Scarlet Pimpernel

OK thanks...I see a bit more what you're saying. So while the "Feb. 20 and beyond period" might be the true flip to predominantly colder (and hopefully snowier!), those weeklies appear "less cold" only because the prior period is not as cold right before that (hence, "rushing" the change). Hope I worded that correctly.

You win the interwebs today, sir!! LOL!!! And that plot...just seems like a @ravensrule bat signal right there!

Not sure if I totally understand what you're saying. Both of those plots show the period after the Feb. 20 date you mention (they cover Feb. 22-Mar. 1). I don't see what you mean by it's still "rushing" based on that. Regardless, not going to fret over subtle changes in weeklies a month from now just yet.

@psuhoffman is fringed ...only in the mid 60s where higher amounts are to his south! But we have some room for the inevitable northward shift of higher values!

Get off my lawn, you damned trick-or-treaters!!!

You're correct, and that's all true. Apologies if I sounded a bit bitter, but I'm sure we're all a bit frustrated. When I take a step back, I really don't think we're done for this winter, but we cannot expect some epic 3 week period either. I strongly feel we'll get one more good event whether it's later in February or first part of March. Unfortunately this thread always goes through wide-ranging mood swings with damn near every model run as you imply (definitely a sine wave!!!). I guess we'll see what happens, but some of these definitive statements based on MJO outlooks way out around 2 weeks should be taken with a grain of salt. Not saying you do that, but too many focus on every single day's forecast. Not just the MJO, but the Euro weeklies every day, etc. I almost get whiplash in some of the ongoing discussion, LOL!!! I mean, it was just last year that around this time (or a bit earlier) we were all ga-ga drooling over some epic pattern that showed up in the weeklies and long-range ensembles that was supposed to occur for much of February. And that went to pot in almost no time once it got within 10 days. Similarly, I recall a couple or so years ago the MJO forecast had us going through 7-8-1 at very high amplitude, the anticipation was palpable, and...nothing. I don't remember if those forecasts changed or if there were other factors that simply overwhelmed it, but it doesn't matter.

Weren't things supposed to become more favorable by D+15 or so, i.e., mid-February or so, into March? Whereas up to that point we are looking at an unfavorable regime as the MJO traverses the warmer phases. That's what a lot of prior discussion was hinting at as I recall. Though maybe that thinking has changed now. Sorry to sound a bit negative, but not that long ago there was a lot of "har har har, a (relatively) short warmup and people are canceling winter when the indications are cold after that" talk.

How much for Short Pump?

This reminded me of Bilbo Baggins' cryptic comment at his birthday party in LOTR: “I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.”

2013-14 was amazing simply because it was essentially wall-to-wall for the most part. I do recall it getting a bit warmer around the end of January into early February, but even then I think we were already looking ahead. That's the month that gave us our "mini-HECS" around mid-February...big thump of snow to some ice, then drizzle much of the day, followed by a burst of snow with the ULL later. I was out in the middle of the night for a Jebwalk, it was just absolutely puking snow then. We got a couple of more small events a bit later in the month, and then March was incredible for snow (and cold)! 2015 was kind of similar, but there wasn't much of anything until mid-February. That February was a lot colder than 2014 (even brutally cold) especially from around Valentine's Day onward. Got a couple or three good moderate snows. That extended into early March when we got another solid event around the 5th after some ice a couple of days prior. A very concentrated 4-5 week period of winter.

I wasn't here for that storm (moved to the DC area in mid-2001), but I certainly heard a fair bit about it. Sounds like it was great, a true reverse-bust!! I think that's when the Eta model was still fairly new, and something about the 18Z cycle the day before suddenly showed the mid-Atlantic and northeast getting hammered, when pretty much all other available guidance still had the low moving out to sea (or with little effect here). I think the Eta actually had 4 cycles back then, not sure, but it was one of the later cycles the day before. I also heard there were no warnings or anything until late, and people were watching the 11PM news the night before stunned that a major snowstorm was coming!

It's actually really not that bad in my opinion. And it's not just 384-h fantasy stuff. Just giving a cursory look. I saw that! Pretty unreal looking and there's some really cold air nearby to work with potentially. Not just at the end of the run, but before then as well.

Groundhog Day! We'll have to re-live it again and again and again until we get it right!

Damn, I remember back in the day when Florida would measure "snow" in grams, not inches!!!

Kyrie Irving called, he would like a word!