms, and I measured a total of 46.8" in that time.

I was just thinking this the other day, at least for this area. Yeah, haven't had any snow this month other than maybe a couple of stray flakes. But to my knowledge, it's been one of the colder Decembers I can remember in awhile. Not extreme, but some solidly cold days and nights. Not those nearly 65 degree humid evenings! In fact, I saw that even DCA is about a degree or so below normal on the month so far. So if we avoid any torch the rest of the month, I'd have to say it's more in line with a "typical" December than we've seen.

Uh, oh...are cute puppies and fuzzy bunnies at risk of being kicked?? The advertised pattern going into the first part of January does look good, though I understand the caution (especially after what happened last winter, weeks of "great looks" that disappeared as it got within 10 days). I'd take a solid, moderate warning-level event any day, that sticks around for a bit afterward! Funny that SNE'ers would be angry at "only" a 3-6" storm! In these parts, there'd be partying in the streets if an area-wide event like that occurred!

On the grounds of the apartment complex I used to live, there was a deer family with a doe and two fawns that would come by this courtyard area and just hang out, eat the grass, whatever. I could actually sit there on the steps watching them from literally maybe as close as 20 feet and they didn't seem to mind me (or my camera, taking photos). I actually think they got used to me, I saw them there quite often. So here's your daily dose of cuteness!...

There's a @ravensrule comment in there somewhere, I'm sure!

Wow, that's a BIG squirrel! I didn't know they had antlers either!! Fattening him up I see, to have venison for Christmas dinner?! (That second photo, looks like he's thinking, "Dafuq you lookin' at???")

Yes, happy anniversary to you @mappy!! Hard to believe it's been 15 years since that amazing December HECS at the same time!

Would you believe, I've just written a masterpiece as I was tying my cravat! Yes, a little Christmas ditty for the season, appropriate for the Panic Room! I hope the Reaper @WxWatcher007 approves! Well, here it is... The Twelve Days of Reaping On the first day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Ji canceling winter in a pear tree! On the second day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Two skeletons! And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the third day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Three shovels digging! Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the fourth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Four gravesite headstones! Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the fifth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Five…Hapless…Souls! Four gravesite headstones, Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the sixth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Six gallows waiting! Five…Hapless…Souls! Four gravesite headstones, Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the seventh day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Seven scythes swathing! Six gallows waiting, Five…Hapless…Souls! Four gravesite headstones Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the eighth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Eight souls a’screamin'! Seven scythes swathing, Six gallows waiting, Five…Hapless…Souls! Four gravesites headstones, Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the ninth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Nine Debbie-downers cryin’! Eight souls a’screamin’, Seven scythes swathing, Six gallows waiting, Five…Hapless…Souls! Four gravesite headstones, Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the tenth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Ten axes grinding! Nine Debbie-downers cryin’, Eight souls a’screamin’, Seven scythes swathing, Six gallows waiting, Five…Hapless…Souls! Four gravesite headstones, Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the eleventh day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Eleven brand new caskets ! Ten axes grinding, Nine Debbie-downers cryin’, Eight souls a’screamin’, Seven scythes swathing, Six gallows waiting, Five…Hapless…Souls! Four gravesite headstones, Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree. On the twelfth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me… Twelve weenies jumping! Eleven brand new caskets, Ten axes grinding, Nine Debbie-downers cryin’, Eight souls a;screamin’, Seven scythes swathing, Six gallows waiting, Five…Hapless…Souls! Four gravesite headstones, Three shovels digging, Two skeletons, And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree!!!!! Happy Reaping!

FYP!! Big Di*k? Big Dog? Birth Date? Bull Durham? A holiday celebrated in Great Britain the day after Christmas?? Don't know at all what you mean!!!

To paraphrase LOTR: Weenies: "The beacons! The beacons of the Panic Room are lit! Weenies call for aid!" (Long pause...) @WxWatcher007: "And the Reaper will answer! Muster the skeletons and headstones!"

I totally hear you on that (as much as I love snow), having dealt with a similar situation when my daughter was doing ballet years ago. The school let students participate in the Washington Ballet's "Nutcracker" each year, and she was in that a few times. Typically nothing bad in terms of weather occurred (other than rain!). But in Dec. 2013, there was some ice event the night I had to take her downtown to the Warner Theatre in DC for one performance, and that was an adventure I could have done without!

