Scarlet Pimpernel

That event was really cool, in what was a remarkably snowy March in an amazing winter!! (I got 5.3" on March 2, 8.0" for that St. Pat's snow, another 3" on the 25th, and even a couple tenths right near the end of the month on the backside of some rain).

Meh...I'd rather see this than nonstop Pac Puke the entire month. At least could give us some element of decent chances. I wouldn't take an ensemble QPF amount at face value. Could it end up just being cold/dry following cold fronts from cutters? Sure. But the ensembles are smoothed, and we could also end up with a nicely timed wave with cold air around and get a good event. You wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell (literally) of even that with a Pac Puke look. ETA: Apologies if that came off a bit confrontational or like finger-pointing at you. Just that the "mood" in here really gets annoying at times, with some people damn near writing off an entire month, etc., or thinking that if we don't get a "big" event (HECS-like) then it's all crap and a waste. I suspect that if we had gotten some decent or better snow from the thing this weekend, the mood in here would be a LOT better and more positive, and people would be looking forward to whatever we might be able to get in February, with the ensembles showing exactly what they do now.

I would certainly agree with you concerning February 2024 simply because it was hyped so much. For a couple of weeks before that, all these extended ensembles and weeklies were showing an epic pattern through the entire month of February (and into March). Like I recall literally day after day people talking about it. Then it flipped to showing the opposite as we got into February and that month just sucked. BUT...I will disagree with you that 2023-24 was on the level of 2022-23 simply because we got a couple of decent events within a week around Jan. 15, and we had some legit cold for a period. We even got a coating in December 2023, for the first time in any December in some years. In 2022-23, there was literally NOTHING and it was very warm throughout; the only "exciting" thing that season was the Arctic blast around Christmas that didn't give us anything but 2-3 cold days.

Disappointment (at least to me) is like the winter of 2022-23. One blast of Arctic air around Christmas that moderated dramatically shortly after (and no snow here). Absolutely ZERO snow in December or January. All of 0.5" the first part of February that was gone before noon. And a bit of snow-TV sometime around the end of February or early March. Nearly a torch gate to gate, there were even still some bugs out I recall! Nothing really at all to track the entire season. Now THAT is a freaking fail of a winter right there. That year tops my futility list, more so than something like 2011-12 or 2016-17.

Expounding on this part of your post: Why would anyone necessarily somehow think (if they are) that we MUST have a "top 20" snowstorm sometime this month? I mean seriously. What if hypothetically we have a somewhat colder than normal month overall and get a couple of good warning-level events, with more potential on the table for another similar event in March? That's supposed to be a "fail" somehow??? I just don't get it.

I'm not hoping for March to "save" us, but I sure as hell would be all in for a solid March event if we were to get one. And come on people, it's Feb. 1 for God's sake! It seems we have some people already writing off the ENTIRE month!! Again, I'm not saying we'll have an epic February (likely not), but geez, if we get a good event or maybe two (doesn't have to be a HECS), then have something in March, that's a HUGE win in my book.

Exactly. And I'll even mention another year that I'd take any day of the week...the first part of March 2015. We got a minor ice event around the 2nd, and then got a nicely timed wave right after a cold front passed that dumped 6-8" or so snow on us on the 5th. And it was COLD then too (for March), as well as daytime snow. Or for that matter, I'd take anytime in March 2014 of course. There's so much tendency in here to wave off March snow as a waste.

I think that was the previous year, Feb. 2024. We saw epic patterns show up consistently in the extended ensembles and in the Euro weeklies. There was a lot of hype (understandable) and a lot of high feeling toward the end of January for a remarkable wintry February. Then almost suddenly as February began, the ensembles all shit the bed and showed a crap pattern...which is exactly what happened, it was uneventful and warmer than normal and there was nothing in March either. The thing last year (Feb. 2025) really was that one event later in the month where every model was hammering us (and the GFS joined the party late), only to whisk it away at nearly the last minute not that far in advance.

