MAG5035

Well, CTP reissued all their watches around 1:15am including the north central so they would've had a look at 0z including Euro. I'm sure they're going to keep continuity for another set or two of runs to see if this decided shift holds up. I'll have my full Euro to look at in about 10min, but just looking at the snowmap above suggests to me progression is more of a problem than track (although the axis is def SE). We were talking a broad area of 8-12" last night at 0z in central PA. Now we don't see 6+ show up til a much more narrow stripe from northern MD, through Lancaster/York and then working just NW of Philly.

Just wait til DST starts next weekend if we have anything to track at that point haha.

Precip trying to get up to here but looks like i'll be sitting this one out tonight for the most part.

Knit-picking the GFS track on the 0z run would actually have the low hitting the coast a bit north. In the VA Beach/off the southern tip of the Delmarva realm vs 18z whichwas at the VA/NC line to near the northernmost OBX. That track's pretty good really. NAM came southeast some at 0z but models overall seem to be tightening the precipshield, or at least the portion that delivers more significant snows. GFS still seems the southeastern most moving from there to the benchmark, keeping most of SNE snow. To answer the question of why this might be pressing south or just not coming north a lot is because we have a very cold pattern pressing even without a high directly to the north. There is a monster high dropping into the upper plains with a ton of cold air. Temps are plenty cold aloft for this storm over most of PA. Was looking at the Nam and it had the -8ºC 850mb line running roughly through the middle of PA and -10ºC up in northern PA. That's pretty cold, it's good from a ratio standpoint but it shows the tight thermal gradient is along the mason dixon line. Tonight's departing coastal seems to reinforce the cold aloft later tomorrow which resets the boundary a bit further south than it might have been. We gotta get the storm all the way onshore tomorrow in the west and the coastal out of the way til I think we see the final adjustments on things. I think the fact our Sunday storm isn't even all the way onshore yet in the west coast on Friday night should tell you how progressive the pattern is.

Geez is anyone in the Sus Valley seeing snow?

18z NAM's right on the Delmarva with Sun/Mon's storm like the Euro.

I don't think it's going to affect Sunday's storm to the point of a fringe job in the west and north. I mean maybe NW PA sees more of an advisory type event but I just think that it affects it enough to take the low running close to/ into PA scenario off the table. Most guidance is taking a TN Valley low inside to or near the Delmarva, so the flat trajectory would bode quite well for all of western and central PA. The GFS brought the low to the coast near the NC/VA border, which is still a workable track but a track like that would divide the subforums into the northern parts seeing okay snow and a stripe of the southern parts seeing the heavy snow axis. I think the Euro looked like it was the most NW attm with the 12z suite, taking the low over the Delmarva peninsula. Pretty much everyone in PA outside of the Philly region in SE PA and Erie had 6"+ on the Euro Kuchera map (24hr map that doesn't include tonight).

This series of events has certainly been very poorly forecasted in the short and intermediate range. People say about the NAM being the NAM after like 24 hours but that was the only model that had last night's event in western and central PA outside of maybe the extreme southern tier prior to Wednesday. Now we have a half decent developing VA Beach/Delmarva low tonight before the Sun/Mon Delmarva low that has actually been forecasted. My worry about the main storm Sunday has been it creeping too far north, bringing more widespread issues turnpike and south or at the worse case.. I-80 and south. I think this.. bonus coastal probably takes that off the table. The only areas of concern I really have at the moment are the mixing zone which likely will reside near the M/D line and perhaps creep into York and Lancaster, and up north of I-80 having lighter snows in case the GFS is actually right for a change with it's more SE solution. Like I said yesterday, still think this storm is a faster hitting 5-10" type event for the heavy snow axis. There's no high to the north to A. help slow it down and B. Enhance anomalous easterly fetch. That would've probably turned it into a much more significant, say 12-18" type big hitter. Either way, it's going to be a good snowstorm where the best QPF sets up.

Measured 2.8" with some lingering light snow continuing.

25ºF with Moderate snow and 2.5". Def a >10:1 type snowfall fluff-wise.

6z long HRRR with a glance at Friday Night's shot. That's another advisory type event for at least the same places under the current advisory and probably add some counties if that were to come to fruition. All of LSV and most of the south central at 6"+ between the two events. Developing low in a good spot for us.

The 24 hour Kuchera snow map covering just the Sun Night-Mon storm had 6+ for pretty much the whole subforum save for maybe the extreme southern edge of Lancaster. JST/AOO/UNV/FIG/IPT/MDT/THV/probably LNS within an 8-12" zone. IPT and FIG riding the 8" line. It's a big hit for the subforum. Pittsburgh/SW PA 6-8" range.

Almost at the 1" mark. Moderate to heavy, caved roads, the usual.

Snow has started here. Time to freshen the glacier up, the windstorm blew a lot of pine needles and other junk on it haha. Base snowpack running roughly about 4-5". The 2/12 portion of the pack under the top 2" is back to being bulletproof again.

