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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

  1. Scarlet Pimpernel
    ...Dafuq just happened????!!!! I wasn't even paying much attention and then I see this, LOL!!! PSU slightly fringed, right where we want it! ETA: Yeah, the thermals look whacked-out and meh...but whatever! Interesting it keeps the low south of us. I'm guessing that low in southern Canada north of the Great Lakes kinda messes things up.
  2. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Well, as the great Yogi Berra said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." He would have made a great meteorologist, if he took a different career path!! And we don't "need" this winter to "work", whatever that exactly means. I get where you're coming from, the past several years have been rough for anyone who loves snow, with a few exceptions on some events. That said, the longer range ensembles and weeklies have been consistently showing what is one of the best patterns we could ask for, according to @psuhoffman one that only occurs every decade or whatever. And every major model has been in lock-step with the same exact look for some time, it's remarkable. Let's just hope we can maximize what we can out of that, whatever we get. It's not a "guarantee" (I know you know this already), but just try to focus on tracking individual events if and when they start appearing as we get into ops range more. Try not to put this so much into the larger context and worrying about things like that. Take what we get for what it is, whether we get. I feel like I'm going all @Bob Chill zen-meister here, but you get the idea. Personally, I just cannot get all worked up if we don't get X inches of snow because the long term trends, etc. I'd be liable to not enjoy a HECS or a couple of really good MECS events if I worried too much about that!
  3. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Replying to this in Banter so that I don't end up cluttering things, LOL!! Anyhow, I agree with you. As you say, parroting things that someone else passed along is fine to an extent (I do it too!). But one shouldn't try to make it sound like they're all-knowing about what they are repeating. And, one should always credit the person/people who made whatever comment and assessment, if you know...or at least mention generically that some others stated such-and-such. Guess it's the scientist in me, I've been ingrained (rightfully so!) with giving credit where appropriate and not to come off like you originated it if you didn't. Even on something relatively minor like a weather forum. And yeah...I don't give two sh*ts about next winter right at this point. Sure, it is likely to be a Nina according to several others who've commented on that in here, and will (from what I understand) be pretty blah. OK, fine. But it's like 10+ months away for God's sake! Can't we just take this winter for what it is, hope we score something really good in this upcoming pattern, and worry about next winter another time? And as I mentioned in the main medium range thread, even in a crap year we can still manage to luck into something...that's far from out of the realm of possibility. I somehow doubt it will be wall-to-wall suckiness with nothing. Again, though, even if it is...why freak out about that now? I guess I've gotten a bit more "zen" after last year, which quite literally WAS wall-to-wall suckiness with zip to even track or get interested in.
  4. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Let's not worry about next winter or cancel it just yet. Sure, maybe it will be a sh*t winter...but what happens if we have one week in, say, January and score a lucky 12"+ event? I wouldn't complain so much, even if the rest of the season sucks. We rely on a lot of luck in these parts and have gotten such events in crappy seasons before. ETA: I don't remember a huge amount of winter 2005-06, other than it sucked for the most part. But mid-February 2006 we got that one great event, it wasn't as big down this way (much bigger up toward NJ, etc.), but it was still great. It was warm before that and like 70 degrees a few days after. We got one good period, that's all it took, to get at least something.
  5. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Exactly these points. I'll add that there's nothing "significant" about apparently not getting a MECS/HECS the last week or so of February. Any more than it was "significant" that we previously didn't have one the 3rd week of January, and there was similar talk at that time in 2016 I recall. We're talking a small sample of "big storms" here anyhow, and a discrete one week period. Not like it can't snow at that time. Trying to draw inference about "that week" is a bit much, it's not some voodoo magic (Jobu!!) that keeps us from such an event at that particular time.
