MAG5035

This new thread should hold us over for awhile. I'm starting to feel like a broken record, but until the AO breaks down we are going to remain in the same general pattern we've had largely the last 2 months. The major downturn of the EPO in the progs does offer up a potential winter opportunity later this coming weekend as the monster East Pac into AK ridge (-EPO) tries to press the cold via a very strong high tracking to the north. Again, this +AO regime up over the pole is mitigating what such a negative EPO could potentially do. Another issue is the trough dumping into the west coast (-PNA) It does appear to be enough to suppress the storm track in the case of this storm next week but there doesn't appear to much opportunity for the wave being progged to deepen much. If we didn't have the continued low heights over the pole, we would be probably talking a major period of cold for March incoming with how negative the EPO is forecast to go. Here's todays Euro at H144, first the surface and then the 500mb.. and you can see what this +AO (and -PNA) does despite the monster -EPO. But you can also see that the -EPO tries to press the cold into the northern US despite a 500mb look that doesn't look anything of the sort. It also shows this wave doesn't have much opportunity for amplification. So while we may time this really strong high (1048 in the case of today's Euro) with a wave to get wintry precip. It may not be much, or even suppressed.

The overnight GFS (and the 6z coming in) is still persistent on a snow event in our area near the 12th. A look at the GFS ensembles didn't show much support for that op position and reviewing yesterday's 12z insanity on the op, ensembles weren't reflecting a strong coastal snow storm in that cycle either. Other ops don't have C-PA snow (Canadian tries a rain to snow) but they do all show a potential system in the timeframe. In fact, the 0z Euro shows pretty much the kind of wave the GFS had, but running surface low further north through PA with the snow swath through NY State. GFS C-PA snowstorms have been a thing in this range this winter, and not a thing that has translated to much actual white on the ground. So given the general storm pattern all winter, I have to lean towards something like the Euro right now. Especially since the AO is forecast to be the most positive in this time frame on all the models (around +4). Again, the regime in this realm has to neutralize significantly or reverse eventually to maybe have a late chance. I just don't see a -EPO overcoming this unless it's super negative. And an especially -EPO in the progs would signify something's wrong in the guidance since the AO stays very positive. It would either mean the EPO corrects more toward neutral or positive as the forecast range gets closer (has already happened this winter) or the AO corrects toward neutral signifying some higher heights near the pole and possibly a disturbance in the strong PV. A major EPO ridge poking into the polar regions would suggest finally perturbing the PV and weakening the AO regime. But, I'm not seeing any signs of that in the ensemble guidance at the moment. I don't think we're there yet. Ironically, the GFS ensembles actually keep the EPO positive. Also, the persistently -PNA we look to remain in enforces IMO the continued issues I see in terms of storm track issues and a base warm pattern here in the east with only brief attempts at chilly. This pattern over the pole will break down, it has to... but the remarkable stability of it and continued forecast stability up through the next 10-15 currently in the models suggest that it will take time. I know your talking about March, but we might've been talking a worse winter snow wise in MDT around this time in 2016 if not for the one hit wonder of a lifetime in January. The weather can do some crazy stuff. Only needs a window of opportunity.

Nighttime outbreaks are a pretty common occurrence in the early severe season in the deep south and TN Valley as they're more dynamically driven from the more potent storm systems you start seeing in the late winter/early spring months. These setups don't necessarily require daytime heating and can happen anytime of the day. This was the first major metro hit from a big tornado in awhile and it was pretty much a direct one unfortunately. It looked like the tornado just missed the Broadway area in downtown where the Bridgestone arena, Titan's Stadium, Country Music Hall of Fame and all the different honkey tonk bars, etc along Broadway are...plus all the surrounding high rises. Tons of people down there, especially on weekends.

Of the 12z ops and ensemble guidance, the 12z Euro ensemble is particularly suggestive of this potentially being an event for C-PA. Pretty sizable clustering of coastal low tracks that would be decent C-PA tracks (although consensus still leans east of here with the main coastal). Overall, this system has an inverted trough look to it with the northern branch system from the lakes phasing into the southern branch system coming off the NC Coast. Typically this is a pretty good signal for a lighter, potentially advisory type snow event in our region even if the heaviest resides east or northeast of C-PA with the main coastal low ramping up but I'm worried about the low level/surface temp regime for a lighter event, especially east of the mountains. Will have to see if the coastal low trends closer to us with time. Like I said yesterday, very short window of opportunity for this.

