Scarlet Pimpernel

We've seen that happen, too, in the past. As one example, February 2015 here in the mid-Atlantic. From January up to about Valentine's Day, it was a pretty tame and blah winter. We missed out on some events that gave us rain and drizzle. Then an Arctic front with a blast of snow and cold went through on Feb. 14, and that ushered in a ~3 week period with an extremely cold rest of February and early March along with some decent moderate wintry events. No, it wasn't any kind of HECS-level thing but the pattern then was a lot different than this look (it wouldn't have been conducive to a major storm). Yet we still managed all that in a short turnaround time.

And, the weeklies have been pretty well dead-on consistent if I'm not mistaken, for the past many runs? The latter part of the ensemble runs (not just the EPS but the GEFS) have also been "leading into" what the Euro weeklies show if I interpret that correctly. To me, that's a very good sign, no "can kicking" or anything like that. I even think the wild looks we're seeing for the first week of February were hinted at, as the sort of transition period. Hopefully this will all hold for February into the early part of March. At some point in the next week we should see some of the ops runs do "interesting" things...they already are, in fact.

First, JB with the Sistine Chapel, and now this?!?!?!

I wasn't here for that event (hadn't moved to the area just yet), but my understanding is that yeah, it looked like no more than flurries. Then suddenly the Jan. 24, 2000 18Z Eta (mesoscale model at the time) on the afternoon right before it hit showed the low a lot farther north with warning-level snow. And it only increased thereafter. I heard that on the late evening local news/weather, they were scurrying to mention newly-issued winter storm warnings for later that night and the next day. Gotta love reverse busts!

Here's a more detailed look at this H5 pattern...

Wait, it's the Republicans' fault???? (Just kidding, for anyone who thinks this is possibly too "political" sounding!)

Barry Bonds called...he wants his 'roids back!

I lived in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC for several years in the early 2000s before moving to southern MoCo. I can't say offhand whether the temperatures were much different there compared to DCA; I'd guess not all that much. But in the time I was in that location I know the snow amounts I received were consistently higher than what came out of DCA. Anytime I saw reports from a snow event, those in the District proper likewise tended to be higher; that still is the case (e.g., during the 2016 blizzard I recall seeing several 20"+ reports from the District even as DCA recorded "only" 17.8") I actually found the snow reports from the National Arboretum to be a reasonable compromise amount for DC proper.

Wow, and that's Feb. 3 while we're still apparently in the "transition" phase or whatever. Does that big omega block eventually push into the NAO space?? I thought that's what previous extended range indications were.

Right. I live on the northwest side of DC in suburban MD, but we've had some good March events over the years. Not "double digits" for the month outside of 2014, but solid events in the early to middle part of the month, and even some halfway decent ones later in March (twice it snowed on my birthday, March 25, like 3-4"!). Just off the top of my head, the good events I recall occurring in this area in March were 2009 (I actually lived in DC proper at that time), 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022. That's a lot of March events, in my opinion, even if not huge. At least a couple of those followed on the heels of a solid and wintry February.

I bet it would have been amusing to see a bunch of drunken people stumbling out of the bars, looking at you all...and wondering how they stepped out into the wrong century!

Right you are! Hence, "Hessian" troops!

I think you mean the time that Gen. Washington surprised the Hessian troops at Pearl Harbor and prevented them from bombing it!

I get that. But one needs to step back and not assume that just because some indices or the Nino phase look unfavorable for awhile starting next year, that it means NOTHING in any particular winter season and everything is shit the blinds awful. I'm not going to sit here and expect it will be great by any means. But let's worry about next winter...or the next 8!...as they come. Sure, we may have a sucky or more hostile look next year, but what if we get a lucky time or two where we get a decent or better snow event? It could happen. Nothing precludes that. That's how I'm looking at it for now. Snow angels? Now that's something I haven't done for years!!! LOL!!!

Why is the Reaper messing with the Golden Gate Bridge??? Is this what he does in his retirement???