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Good to see you posting as always, Bob! Anyhow to your question I'll go by what I remember from 2009-2010. There was of course the big storm on Dec. 18-19, a couple of weeks after our "Dec. 5 snow" (that seemed to be a thing). We then got washed out the rest of the month more or less. January 2010 I recall starting off cold with some clipper-type system, before we had a thaw for much of the month (but not a torch per se). I don't know when exactly that big round of blocking came back, but in the week or so leading up to the two February HECS events, we did have the cold blast and the 6" cold powder on Jan. 30 (that storm inched north after looking like nothing here)...then an event on Groundhog Day (5" in my yard), but by then everyone was focused on the big one that occurred a few days later. So I don't know how dry it was specifically (though I have some sense Jan. 2010 was dryish overall??); we did kind of luck out with Jan. 30, that could just as easily have been "cold and dry" (and it looked like it for awhile). But at least it shows how we could still score a neat event even in something that nominally looked suppressed.
  7. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Easier to just place Astroturf out there, it stays short so that you're guaranteed total grass coverage when it snows!
  8. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Now THAT would be quite the challenge for @Jebman and his famed, trusty shovel! I bet those are his footprints around that house, scoping out the best way to begin digging out!!
  9. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Some of these comments (especially by those who should know better) are getting to be a real snooze-fest in this thread. Put that crap in Banter or the Panic Room. Sure, the "big snow" forecasts might not materialize in reality but can't we just let things evolve and see where things go? Rather than go "OMG, if we don't get X number of inches this year everything is doomed for years!" Even if we get a couple of solid storms and/or a HECS-level event.
  10. Scarlet Pimpernel
    True. Though the period around the 18-19th would not actually be the first wave? Unless I misinterpret what you mean. Seems that around the 14th would be the so-called "first wave chance" which would be pretty borderline at best around these parts, though some others may score something from that.
  11. Scarlet Pimpernel
    @psuhoffman posting 20 day Euro control snow maps in the medium range thread, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria, and it's Groundhog Day!
  12. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yup, most definitely. If (if, if, if!!!) this kind of progression actually occurs, you know there will be tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth with every single ops run once it gets within range to appear on the ops. Of course, if we can manage some event prior to that time, it may mitigate some of that.
  13. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yeah I know this is a snow map way out there for the control member...but damn, that's still quite an expansive area of 12"+!! I don't know if we've seen that kind of signal yet this year, hopefully it's real. (ETA: Just as a matter of interest, since you mentioned it, I believe the 1996 storm is one of only two events that hit NESIS level 5? March 1993 being the other one.)
  14. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Thanks! And it's a great movie, too! That quote you give is one of many good ones in there.
  15. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Folks???
  16. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Verbatim (yeah, I know, ops at 384h!!!) the surface is not great, nor is the 850 hPa level. As depicted it looks a bit too far north? But yeah, definitely agree with you on the overall "look", even if it's a bit off in this run. (ETA: There is actually a surface low forming off the SC/GA coast at that time as well.)
  17. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Some may find that mildly titillating!
  18. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Watch us get one super-sized HECS or even a BECS sometime later this month, but not much else. You'll have people complaining that we didn't have wall-to-wall snow from Feb. 15-Mar. 15, blah-blah-blah. Or, alternatively, we score like 3 solid moderate events (4-8" or 6-12" variety) with some legit cold like Feb-Mar 2015, but it "wasn't enough for what should have been an epic pattern!"
  19. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'm hoping we'll have lots of F-words (of the good variety!) and Jaws music, and maybe declaring things as being "randytastic" (a'la the 2016 blizzard)!!!
  20. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I now know more about Beethoven than I ever thought!!!
  21. Scarlet Pimpernel
  22. Scarlet Pimpernel
    You obviously haven't grown up as a Cleveland sports fan!!! LOL!!!! They've had plenty of teams that were embarrassments!
  23. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Always love Monty Python references!! But I prefer...BURN THE DEBS (or witch!)!!!
  24. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Well, seeing that you have just recently posted several such Ji-like sarcastic comments, one does wonder...
  25. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Totally agree! It's like the complaints about how 2016 was a one-hit-wonder but otherwise sucked. Complaining that 2016 was nothing but one big storm is like saying "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" And yeah, that March 2018 "first day of spring" event was great! There have been many such snowstorms in March, even if they aren't HECS level.
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