0z NAM is pretty similar to what the 12z Euro had today with regards to the Sunday night-Mon system, and that's generally been a winning combo in the short-intermediate range when those two are on the same page. So we'll see how the rest of 0z evolves with that system. Western and Central PA get ripped on those two solutions. Actually just about the whole state sans the Philly region do but the issue in our subforum is the very far southern tier along the PA/MD line and potential mixing/rain. The GFS has been a more southern solution but given how it handled tonight's system up until about yesterday or so.. It may be running these systems too far south in the pattern we have this week. Once again, this system does not look to have a high to the north. This low will be running strictly on wherever the gradient sets and we won't have a CAD setup. So instead of a large mixing area, we'll likely have an actual rain/snow line for a change or perhaps a very narrow mixing area. You can see that illustrated on the P-type map from the NAM, for example. Establishment of some fresh snowpack tonight and perhaps tomorrow night for some areas can only help.

There's not much to keep that storm from being a quick mover with the NAO going positive and no high pressure to the north. The key as I mentioned this morning is keeping the low south of PA, which is going to hinge on where the boundary between the cold air and warm air ultimately lies. I think most of C-PA is sitting in a good spot for this, although the southern tier LSV is an area I'd be concerned about for mixing. This event overall strikes me as of the quick hitting 10-12hr 5-10" ish variety for the area that gets the best snow in our region.

Things have really come around with regards to tonight into early Fri's event as well as the Sun night/Mon one. For tonight's event I was concerned about sizable corridor of central PA effectively missing out on both yesterdays clipper (too far north) and tonight's (too far south). The NAM was def on the northern end of things and now the rest of the major suite including the GFS is on board with running a snow swath across at least the lower half of PA. Looking like a 2-3" type deal with perhaps some scattered 4-5" amounts (esp Laurel's). This end of weekend thing after looking rather disorganized the last couple days is now currently looking much more potent with yet another Gulf moisture laden system and the potential for a higher impact winter storm. Missing from this event vs previous couple is presence of high pressure to the north to aid in CAD. Thus, it is important the low tracks south of PA and not through or NW of us. Def looking like more of a gradient type storm with probably not much of a mixing/ice zone. Getting into March can start presenting cold air availablity issues for storms depending on setup but this pattern going forward into probably at least the first 2 weeks of March is primed with a ton of cold air. That coupled with a slight relaxation of the western trough (still running a -PNA) should help suppress the storm track enough to give us a good shot at this weekend event and perhaps more. Overnight Euro really ripped true central PA with some mixing issues southern tier while GFS is tracking more south and providing PA with generally all snow. Top end potential of this storm is probably going to be tempered some as wave will be progressive and the lack of the high to the north also would play into weaker u wind anomalies (low level easterly flow) with the coastal low as progged. Either way, I think all of us would sign up for 6-8" type event.

With this week decidedly a more northern branch dominated pattern, it appears the better of the two events is going to be the clipper system tomorrow. Unfortunately the low is going to track too far to the north (through PA) so the best snow swath runs NY state/PA northern tier into New England. The system near the weekend (Fri) hasn't been nearly as impressive for the most part the last several runs, although the 18z NAM ran a swath of snow across most of PA.

Lol, I'm shocked. Last week it had that run with 2-4 feet of snow that basically told the Jan 2016 NAM to hold my beer, but then it was all talk and no action.

CTP near term:

Snow squall working through right now to go with the high winds. It's nasty out.

I don't have much of a sample size of big wind events in this neighborhood since moving into my new house June 2017. So I guess I'll see what this one does, it's definitely blowing pretty good outside. Since it didn't get above 35ºF all weekend until like 10-11am this morning, I still have 100% snowpack coverage in the yard. Quick measurement braving the wind outside has about 6" south side of the house and 7" on the north side.

That's crazy, the western US has had one heck of a stretch of winter in the last month.

I don't have access to full Euro ensembles but I do have the Euro control run that goes out to 360. It does have an event in that range, kind of a weaker miller-B type deal with some snow in PA and probably marginal thermals in DC. So yea, it had something.. but not the 3-5 feet the FV3 served up lol. 18z FV3 still has a pretty big storm.

Also, if you go back to the 2nd page of this thread (post 45) you find a poster that quoted JoMo's last few posts before the storm hit.. the second of which saying about the sirens going off. TIme on that post was 5:17 CDT, right at the time of the warning (VTEC31) issuance. 10 minutes later was his last post about the couplet being nearly overhead. Whatever happened to that particular thread (or portion of this thread) where people were posting as the storm was unfolding? I seem to remember that folks might've been watching that first warned cell when the Joplin cell suddenly exploded into the monster tornado signature just outside of town. There's of course those couple chaser videos that show this tornado going from a developing multiple vortice to a massive wedge in about the time it takes for the doppler to make one scan. I know that's one of the many aspects of this storm that fascinates me..practically watching the whole wall cloud drop to the ground in a minute or two.