Scarlet Pimpernel

Nahhh, too much sleet. More like 5'6"!!

OK, I know this is banter (but who cares in this thread since the "event" is all but gone)...but as a hobbyist/amateur photographer I particularly like the lighting in that shot.

Yeah, it may not do much but I see the clear differences in there. Not just the position of the H5 low center but looking just east of that, there's a more northward meridional bend on the height lines in the RDPS.

Well...technically that 3rd one you list, 0/0, would be either undefined or infinite!!!

I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range. But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)? Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region. And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking.

How many ass hairs does it take to make a HECS??

@Maestrobjwa and @stormtracker...I saw that today is Mozart's birthday!! Now, I know that @stormtracker is not the biggest fan...I believe he once referred to Mozart with the phrase "his harpsichord playing ass!"...but as a classical music lover I still appreciate Mozart! Great music and great opera music as well! (Though I still must say Beethoven is my favorite!) ETA...I just have to add this link too, from one of my favorite movies!

Strange days when we'd refer to a 4-6" snowfall as a "refresher!!" But I know what you mean. I'm not unicorn hunting...though would take it if it actually happens! I'm mostly trying to see if we can get a decent event like a high-end advisory to low-end warning level amount and not sit here smoking cirrus. I think too many are thinking if it's not the unicorn, then it's a fail.

That mean snowfall is noticeably HIGHER than the deterministic amount from the GFS!

Hmm, OK...must be some weird discrepancy between the display providers. It's like half that on TT. But either way, at least a decent minor event and possibly more hopefully.

What area are you looking at? I checked TT for the 24-h QPF amounts and it's ~0.25-0.3" along I-95. Obviously progressively more as you go south and east.

It's a very fickle outcome to be sure, and all depends on how things interact, etc. But honestly, I think too many here are overly invested in a big dog HECS kind of event, or they figure all we'll end up doing out this way is smoke cirrus. Right now, I'm looking to see if we can get some kind of minor-moderate level snowfall out of it, with some slight hope of potentially a lot more. I think that may be doable and more realistic at this point. And really, if (for example) we get about 4-6" in the metro areas and all along I-95, I really don't think I'd care too much if some places southeast of us get 2 feet or whatever. Would be different if we get zip or barely a coating of course, but you get the idea.

Better than smoking cirrus a'la the Euro. A lot better.