Jump to content

Scarlet Pimpernel

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,798

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

  1. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Also, notice it's the extended ensemble CONTROL member, not a mean. So it's even subtly deceptive in that regard.
  2. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I prefer the FAKE punt by FSU (vs. Auburn in the 2014 BCS game), when they came back from a 21-3 deficit and went on to win...
  3. Scarlet Pimpernel
    That wave around the 24th has been one that many here have honed in on as the "better" opportunity, I believe? Though don't rule out something just before that either (PD or just after).
  4. Scarlet Pimpernel
    And the day after Presidents' Day, he rested!?!? Yeah, I swear, if the storm cannot happen on that day so we can officially declare it PD3, then screw it, we shouldn't get a storm at all and let's not get any other snow the rest of this winter!!! (This is extreme sarcasm, by the way!!)
  5. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Do you say FOLKS in the future?
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I don't know about that but I do know for sure there are adults on this board who act like they're 15 years old (or younger!)!!
  7. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Shroomchaser???
  8. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yup, it's almost hypnotic!!!
  9. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Touche!
  10. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'm sorry, I've read your comments on this issue for some time and just have to go into a bit of a rant here, because I deal with numerical models myself to some extent... This has to be one of the most ignorant takes on "models" I've ever seen. I get that you're not overly fond of numerical weather models, ensembles, etc., as I've seen you say on more than one occasion essentially that "all they do is show you every possible outcome to cover all bases..,." or whatever (and I strongly disagree with that sentiment). Or at the least you sure leave that impression. Whatever, and to each their own, but I think this all shows a serious lack of understanding on how modeling systems work and how they should be used/interpreted, and is an insulting slap in the face to the scientists who develop this guidance. Doesn't matter if some posters in a weather forum like here live and die by every single ops model solution at 200+ hours, which I agree can get annoying. But that is not a statement on numerical weather prediction itself. One cannot be serious that weather forecasting has rapidly fallen behind other sciences due to, as you call them, "archaic models." You cannot seriously believe that our understanding of weather systems now is worse than it was in the early or pre-modeling days. Perhaps you're right in the end, that you should just show up in the obs threads when a storm actually does occur. But don't criticize based upon weenieish comments that you read in here and mistake that for what numerical modelers and forecasters believe.
  11. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Maybe shit the blinds on this one, but open them up wide for the next one(s) hopefully!!!
  12. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I did look some at the ops GFS progression around the possible PD event and beyond, and yeah, looks like it tries to just break down the flow soon after. Not totally sure why. I don't know how much of that would necessarily "have" to occur if the PD storm happens (if that makes sense), or if the ops GFS has just tended to flip the flow into a "meh" pattern in its extended forecast projections. Obviously, there's some connection which you mention, i.e., this leads to that which results in the GFS showing whatever pattern later on. I've noticed a few times that the ops GFS turns the 500-mb flow rather bland in the longer range, but that could be due to just being an ops at long range.
  13. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Thanks...yeah, Zwyts sounds correct and familiar from that time. I thought he changed his name to @Deck Pic though...not sure. At any rate, I definitely recall his comments about the March 2015 event.
  14. Scarlet Pimpernel
    The complaints about "too warm leading in!" for the potential PD-3 event around here are ridiculous. First, it's 200+ hours out! Second (if you really want to get into the details!), the temperatures literally crash as the storm begins and it remains quite cold for a couple of days after. The same temperature depiction was shown for 00Z and 06Z, when everyone was ga-ga over this. Again, it's 200+ hours out, but the overall hints for this general time period have been discussed at length. And your comment about cold smoke in March...spot on! The one I remember best was March 5, 2015. That featured a front that went through early in the morning followed by rapid cooling, as a wave moved up the front and gave us that storm. In fact, I recall @Deck Pic (I think it was him?) very early that morning saying watch how many people freak out because it wouldn't be snowing yet when they woke up, when the event wouldn't really start until mid-morning. And sure enough, people freaked out because it was still wet but no snow falling...even as the damned storm was right on our doorstep (and it began snowing shortly after)!
  15. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Maybe it was something soon after that, the thing that ended right at 384h, where PSU and others said it was an absolutely near-perfect setup, etc., but that the GFS "found" the one way to make it fail!
  16. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Cynicism comes with age and experience, my friend...embrace it!!! Some people just call it "realism!" LOL!!! Agree, it most definitely was.
  17. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th? The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us.
  18. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Very true...bonus for sure. Just a couple of days ago, this was essentially not worth the time.
  19. Scarlet Pimpernel
    850 zero line looks OK, but man, that surface freezing line! Still, not that bad a place to be at this point for an event that's kind of a "bonus".
  20. Scarlet Pimpernel
    So basically...like the Ghostbusters car...it needs everything!
  21. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Nobody from another forum is allowed to mess with or troll us!!
  22. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'd think it should be? Wouldn't we want that NS trough to swing out just ahead to allow for some confluent flow and colder air to seep in, as the SS wave approaches? I didn't see all the details, but I take it the 00Z GFS kind of tried to do that, not quite but still somehow offered a snowy solution.
  23. Scarlet Pimpernel
    For what it's worth, I pretty much agree with what you said, and you didn't say it in such a way as to be an overt deb. As for the person (ahem...Ji) that you replied to...and I may get hammered for saying this, but who cares. I find it incredibly rich and ironic that someone who is arguably one of the worst and most immature weenieish posters on this site would call out others for the content of their posts! Sorry but yeah, I went there. So be it.
  24. Scarlet Pimpernel
    @Kmlwx, this is an EXCELLENT post, I couldn't have said it any better than you have...thank you! I'm more or less the same. Yeah, I'll post in here, add some (hopefully!) useful input or at least humor when appropriate. But I also many times just "lurk" and read what the experts say. Or I'll post observations during an event. You mentioned hobbies...photography has become one of my biggest over the past 10+ years, and I really like it, no matter the weather. I'm always finding that my eye catches something interesting and I'll think "ohhh, I need to get a shot of that!" or whatever (and if only I had the correct lens attached at the right time, too!! Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't!). And I certainly will take plenty of snow photos during events, if anything to document them. But honestly, spring and fall around here offer some of the best photography opportunities, with things blooming in the spring or the changing leaves in the fall...or birds, any time of the year. This past November when the Japanese maples over in the Audubon nature center nearby me busted out in all their amazing red, orange, and yellow color...I was beside myself walking around taking any shot I could (I felt almost like the character Po, in "Kung Fu Panda", when he was in the hall of warriors museum going berserk at all the artifacts!). Foxes...funny you mention that! I recently (last few years or so) have seen more encroaching on what are nominally populated areas. In fact, a few years back I was out taking photos during some snow event and saw a fox coming sort of toward me. At first I thought, "who has their dog running around here without a leash???" then realized it was a fox! It just ran on right past me (within a few feet or so), paying no heed of my presence, kind of scared me to be honest. I didn't have a chance to get my camera out from under my coat to grab a shot of him, but it was pretty neat (if scary!).
  25. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yeah...now gimme a nice wave underneath that and some good moisture overrunning, please!!
×
×
  • Create New...