MAG5035

The ops all have some kind of a wave that seems to take an okay track near the 25th today, esp on the Euro and GFS and some semblance of it on the GEFS. Problem is marginal cold again. We get another half decent dose of cold with a strong high that drops down later this week (probably squashes the system after tonight's too) but it's quickly routed and cut off again from us for the potential arrival of the aforementioned 25th system. Just hasn't been there at the lower levels, and it's been that way all winter.. despite it not really being an outright torch for a good part of it. I've noticed on model forecasts that 1000-500 thicknesses that can usually get the job done, aren't. Take that Feb 25th system progged on the GFS for an example. We're getting late but not THAT late in the season yet, so we can typically do marginal setups somewhat above the magic 540 number, especially with the track the GFS has under PA with the 546 line staying mostly at the mason-dixon line and a low transfer. That should be a straight up light to moderate all snow event for at least everyone above the turnpike in here. The 500mb checks out okay with an undercutting look and high heights , and that's around the timeframe the EPO is supposed to be flipping negative. But theres no cold air in Canada (relative to average for them) and the cold air that is available dumps into the western US trough. I definitely think the EPO is a big influence, but I still think the +AO could mitigate what it could do if it went negative. I don't feel a run of the mill -EPO is going to counter a continued +2 to +3 AO that the progs are showing enough to matter here. We need to neutralize the AO. I think a reversal is coming eventually with the seasonal slowing of the jet. But with how anomalously strong that and the PV have been all year, how long is that major shift upstairs going to take?

I don't recall anything that crazy in the last few years, although the March 2018 storm delivered some 20+ in the southern Laurels.

It's kind of a toss up. If you look at it from a sun angle perspective with getting it to accumulate your over a month past the fall equinox on Oct 29th and 2 weeks past the Spring equinox April 6. The sun on October 29th is just about where it would be right now, so it's definitely harder for accums on the ground. But in terms of air masses your probably talking similar probabilities of having a setup with sufficient cold air available. Earliest I've seen is Oct 2, 2011 at elevation on the top of the Allegheny front up from where I live and the latest was May 11, 2010 and May 12, 2008.

I'm not sure what it did in the LSV, but if you guys want an anomalous event try April 27-28th, 1928. Yup, thats a 36" near Somerset, PA.

Yea I agree, i'm definitely not saying one shouldn't post certain maps. Was just giving my own opinion on it. I'll certainly have a look at what the long range snow maps look like but if I'm making a post pertaining to the longer term I rarely will incorporate them simply because they're too variable run to run even if the overall big picture is showing consistency on modeling.

Speaking of counterproductive, Im not a fan of those ensemble probability maps for x amount of snow being posted as much (not necessarily in here) as they especially had been a bit earlier in the winter taken out to the full 360/384 hrs. Sure you can make a very general assessment that the pattern looks good or lousy overall over the next 10-15 days, but there's certainly more important things to look for in a given pattern when going out into longer range. Your pretty much in the same boat as you are with long range snowmaps and any kind of specific numbers. I think getting more serious about the probability of x amount of snow type stuff should be reserved for inside of 5 days when reeling in specific threats via global ensemble guidance, IMO.

It's a pretty decent snow squall. Streets are caved.

I think the squall line might have some staying power across the state. I bet it makes it to at least Harrisburg with a decent burst of snow, and it may cross the rest of the state. It's being driven by the dynamics of the arctic front and the latest mesoanalysis shows the snow squall parameter product registering pretty good ( latest is lagging by about an hour or so). Some of that ever so slightly stronger Feb sun would've really lit this thing up if it were the daytime.

Here comes our one day shot of arctic air.

It's not like it's off topic lol, you guys are just discussing snow chase places whenever that Euro solution probably comes to fruition.

We gotta neutralize the +AO regime up north. Until we see improvement up there I'm going to maintain the opinion of seeing the status quo of us being at a disadvantage when it comes to the storm track and any kind of cold regime that sticks. We were working the back end of a -EPO on the lead up to tonight's system and that influential teleconnection just isn't enough to counter the SE ridge via the +AO/+NAO/-PNA and Phase 5-6 MJO forcing. We wouldn't have had a perfect winter storm by any means with the track tonight's low is taking, but we likely would have seen a decent event with just a typical CAD setup, and a strong enough high to the north may have forced the low to try to reform on the coast. At any rate, we have the EPO swinging positive now, which will cut off the cold air which was trying to push for a change. Thus, we will have a pretty significant but very short lived shot of arctic cold behind this current system on Friday. Models do try to neutralize the EPO at least for a period of time near the 18th or so, but we maintain solid +AO/NAO. What the 0z Euro op has in the D8-10 range tonight with the AO is insane. It basically left the chart which goes up to +7. The other op and ensemble guidance (don't have 0z Euro ensemble yet) isn't that extreme but still has a spike in the index that is quite anomalous in that timeframe. You can't maintain a cold push to our latitude with such low heights over the polar region. We have to break this regime to have a shot at anything more than some kind of crazy fluke event down the stretch. Which if I'm being honest, the 0z Euro is kind of showing such a thing in that same D8-10 timeframe with an undercutting 500mb low and coastal storm with just barely enough cold available to actually snow in the piedmont region (pretty tight precip area). That can definitely happen there or more easily, here... but I'm talking the big picture in terms of the overall weather pattern. I'm inclined to think things break down eventually over the pole. It has to at some point , but the big question of course being does it happen in time to do anything other than make a really cold and unsettled first half of spring. Also keep in mind as we get into March that MJO influence changes. Phase 2 and 3 are best correlated to cold in our section of the country in the FMA period. We're too early in the month yet I think to consider that 3 month set.. as i'd probably be using JFM yet until the end of the month. 2 and 3 are still colder leaning JFM, but correlation isn't as strong. If we can set up and start an 8-1-2-3 type pulse by the end of the month, that could be a good thing.. or at least a start. Again, I think the key to our end game is going to be whether or not we neutralize or reverse the dominant +NAO/+AO regime. It's been the big constant since we've kicked the new year off.