I'd say the potential system near the 6-7th represents the best chance of anything that may materialize as a northern branch wave drops in and look to maybe phase. Seemed like roughly 1/4 of the members on each ensemble showed 2"+ at MDT with some bigger snows in there bumping the mean up. Think the 12z Euro ensembles for instance had something like 14/51 members with 2"+ with 4 having more than 6". It's a half decent signal at that range but I see the same base issues though stemming from our dominant pattern of anomalous low heights over the pole with a high northern branch and progression. The northern wave does seem to drop down with some amplification and a pretty good signal of phasing on the models, but not enough for my liking.. and too late. Wavelengths are shortened but it's too progressive with no blocking downstream or up top. Unfortunately I think New England is better positioned to get something out of this. Very short window for this to materialize for anyone as the cold coming in with this is in and out rapidly. Did not like the long range on the ensembles as the PV over the pole remains strongly in tact with general troughing near the west coast (quietly a pretty solid -PNA forecasted) and consistent central Pac ridging. As such all the ensembles show above normal heights in the east in the longer term. We look closer to early spring fling than scoring a winter storm with a look like that. This stuff over the pole staying business as usual throughout the model runs pretty much play into my worry of this very dominant pattern not breaking down til it's too late.. or at least late enough that it makes things much harder for us to score anything climo wise. It'd take a storm of that description for me to consider the winter maybe at least a little bit salvaged haha. And you better not leave @Wmsptwx and esp @2001kx out of this. You think I'd boycott the storm if it missed me? Haha

I had about 1.6" in the last few days of snow showers, but definitely not on the ground all at once. That brings my season to 15.5" to date. To put that in perspective for around here I still need about 6-10" to GET to the levels of the other recent junk winters of note. Those season totals I have up from the last two winters (54.6" and 52.2") are both roughly average winters for this particular location. This one's the worst I've seen personally.. I've never seen a bad winter not have at least one decent event. There's still time for that to change obviously but the recent three bad ones (01-02, 11-12, 15-16) had the bigger event before March. Since back here technically requires 3" of snow to verify an advisory (non-ice), I haven't had one of those up through today this winter. That's insane.

Nice haha. Judging by the satellite it looked like the more organized band you were under had a Huron connection to it, which is typically a way to send more significant lake snows deep into C-PA.

Got whacked with a snow squall not too long ago that added a half inch to the day. Roads are trashed. 1.3" on the day. That snow squall line is taking aim at H-burg and it might make it.

The more you get into the longer range the more heavily the computer models factor in climatology, especially in the ensembles but also operationals. We've been running an exceptionally positive AO/stratospheric PV for the majority of the winter after Jan 1 to this point. Not very often you see the pattern we have, and even less often you see it last as long as it has. So the models are factoring in the climo more in the longer range and try to break down the pattern but the reality ends up the pattern hasn't broke down, specifically in the AO realm in this winter's case. That's why you often see the "always 10 days away" debacle with pattern changes. This was especially noticeable about a month ago, in the dead of winter when we're at our coldest. Now that climo is starting to warm rapidly getting into March you'll notice we haven't seen as many long range snow events on the models lately. Typically a long lasting pattern does break down, but often not as fast as the models try to break it down... but usually it doesn't last as long as this has. My general concern lately has been that given how strong the PV has been, it may not start to finally break down until it's too late (late March/early April). We see the EPO flip postive/PNA negative next week and maintain the +AO so we're probably throwing the first week of March away with that as we ridge in the east in the wake of this cold shot. The first half of March isn't too hard to work up a storm for us with a half decent pattern, but it gets a lot harder to do late in the month. One can debate whether the dog is wagging the tail or the tail is wagging the dog in terms of how the +AO came to be and how it's maintaining itself, but this has been primarily the thing that has wrecked our winter in my opinion. This current storm was the closest thing since the beginning of the month we've had to a coastal, and you can see the other teleconnections (PNA,EPO, and NAO) are all pretty close to neutral currently but the AO, while off it's exceptionally high values is still running pretty positive. Just not enough to suppress the storm track.

Wind is ripping this morning. The Laurel’s look like a rough drive by the looks of the 511 cams. @ItstrainingtimeWhere do I collect the prize for my 100% prediction on measurable snow? Lol

Got a nice moderate snow going now but it's a race against the back edge as far as the synoptic goes.

Changing over to snow now and down to 36. This pic was at my parents 4 miles up the road in Bellwood taken a little while after the squall line (about 930pm). Piled up on the west side of the house. Wasn’t overly large stuff, more like large sleet pellets. I guess it could be more of a grapuel but it seemed like the pellets were clear and definitely not soft. It actually solidified pretty good since it was around 40 and water logged by the time I saw it.

I missed the line when it came through but I saw the hail reports on mPing and discovered there was accumulated hail in spots. So if you Sus Valley folks want some frozen there’s your shot lol. I’ll try to get a couple pics.