A bad-tempered and bitter (old) man.

But the real question is...when do we reach THIS point where we just don't give a shit (then it's Reaper time!):

LOL sounds like two minds with but a single thought, I just had to respond as well!

Haha, I think the both of us were working up a response to this ridiculous argument. I wrote a response but moved it to the Banter thread.

Moving this to the Banter thread where I think my reply would be more appropriate. I don't normally like to step into these things too much, but am compelled to do so here... This isn't about free speech. It's not like your post was deleted by mods or anything like that. Besides, this board is a privately run entity (not run by or sponsored by the government!), so mods or administrators can set the rules, remove posts, or move them to a more appropriate thread as they see fit (and they have done that). You're not being freakin' censored for what you said, dude! @high risk merely said to stop spouting nonsense about models; it's not like he said you have no right to express your opinion (he even said "please" stop spouting nonsense!). Free speech does not mean freedom from consequences or pushback. If you say something that is out of line or wrong, someone has the right to call you out on it. While I agree with you on the point that too many here cling to every single model cycle and incremental change (with much tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth!), I'll still say you have a stunningly negative and myopic view about numerical weather prediction. Most people who know what they're talking about, and who are not being overly weenie-ish, are well aware of the biases and limitations of models. They use them as appropriate tools, and are able to impart their knowledge and expertise to make an assessment; they aren't model worshippers.

I know, right? It's really beyond insulting with his comments and assertions. It insults the scientists and programmers who work hard and diligently on NWP and it displays an almost willful lack of understanding on how to use and interpret numerical models.

Well, to be fair (you shouldn't be too hard on yourself), I think a lot of people were getting pretty bullish in January of last winter for our prospects in February. The longer range models kept showing a classic El Nino with blocking, strong southern jet, etc. It looked like an absolutely ripe snow pattern that would continue for weeks into early March. Like drool-worthy. However, as we got into late January, and as that time period got more in range with the regular ensembles, that great pattern evaporated quickly. We all know what happened afterward (nothing, in terms of winter!). Honestly, I still don't quite know what happened or why things suddenly appeared to flip to nearly the opposite of what was being advertised day after day after day for awhile. But I do recall something @Bob Chill mentioned, a caution, that he didn't quite like what he was seeing "under the hood." And it was either Chill or perhaps you and others as well, who mentioned that as that time got closer, we really didn't see "big hits" on ensemble members showing up, which you normally would see with such an advertised pattern. And that raised some red flags.

Ahhh, the onset of winter with the possibility of snow the first part of December! I await "Guys Folks Day" from @stormtracker for one event sometime in the not too distant future! Or, dare we dream and hope for the ultimate...Jaws music???

Fair enough, that's fine. I hope I am waaaay underestimating snow for everyone, of course, and would gladly be much too far on the low end. Thanks!

Well, no, I actually don't think it's an absolute shutout at DCA or anywhere. My "negative" snow amount guess was just for humor. In all seriousness, I can see this winter being like last year in the end. Nothing great, not even really close, but definitely not as awful as 2022-23 (when I literally got 0.5" on the season, that melted by 10AM the morning it fell!). So...something like a couple of weeks that actually feel wintry, with maybe a couple of minor to moderate events. Just a wild-ass thought and guess.

My useless, wild guesses pulled from the nether regions! Hopefully vastly underestimated! BWI: 3.0" DCA: -2.5" IAD: 2.2" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker...SBY: 4.4" --------------------------------- And yeah, I put a NEGATIVE value for DCA, just for fun! I was reminded of that old SNL skit years ago, called "Chicago Superfans" that had all these guys in a bar (including George Wendt, who was Norm on "Cheers"!) drinking beer and eating fatty chicken wings, saying "Da BEARS!!!" every 5 seconds. It was funny! At the end they would predict the score of the upcoming Bears' game (always a Bears' win, of course!). One time, one of them said something like, "Bears 92, Lions -20!!" (or some negative score). One of them asked, "How can they get a negative score, that's not possible!" To which the other replied, "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!" So...my feeling is, "Hey, DCA will find a way!!"

Congrats! I have a couple of friends who were runners years ago and did marathons, so I know that's quite the accomplishment!