Let me play you the song of winter 2019/2020, Rain and Pingers.

Light to moderate snow, 0.4" on the non paved stuff. 34ºF

Well if all else fails I can say I managed to get something on the ground out of this.

Snowing now, steady light to moderate. Surface temps still need work (mid to upper 30s per mesowest obs).

Precip just starting to arrive on a brisk southerly breeze. Light sleet/snow.

Snow on the 511 cams on US 219 south of the turnpike in Somerset County, as well as on the MD CHART cams in western MD. Maybe some of the central folks could do a little better on the front end if some decent precip gets in here right off the bat. Although any accums are likely to be elevational for the AOO-UNV-IPT region. They're issuing advisories not necessarily because of the snow, but for lingering freezing rain potential on mainly the ridges in these counties after precip flips over. CTP mentioned about adding advisories for this earlier in the day in their discussion and this was in their new discussion update below. Those higher elevations will be somewhat cooler than the lower valley locations in southern Centre and Lycoming, especially with some accumulating snow on the front end. Valley temps may stay a bit above freezing, even with early snowfall to start. Just too marginal an airmass with no high to the north. Any half decent high to the north with a storm track as this one is taking would have at least introduced a more significant period of snow/icing for the majority of folks. This is more of a gradient type deal, which we have mostly been on the wrong side of all winter. There have been some winners in snowfall with this pattern, and not all that far away at times... but definitely not here in the central and LSV.

I think I'd be rivaling 93-94 by now if I cashed in GFS digital snow this winter haha. We can dream a little and we still have half of this month and March, but we are definitely facing an uphill battle to get things back in order. This winter has been something of an anti 2014-2015 in terms of it's remarkable consistency of having a horrendous pattern for us.. and thus far a couple of the opportunities that have presented themselves have just missed. Hopefully something gives.. I pretty much have to double my current total of 13.2" just to get into 01-02, 11-12, 15-16 range. As I posted a few days ago, all three of those winters had a single warning event with 01-02 and 15-16 having double digit ones back this way. If I somehow got out of this winter not having a single snowfall greater than the 2.1" that's the current biggest of the season.. that would be the worst winter I've seen here in my almost 34 years. I'm a snowpack guy, seeing a nice snowfall get taken away in a couple days def takes the luster away for me... which would likely be the fate of anything we do score in this type of a pattern. Haven't even thought about getting the snowboard out this winter for anything local. I def would jump on an opportunity to do some slopes out west if anyone I knew that was doing that.

That is nuts. I didn't realize at first it was a 747, I figured it was one of the newer models. I guess that's what happens when you can ride a 170kt+ jet streak 3/4 the way across the North Atlantic.

Speaking of wind, who needs to bring back the Concorde when you can just utilize the benefits of the hyper positive NAO/AO and strong PV? https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/british-airways-fast-flight-scli-intl-gbr/index.html

Possibly, I have a decent burst of snow falling right now with the band of good echoes overhead. My surface temps are above freezing so nothing's really accumulating. You might see some flakes mix in but surface temps are running a few degrees warmer over there so it may start as light rain.

Kinda suspect of the southern part of that snow zone. GFS is really showing some disjointed action going on there. Not sure if it's the p-type algorithm or what but I've noticed stuff like that from the GFS on the last system as well. It is presenting the best track attm so there probably would be a start as frozen as it just barely slides under PA. There's not a lot of ensemble support for snowfall from the GFS or Euro on this system, especially at MDT. Additionally, I think the northern folks in here might have more of a snow event to deal with overnight into tomorrow than what's really been discussed. Precip just arriving here is in the form of flurries. I think models are being a bit optimistic with warming, especially in the north central region (Clearfield to IPT, perhaps down to UNV depending on precip coverage). Could be a 2-3 incher. Hopefully Nut has an extra day off and is still up north bc he'll probably see another snowfall.

0.6" of new snowfall from the patchy snow area that moved thru this evening.

Meh, not necessarily. Extrapolating the NAM beyond 84hr is a dangerous game to play, leave that to whoever did that in the other subforum this morning lol. I'll start watching what it does when something gets within it's range with regards to where it's at within the model suite. Within about 48hrs is when I'll start taking it more seriously as it typically is better on the finer details (on the mesoscale) with the thermal column and stuff like that.

It appears we have a system to watch. The GFS/CMC/Euro paint a pretty good picture of the multiple ways this thing could go. GFS couples a decent high to the north with a low sliding to the south of PA for a change and a good majority of the subforum sees a decent snow event. The CMC has similar timing/track but a stronger surface high and a lighter event for mainly the southern tier while the euro hangs back the high pressure and the storm cuts. Significant difference maker on the Euro appears to be lack of 500mb low east of Hudson Bay. This feature was present on the GFS/Canadian and it provided a confluent flow to the north aiding the storm tracking underneath us. Without that on the Euro the shortwave just boots out NE into the midwest and the developing storm easily cuts.