I think the period around or immediately prior to mid-month was always looking like a relax for a bit (not necessarily a torch though), but trends were that the 2nd half of February into March would become more favorable. And as you say, the "classic" Lakes cutter or similar system is certainly not an uncommon event. Obviously, nobody can (or should be) looking to repeat the level of cold we've had the past week or so and extending through the upcoming week. But as others have mentioned, keep some solid highs up in Canada lurking around and we can perhaps tap into that at an opportune time. In other words, it shouldn't be a Pac Puke shit the blinds situation from my understanding. I also thought that a somewhat negative to neutral PNA isn't necessarily a bad thing if we can have at least a somewhat cooperative North Atlantic (which again, thought I heard that should generally remain decent) and get some bootleg confluence to the northeast. All in all, I get the sense that at least some in here are essentially ready to write off this entire month already. I'm in no way claiming that we're "guaranteed" a good event, or a HECS, or anything like that (we all know it could just end up in the shitter!)...nor am I trying to imply that's what you're saying here...but everyone was so bummed out at missing what turned into the big southeast snow event that the mood in here has become pretty grim in a lot of ways.

Hmmm, I sense a bizarre correlation!

I thought a lot of the whole freezing rain vs. sleet issue was more how various vendors (TT, Pivotal, etc.) displayed that, or whatever algorithm they used to differentiate the two. For instance, I know on TT for whatever reason, it just displays the ICON as "rain" even when it's clearly some other non-snow frozen/freezing precipl But maybe the actual Euro soundings indicated freezing rain as opposed to sleet, which would be a totally different thing of course.

"Odds blood this club wants cheering up! Sink me, the place is a mausoleum!" (From the 1934 version of "The Scarlet Pimpernel") Sorry, couldn't resist the quote! The mood in here is almost insanely low, however! Yeah, I get that people are disappointed that we missed out on the big storm in the southeast, but really, it was only a small number of Euro and GFS runs the other week that were showing that we might get hammered as well. For the most part, guidance wasn't all that favorable for us, and we'd be on the northern fringes at best. We were hoping for incremental "improvements" to give us something. I mean, this isn't like the event last February that was literally whisked away near the last minute. Or the pattern shown for days and weeks for February 2024 in the extended ensembles, with this epic classic look, everyone was talking about how that would give us a HECS, etc., and then...it flipped to showing crap and that February was rather warm and uneventful. And even now, people want to argue that our event last weekend was a relative "fail" because it sleeted for hours rather than all or nearly all snow. I can also get that, to an extent, but come on. An area-wide 6-12" combined snow and sleet that turned into a literal glacier. Hell, I can walk on top of the snow and not even have my feet sink into it; like walking on regular pavement (though slipperier)! We've now had a week-plus straight of well below freezing temperatures, and the upcoming week looks cold (though not as cold as last week) with perhaps a bit of a refresher light amount mid-week. When's the last time we had nearly 2 straight weeks of deep winter at that level? But people want to say it's a waste, because we didn't get a foot or more from one or two events. Will it warm up or relax after the next week? Yeah, and that's not really much of a surprise. We're not going to get a solid month or more of cold around these parts. As long as there's a lot of cold lurking up in Canada and we see those 1030+ highs around, and given the overall indications in the longwave pattern, I still have to think we're in a good spot through early March. But even if nothing much happens, this past week or so was still rather amazing!

Nahhh, too much sleet. More like 5'6"!!

OK, I know this is banter (but who cares in this thread since the "event" is all but gone)...but as a hobbyist/amateur photographer I particularly like the lighting in that shot.

Yeah, it may not do much but I see the clear differences in there. Not just the position of the H5 low center but looking just east of that, there's a more northward meridional bend on the height lines in the RDPS.

Well...technically that 3rd one you list, 0/0, would be either undefined or infinite!!!

I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range. But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)? Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region. And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking.

How many ass hairs does it take to make a HECS??

@Maestrobjwa and @stormtracker...I saw that today is Mozart's birthday!! Now, I know that @stormtracker is not the biggest fan...I believe he once referred to Mozart with the phrase "his harpsichord playing ass!"...but as a classical music lover I still appreciate Mozart! Great music and great opera music as well! (Though I still must say Beethoven is my favorite!) ETA...I just have to add this link too, from one of my favorite movies!

Strange days when we'd refer to a 4-6" snowfall as a "refresher!!" But I know what you mean. I'm not unicorn hunting...though would take it if it actually happens! I'm mostly trying to see if we can get a decent event like a high-end advisory to low-end warning level amount and not sit here smoking cirrus. I think too many are thinking if it's not the unicorn, then it's a fail.

That mean snowfall is noticeably HIGHER than the deterministic amount from the GFS!

Hmm, OK...must be some weird discrepancy between the display providers. It's like half that on TT. But either way, at least a decent minor event and possibly more hopefully.