Scarlet Pimpernel

Can we please keep political bullshit out of this?

Thing is, overall the Euro doesn't look bad for us either. It's not like the GFS of course, but we still do quite well.

Exactly. Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen. But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot! It's a Nina! I better start backing off on snow amounts!"

The halcyon days when we were concerned about such things!!!

Holy crap! That's like an alternate version of @Scraff's beer fridge!!!

Approx. the same or even better than 18Z, I believe?

Hopefully the QPF amounts are better, after 18Z was rather anemic. That seems to be the biggest thing if we want a solid thump of heavy snow before any flip to sleet/ice.

FYP for ya!!

It's the gift that keeps on giving! Ask Clark Griswold!!!

I know, right?!?! Hell, I grew up in northeast Ohio in the '70s and '80s and recall the record bitter cold winter of 1976-77. Temp in Cleveland was below freezing from the last part of December through the first week of February. Dinosaurs froze up on the roads, for those families well off enough to have a dinosaur for transportation. It was an icy walk to school uphill both ways!! (But in all seriousness, that was an incredible winter and extreme cold over the entire eastern US. That and the following one, 1977-78!).

I mean yeah...I think the GFS is out there on its own right now and is at this point the absolute best possible outcome. But even the other models (other than maybe the 18Z NAM) give a solid amount of snow Saturday night into at least early Sunday morning, and the consensus seems to be on the order of ~6-10" total (snow plus the snow/sleet we get Sunday) in the metro areas DC-Balt, with more northwest of there. At this point in the game, NOBODY should be surprised that we're going to mix and/or change to sleet for awhile at some point. That's been hammered by every piece of guidance for awhile now.

C'mon people! This BS should be in the Banter thread. It adds nothing to the discussion and is merely doom posting and whine-casting. I'm not saying we should have all "rah-rah!" stuff in here for the most positive model depictions, but comments like this with no support or background do nothing...and I'll say that now even IF this ends up being the case. Should we be a bit alarmed by something like the NAM result earlier? Sure, a bit cautious. But we tend to be overly cautious in this region anyhow which is fine. But even that, which appears to be the worst possible scenario, doesn't mean we should "accept that it might be right" hands-down right now. (ETA: And even the NAM solution is somewhat better than what you're saying here.)

That's what I thought and was my understanding. So you might figure (for DC) ~8" of pure snow plus another couple inches of snow/sleet after that, perhaps. Or something on that order. The point-click forecast is currently going 5-9" overnight Saturday and then snow/sleet Sunday (with no estimate yet on amount).

Wonder if they're including an estimated sleet accumulation on top of whatever snow in that total, that map goes through Sunday evening.

That's got to be one of the (maybe THE) most expansive areas of winter storm watches/warnings I've seen. And some of the watches/warnings are actually "hidden" beneath the cold weather advisory color (light blue, e.g., in KS, MO, IL, IN, OH, PA, etc.).