There's probably garden enthusiasts in Florida that are envious of the full spring fling you already have going on at your place haha.

I was impressed that the blizzard warning in western NY (both off Erie and Ontario) has like a 42 hour duration. Not sure where exactly everyone resides up there but some seemed mad BUF issued blizzard warnings. I'll take them if they don't want them lol. For the record I do think the blizzard warnings are warranted given the way this low strengthens and tracks.. and then sits over southern Quebec for a time. Realized the storm had a bit of a March 3-4, 1999 look. That storm had a similar track with blizzard conditions in western NY and PA. Personally I saw a rainstorm turn to snow late evening and got woke up in the middle of the night to 40-50+ mph winds and thundersnow. The wind was strong enough to take trees down and knock power out. We only had 4-5 inches but there was a straight 6-8 hour period that was a whiteout. Some Laurel's spots up into western NY got way more snow. One of the only times I've seen legitimate blizzard conditions. But I digress, our current storm isn't going to be digging down as much as that one did as you can see on the archive maps. So while I think parts of the Laurel's region into northern and NW PA could see several inches of snow and definitely plenty of wind, the low doesn't get wound up until its moving up through eastern PA into NY state (a theme this year whenever we have had an eastern US low develop). The LES potential looks pretty prolific, with the low closing off over southern Quebec and sitting for a while setting up a westerly flow. Probably better LES potential than the comparison storm I put up in some cases, although I probably wouldn't convince the Rochester folks of that since this one is going to have synoptic tracking further west and then the LES setting up on a more westerly flow. There's going to be monster totals especially off of Ontario where the whole unfrozen length will be utilized with that westerly flow. The favored LES areas in western NY probably will have some big totals too. The lakes are completely open for business, and the airmass this storm is ushering in is a pretty cold one.

Oh wow, I was trying to see if it was showing up on satellite but couldn't see much in that area. What I did see on the satellite loop just before dark (around 5-6pm) was what looked like a couple brush fires in south central NJ. Visible (smoke plumes circled) shortwave IR (hot spots circled)

Holy crap it’s nice out today.

Well I'll probably have the measurable covered by Thur/Fri when I get the usual BS coating to half an inch of LES/upslope behind that system whether it cuts or not. You only need 0.1" to qualify as "measurable" lol. My 30% chance of more than 3" can either illustrate a low likelihood given the pattern to see an event that delivers 3"+ and/or not enough cutters and backlash snow showers to get to 3 inches the rest of the winter.

They tally snow for any given season up til June 30/31, and then from July 1 onward will count toward the next winter (20-21 in the present case). Obviously it's extremely unlikely to snow from late spring to early fall (although some PA sites have had measurable snow recorded in every month) but that's how the season snowfall charts that CTP has on their site for IPT, UNV, MDT, etc are. Otherwise your tallying snowfall from two different winters going Jan 1-Dec 31, which isn't particularly useful info when winters can vary wildly year to year. But yea, right now they're talking the meteorological winter months with snowfall records (DJF). There's 4 seasons so it's just divided evenly for each season (3 months per season). There's meteorological winter and there's also astronomical winter, which ranges from the winter solstice to the spring equinox (Dec 21-22 to March 21-22). At any rate, by the time we get to the beginning of April or whenever the pattern busts out into full fledged spring.. CTP will likely address whatever the totals are vs the records for the whole snow season.

If we're talking IMBY's I'm going with 100%/30% here.

It is very dry today with RH values in the 10-20% range. Even some obs with below zero dewpoints (KMUI has 52º/-1º currently). PA forestry was reporting fine fuels still have some moisture or else CTP probably would have had fire weather products out per their AFD. I'd say tonight would probably be a good star gazing night.

