Scarlet Pimpernel

Yeah that did look..."interesting"...in terms of development. But hell, looked pretty damned decent to me overall! it appears that it develops a coastal after it has passed us (and dumps a decent WAA thump of snow/mix/ice), while still holding on to a fairly strong primary around the Lakes. But temps look OK verbatim through that time. And then some small disturbance gives more snow a short time after behind all that it appears?

Just be sure to wear your rubbers...I mean BOOTS of course!!!!

Sorry if I came off a bit harsh before. I'm hopeful that whatever warmup or relaxation is relatively short and we can have some real chances thereafter for the latter part of this month and early March. I'm not expecting the level of cold we just had (nobody should be!), but if we can have some decent cold around that can be tapped into with a nicely timed wave, we can do pretty well perhaps. @psuhoffman described this a bit earlier. We may have more variability, but as long as we don't get stuck in a lousy setup I think/hope we'll be good.

But you're only showing it THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY when it will just be underway, and it includes some very cold air expected this weekend. Look, I'm all for it being very muted as much as possible but in reality we should be looking at about Wednesday of next week into the following one. ETA: And yeah, even looking at the plot @Ji posted which would cover more of the moderation...note the warm departures heading our way just to the west. ETA2: Also, every single model, not just the Euro, is projecting a blast of very cold air through this weekend into the early part of next week.

The relaxation, however much it may be, doesn't really START until about the middle of next week. It's from that period onward for however long it is.

Check the dates. Half of that period or so includes the upcoming cold temperatures expected late this week into Monday of next week. Geez.

I move that should this event actually turn into something real and a good snow event, that we name any thread for it "The Ravensrule VD Storm"!!!

Sorry to post this many hours later in here (and apologies for the banter), but I haven't been logged in for awhile. Anyhow, I also remember "needbiggerboat"!! Yeah, he was funny and I always liked his screen name and user icon pic. Very sad he disappeared (I recall hearing he did some time ago), and also that he had cancer. Hope he is doing OK.

Could it just end up bleah the rest of the way with nothing? Sure, it could. But why must we practically assume it will? Why assume that there isn't any kind of reload, in whatever form that takes, toward a colder and more favorable look? Seems that's the general feeling here from several people. I'm not ready to just say F-it, we're done, it was fun for 2 weeks in January and early February, see ya next winter! And depending on what your definition (or anyone's definition) of a "good snow event" is, I'd hardly call that historic/rare for the latter part of February or the first part of March. Maybe if one is HECS-hunting, but a nice warning-level event? Not quite so rare or historic in that time period.

Yes, it will moderate around mid-month, I think that's been advertised for a bit now so no real surprise. Also, keep in mind that mid-February max temperatures (looking at DCA) are pushing the upper 40s around that time period. So getting into the 50s for a few or several days isn't exactly unusual or "winter cancel" territory. Keep in mind, by the end of this upcoming weekend we will have had one of the most extreme and consistent cold spells in a long time, which will have lasted around 2 full weeks straight. I think some perspective is lost with a bit of freaking out over a relaxing pattern simply because we've had such a prolonged period of very cold and well below freezing. And if/when it turns colder and more favorable again, don't expect that we'll have the same level of cold at that point as what we've just experienced. But we don't have it be that cold to score well the latter part of February and early March. And despite what some on here feel, I personally don't mind a good snow event or two even in late February or March; who cares if it doesn't linger for a long time by that point, climatologically speaking.

That event was really cool, in what was a remarkably snowy March in an amazing winter!! (I got 5.3" on March 2, 8.0" for that St. Pat's snow, another 3" on the 25th, and even a couple tenths right near the end of the month on the backside of some rain).

Meh...I'd rather see this than nonstop Pac Puke the entire month. At least could give us some element of decent chances. I wouldn't take an ensemble QPF amount at face value. Could it end up just being cold/dry following cold fronts from cutters? Sure. But the ensembles are smoothed, and we could also end up with a nicely timed wave with cold air around and get a good event. You wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell (literally) of even that with a Pac Puke look. ETA: Apologies if that came off a bit confrontational or like finger-pointing at you. Just that the "mood" in here really gets annoying at times, with some people damn near writing off an entire month, etc., or thinking that if we don't get a "big" event (HECS-like) then it's all crap and a waste. I suspect that if we had gotten some decent or better snow from the thing this weekend, the mood in here would be a LOT better and more positive, and people would be looking forward to whatever we might be able to get in February, with the ensembles showing exactly what they do now.

I would certainly agree with you concerning February 2024 simply because it was hyped so much. For a couple of weeks before that, all these extended ensembles and weeklies were showing an epic pattern through the entire month of February (and into March). Like I recall literally day after day people talking about it. Then it flipped to showing the opposite as we got into February and that month just sucked. BUT...I will disagree with you that 2023-24 was on the level of 2022-23 simply because we got a couple of decent events within a week around Jan. 15, and we had some legit cold for a period. We even got a coating in December 2023, for the first time in any December in some years. In 2022-23, there was literally NOTHING and it was very warm throughout; the only "exciting" thing that season was the Arctic blast around Christmas that didn't give us anything but 2-3 cold days.

Disappointment (at least to me) is like the winter of 2022-23. One blast of Arctic air around Christmas that moderated dramatically shortly after (and no snow here). Absolutely ZERO snow in December or January. All of 0.5" the first part of February that was gone before noon. And a bit of snow-TV sometime around the end of February or early March. Nearly a torch gate to gate, there were even still some bugs out I recall! Nothing really at all to track the entire season. Now THAT is a freaking fail of a winter right there. That year tops my futility list, more so than something like 2011-12 or 2016-17.