Scarlet Pimpernel

Ahhh, thank you very much sir! That makes sense. Again, I do like the cluster of western solutions in there.

You don't even have to squint!!!

The control member of an ensemble system would essentially be a lower res version of the deterministic. Maybe @MillvilleWx meant that the ensemble mean is a bit to the east relative to the deterministic? At any rate, the main thing that I see is that there's a good clustering to the west there.

Hmm, I'm a bit confused or maybe I mis-read something. But @MillvilleWx said the EC was at the eastern end of the envelope of its own ensembles. The image you show where you add the deterministic EC (in blue) actually shows the opposite of that (it's in the cluster of the western solutions)?? Again, maybe I misunderstood what he was indicating before.

Great writeup in your WPC analysis, and great thoughts! I believe some pages back in this thread, someone posted the EC ensembles and they were clearly clustered more to the west and the deterministic was on the eastern end of the spread as you mention. Don't know if anyone posted the GEFS (if that's relevant), whether they're farther west than the deterministic GFS, etc.

Right...there's always a difference between "snowfall" and "snow depth". Obviously when it's cold, there shouldn't be huge differences, though you can have settling and compacting even in relatively short periods of time. But it's easy to accumulate a decent amount on, say, grassy surfaces (or a legitimate snowboard), only to have it compact down/melt/whatever and be less some hours later. All depends on rates with marginal temperatures. ETA: And I'm honestly not sure how those "positive snow depth" maps are generated or what algorithm is used.

This really is a tough situation especially taking temperatures into account, etc. I'm usually loath to be "critical" but I do find this to be a bit of an odd snowfall distribution. Some of the areas that are currently under a warning actually have less than warning criteria on that expected snowfall map. Also, just checking WPC's 50th percentile amounts, it has been showing significantly more (on the order of ~6-10" near DC, with higher as you go northeast and to the east of the Bay). I would absolutely not want to be on the hot seat making decisions on this, for sure!

Yeah...I generally just give a quick look for an overview on TT or some such site, plus it goes out farther than the 3km nest. But when honing in on things, 3km is typically the way to go.

Certainly for temperatures and thermal profiles at least.

Speaking of that 2nd storm in Feb. 2010 (Feb. 9-10)...I've shared this before, but out of all the photos I took during that incredible winter, this is my favorite. Cars still buried from the storm a few days earlier, almost seemingly groaning under the weight of yet MORE snow. And those snowflakes were like parachutes, plus temperatures were in the 20s with screaming winds.

First tropical system of the season???

Does it crash temps (relatively speaking) after 18Z sometime?

Maybe not "smoke" per se, but pasted with mashed potatoes sticking to every single surface if that verifies!!

I was just about to say, if this works out, a Sunday evening Jebwalk will be in order (with camera in hand)!!