Yea we had several mix events last winter too but we certainly had more that tracked under us as well and most of us scored that mid November snowstorm. We all had a pretty good winter overall last year minus the break it took in December and the first part of January. This winter hasn't even been in the same area code since early Jan. We ran a negative AO in late Jan and most of Feb last year and this year we've run a strongly positive AO with spikes of near record + anomalies in Jan/Feb. That's a huge difference upstairs. Folks like Cashtown had about 50" last winter and MDT had an above average season and this year they're looking at a top 5 least snowy meteorological winter if the 2/27 event doesn't deliver anything there. I've lived here my whole almost 34 years and this one's easily going to be the worst winter I've personally seen unless something big happens late. At any rate, yes it's definitely the lack of deep cold air thats a major part of the difference this year. You have a remarkably consistent and strong PV that locks up the arctic air (+AO) among having some combination of unfavorable MJO phases, +EPO, -PNA and it's pretty clear to see why we've had a horrendous storm track to deal with. Storms like to ride that baroclinic boundary between the warm and cold air and we haven't been on the right end of that. And we've had occasional opportunities, but we've just missed out on them. As for the models handling things, I really haven't personally felt they've been any more horrendous than usual in the mid-long range. There's always digital snow to be chased in the long range. But otherwise, I know I've seen enough cutters at all ranges of the models and in reality to last the rest of the decade this winter. I think there's been some instances of the models trying to change the pattern to a more favorable one in the longer range and thus throwing out storms that are favorable for us only to revert back toward the base pattern we've been in most of the winter.. but we've also had pretty good stretches of them showing (correctly) about as much digital snow as real snow (not very much). Also, that Carolina's/SE VA event got lost a little bit in the mid range but was generally seen on the models pretty far out. You put a Euro D10 snowmap of that on back on the 13th... reality had the swath north of that but the prospect of SE snow was seen well in advance. We're now seeing the another event that has been showing up in the progs the last few days around the 27th. A very robust 500mb low undercutting higher heights that are forecast to temporarily build over Canada with also what looks to be a shortwave dropping in from Canada and phasing to make a significant system. This overall 500mb setup looks good for a strong storm system that could develop a heavy swath of snow, but the problem right now on the progs is the alignment looks to be a bit west of where we'd want it. The ridge axis in the west is being progged along the coast instead of over C-PA preferred Idaho. We could be in better business if we can progress this east enough to pop the low on the coast. The 0z GFS/Euro run this surface low up through central/western PA, while the Canadian was a bit better for true central having the developing low running up the coastal plain.

Ouch, even H-burg has KAOO by 0.1". The only reason I have 13.9" is bc I live at the foot of the Laurel's and can score some of the upslope and LES scraps. KAOO is about 15-20mi SE of the actual city. I still have to just about double that 13.9" just to match any recent junk winter (01-02, 11-12, and 15-16 with or without the big storm) Good chance we take these numbers into March but that system near the 27th-28th has shown some potential to be something, at least for some portion of the region.

This year has had it's obvious flaws with the storm track and for the most part the Laurel's region have been dealing with the same issues as the rest of central PA. That huge coastal a couple weeks ago did deliver them a pretty good event, but yea we haven't had a northern branch regime.. like at all. I can't think of a single clipper that's gotten anywhere near our latitude all winter.. which ties into the lack of established cold and the dominant +AO and the very strong PV. That definitely puts a dent in potential snowfall not only there but in the upslope areas further down in the Mid-Atlantic Apps. This year is a pretty extreme case, but the Laurel's haven't had an especially snowy winter for their standards for several years it seems. Even back in 14-15 when we were in the freezer, the dominant pattern that year with the very negative EPO/++PNA countering a +NAO/AO (not the magnitude of this year) meant more of a prominent westerly or southwesterly flow.. which sent the prolific LES up into western NY and the Tug Hill. We have had a lack of established downstream blocking via the NAO region over the last several winters, which combined with a western ridge, typically sets up the NW flow (290º-320ºish) that aims LES enhanced upslope snows into that region.

I think the NAM is a little too wound up on the Southeast slider. The Euro did finally come on board from being on the non snowy end but certainly not the magnitude of the NAM, which is showing a pretty big swath of 6+ with imbedded double digits. The 12z Euro, with support of it's ensembles is showing more of a general 3-6" type snowfall from TN to Eastern NC sans the OBX. The 12z GFS/GEFS looked to be the least snowy (18z GFS coming in a lot more robust than 12z showing more TN swath and bigger totals in Eastern NC). The biggest consensus on decent snow falls on eastern NC and SE VA just below DT land. So looking at things, the NAM is a big outlier on it's significant totals right now. Where it does have some support from the Euro though, is a more robust snow swath starting all the way back through a significant portion of TN. Other models don't get much going until the piedmont region east of the Apps, so that would be something to watch (18z GFS noted). I think a general 2-5" event running an axis of I-40 in TN from just east of Nashville to eastern NC is pretty reasonable, with the potential for a couple 6-7"s in eastern NC... which is still a bigger event than i've seen here all winter lol. Good opportunity to illustrate my post the other day about the posting of the ensemble snow probs using the whole forecast length. This is a much more useful utilization of these products. Notice the Euro ensemble shows good probs of 3"+ but very limited on 6"+. I consider this a good compromise of the overall model suite right now between the very snowy 12/18z NAM , the less snowy 12z GFS/GEFS/CMC ensemble and the somewhat less snowy 12z CMC (not a lot of TN snow but similar amounts to the Euro in eastern NC).