It's not really that people "don't understand that" (in relation to the awful 7 year stretch of snow, or lack thereof!). It's that probably a lot of people don't need to keep hearing that if we don't score big with some large amount of snow in DC/Balt in a Nino year that we "should" do so, then we're doomed and will suck even more...even if we have a GOOD winter this year in the end. I posted something along these lines in the medium range thread a short while ago. I get the overall long term implications, or potential implications. But we don't need to hear it pounded at us over and over and over again, or how this pattern looks great but here's how we can really fail despite that, etc. Let's just at least for the most part focus on this winter for what it is and how it goes. OK, so if we don't "win" in a huge 63-3 UGA/FSU type Orange Bowl blowout, but if we win like a 34-13 Michigan CFP championship, are we a failure? Seriously, I'll worry about next winter when it gets closer, same with the winters after that. Yes, I get that it's been God-awful for years and I get that this makes any snow lover nervous about any future prospects. But it can also sap any fun or enjoyment if we get some good storms this year if we're going to constantly worry that "it's not enough to offset the past 7!!!"' ETA: I got literally 0.5" snow in the pre-dawn hours on Feb. 1 last year that was gone by 10AM. We had a ridiculously warm Jan-Feb last year with almost literally zero tracking that was worthwhile all winter. The only other snow I saw outside that half inch was some snow TV for a couple of hours near the end of Feb. that didn't stick. This year I've seen 9.5" thus far along with a rather nice cold week and snow cover for a week. Last year, the only cold was like 2 days around Christmas and zero snow cover for more than 2 hours. Yeah I know, beating last year is a low bar. But let's try to take this winter for what we can get instead of trying to pigeon-hole it into something that it SHOULD be or it's a failure even if it's not.

Well, if you want to go all "Highlander", there can be only one!

But I've seen the Sistine Chapel on the head of a pin!!!

A-freakin'-men!! You said this a lot more diplomatically than I could! This place sometimes, I swear! Agree. I'm very encouraged and excited about what the overall pattern has looked like on the ensembles and longer range extended ensembles. And it's shown up for some time now, apparently not being kicked farther out in time. At this point, all you can do is look at the overall flow and assess that, really. Yeah, in the end as we get into that time frame, all that matters is what happens with the sensible weather. It may end up being epic or really good, or we could get bad luck and get screwed...I'm not going to let that worry me at this point. We can evaluate that as it arrives, and I don't really think we'll end up with an anemic remainder of this winter. While I get some concern or confusion over why a snow map would appear to be incongruous with the advertised 500-mb flow, I'm not sure if we should really much care what a snow map 2+ weeks out shows. How many times have we looked at long range ensembles snow maps or Euro weekly snows that pounded us with a ton of snow over a 3 week period, yet it never came about? Of course at the time most people laughed off those clown maps, so why should we now take the "opposite" with any less of a grain of salt? On a side-note, while the discussion of climo and the implications of how well (or not well) we do this winter plays into that is interesting and worthwhile, I really wish we could mostly focus on the here and now. Just deal with this winter for this winter's sake, rather than thinking "if we don't get 30-40 inches in DC at a time we should do really well with a Nino...then we're doomed for X number of subsequent years and our climo will suck even worse donkey balls because we're headed into a Nina starting next year!!!" Can we just get through this season first and try to enjoy what we get? So if we by chance get a decent HECS storm or a couple of really good MECS-level events, etc., but don't get a "blowout win" (even if we get a "win" all the same) on the total snowfall in the end, are we going to pull our hair out that we failed and are doomed? I sure hope not.

LOL at the GFS, out at the end of its run! @Ji already mentioned above that it's actually trying to set up a MECS at that time, whatever it's worth. Could that be the @psuhoffman "getting snow in an imperfect setup" scenario? The 500-mb pattern is a mess, lots of moving parts (yeah, I know, and ops at range, but...). I guess if things are actually trending better toward the 2nd week of February, this would perhaps indicate a lead into that transition?

Yeah, Ravens look quite formidable for sure. While the 49ers might be their toughest competition (assuming both end up in the SB), at this point I don't see how SF overcomes that. I mean, the Ravens did beat them soundly on the road. I'm sure SF would adjust but I don't see much of anyone beating Baltimore if they keep playing at that level. And I actually wouldn't totally rule out the Lions pulling an upset win next week for the NFC championship.

Definitely very wintry out today! Got this photo of a cardinal in the snow, they are such stunning birds especially with the red against the white of the snow!

I really look forward to celebrating another GUYS FOLKS day again this winter!!

Dafuq?!?!?!?!