Scarlet Pimpernel

That's what I thought. I just found it a tad amusing!!!

Well except for that weird rectangle of nothing immediately east of DC!! Looks like a resolution thing where it's not extending all the way to the coast there. And...that's snow DEPTH? Even more impressive it seems (though as cold as it should be, I imagine the snowfall isn't much different).

Perhaps...and I am in no way saying it's correct...But it was just last year that New Orleans and the Gulf Coast got like 8-12" snow which "never could happen in a million years!"

I'm kind of wondering that. Or if it's almost like two distinct periods that add on to each other? I believe the AIGFS showed two pulses?

Exactly...thank you! Obviously, our ideal would be to have every model on board for a huge event and never waver through game time when we get utterly hammered. But people see several models at 12Z giving us near-historic to historic amounts, then some things at 18Z cut that with ensuing panic. And now suddenly, say if we end up getting "only" a 4-8" event (that would be cold powder mind you!), it's cause for tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth and cries of failure. FFS!

To me, the GFS this run actually looks a little better than 12Z. Why are people saying it's "worse"? There was almost literally nothing getting up to DC and north at 12Z, now it looks like 2-4", maybe 3-5"?

(Apologies for light banter here but...) Now wait a minute, isn't there some kind of emoluments clause for board moderators?!?!

Haha, well, two minds with but a single thought! I'm also a bit skeptical still about the AI models, maybe because it's such a potentially huge event. But they have proven their worth in the past year or so and (as other mets have said) they do offer solid guidance for the "overall" pattern look, precip shield, that sort of thing. Maybe not specifics like banding or small-scale features, but those are ironed out with mesoscale models. I do like that the AIs have been hammering this consistently. ETA: Regardless, I'm starting to be a bit more confident that we get some kind of warning-level cold powder at least, even if it's not the crazy amounts.

So I guess an overall brief summary after today's 12Z suite (Jan. 19)... --AI GFS, AI Euro, AI Ensembles (at least the Euro version), CMC, UKMET give us a major event HECS; AI models have been hammering this for awhile now. --ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles look quite solid (going by previous Euro ensembles, 12Z not in yet?) for cold smoke upper-end warning level event --GFS is the most suppressed, but 12Z from what I read earlier had some improvements perhaps in the upper levels? --GEFS look solid, similar I think to the ECMWF ensembles. (ETA: Also, I recall that someone showed the CMC ensembles were likewise a big hit). (ETA more! the NBM also was a solid hit from earlier today. Damn how can I forget that when I actually do development work on the damned thing!!!) Hope that more or less is correct.

I also like that even though the GFS looked not so good with the surface, there was some improvement I believe upstairs? So even that model which has been the most suppressed, perhaps showed incremental improvement for us in some way.

Hard to tell because I'm just going by discussion and a few maps in here, but not sure if it's necessarily a bump north with the wave or more amped with a greater precip shield. But either way it's a bump up in amounts.

@stormtracker, were those SV Euro precip maps for 6-h amounts, I assume (the two you showed a short while ago)?

You're referring to the 06Z EPS that was shown earlier? I agree. I made these comments earlier, but (1) it stops at 144-h, and I don't think that's the entire storm and (2) to me, it appeared that the max snow area actually widened or expanded. Either way, yeah, one could argue that the axis shifted a bit south but right now it's mostly noise.

I know, we've all been there, done that, have the T-shirt. Which is why I mentioned the GFS was showing that kind of scenario just the other day before it began suppressing everything, and everyone got freaked out at that. I still think currently, that's the least likely scenario...if anything I can see a snow to ice (or snow-ice-snow) outcome if this ends up going "too far" north in the end.

Agree, given the current setup look, suppression is more likely in terms of how this could fail. But I'd still like to be optimistic (won't necessarily say "confident") that even a bit of suppression where we end up on the northern edge of the best snow would still be a win for us. That would still be warning-level snows, literally cold powder. I think last night's Euro showed that scenario? Heck if we can even increase the amount of moisture being thrown into the cold air, expand the precip shield, that would be nice too.

I know this is perhaps meant as a semi-humorous downer post but...ironically, the GFS was kinda showing just that in the 12Z Saturday run, before it then proceeded to suppress things too much.

Kinda hard to say that it's a definitive shift south per se. I mean, yeah, the axis of max amount shifts a bit that way but a couple of things. First (and as you say) this is out to 144h, there's still surely at least some more beyond that time. Next, notice how the max area actually expands or widens (looking at the dark blue and higher area). Probably nothing, but still interesting perhaps. And really at this point it's more or less noise. Catching up on the last several pages here (and...ahem!...ignoring certain posts!), I agree with the overall idea that we're in a pretty good spot, taking into account the AI models, GFS, Euro, GEFS, EPS, and even the CMC. Others probably already said this, but while a more suppressed solution is clearly on the table here (seems like a "cutter" is much less likely right now), even if we're on the northern edge of the best stuff we still would get a really solid amount of cold smoke. Would we all like to end up in the max zone? Yeah of course (duh!)!! But a warning-level event through this region even on the "edge" isn't something I'd sneeze at.

@stormtracker, will echo others and say I always like and appreciate your MLK avatar picture in honor of Dr. King each year!

Has the classic damming signature as well, with what looks like a secondary low forming east of NC/VA (perhaps a bit east of the classic scenario but it's there).

Interesting. I'll also add that the ridging along the West Coast is also notably different. Though that surely results in the downstream effects too of course. In the Euro AI, that ridge points more directly up the coast (more north-south) whereas the GFS has it protruding more inland toward the Pac NW and southwest Canada. I believe that the AI version with the ridge tilted as it is, allows for the main downstream trough in the central/eastern US to broaden more rather than digging so much in the east, giving the southwest trough more of a chance to turn the corner better or at least not get squashed into oblivion.

Ahh, thank you. Yes, I recall hearing about under-dispersiveness in the AI ensembles (both Euro AIFS and the AI-GEFS). I wonder if going forward, that can be remedied in the future, either by somehow perturbing the initial conditions better or how the training is done for each member.

Now to be clear, @stormtracker did not specify exactly which "F" word he'll use! So be careful!! Of course, FOLKS know which one we would like!!

Yeah, good and fair point. I don't have subscriptions to all that information so was just going by what I could make out on the zoomed-in image above. All the same, what you mention does indicate some suppressed members but in the minority.

Oy, Gevalt, yes please! But seriously...ignoring the specific amounts, the ensembles (mean at least) clearly has the main swath of snow (and precip) through the area here. Going with just that, it's clear the deterministic GFS is currently outside the main envelope here with giving GA/SC/NC the heaviest snow and/or ice. (ETA: Gotta put out the usual disclaimer that I'm not saying the GFS will be wrong, just that with the current indications it's looking like an outlier solution or at least too much suppression.)

Totally agree...at this point (until they improve or there's more mesoscale AI type models) they won't capture small features like banding, convective elements, and the like. But for overall synoptic setup and general low and precip locations as you say, it's rather bang-on in a lot of cases.