MAG5035

Your having quite a winter. That much snow easily gets you above average for the whole season on Feb 1st lol.

Finally getting some decent snow. Not out to do new measurements yet but eyeballing between 6-7" on my uncleared board now (storm total).

The D7 storm that generated the majority of the snow in that crazy Kuchera map was a very cold storm (850 temps -8 to -10ºC and colder all storm) and no doubt the Kuchera method was cranking out some really big ratios (probably not realistic for a widespread synoptic system). 10:1 cut the 10 day totals more than in half in the central counties . Either way, it's a very active looking period coming up with significant arctic air in the fold and what appears to be an active storm track. Plus that "cutter" at the end of this week now has more frozen than liquid with it. That's why I started a new discussion thread to talk about all this separate from this long duration storm thread lol.

The best forcing and deepest moisture is a bit NW right now, so your still left with the low level easterly flow still bringing in moisture and snowfall even though crystal growth is limited. This is in the lowest several thousand feet so can't really see it in the LSV from CCX or LWX radar. Looking at KDIX (Philly) radar you can see the radar is filled in with echoes and that continues into the LSV.

Tryin to push... c’mon lol

I've had 1.2" today since I cleared my one board at 9am this morning for a running total of 5.9" so far... in the 33 hrs since this started. Brutal. This has been such a slow event here that my non cleared board is about 5.7" (very little extra compaction).

For AFTER this storm wraps up tomorrow. I just looked at the model guidance out beyond today and figured I'd get this rolling for discussion.. cuz there's going to be plenty to talk about after this storm's over.

Getting this started for after the current storm, the opening two weeks of February are looking slightly active.

Wow that's nuts, and that band looks like it's going to deliver a good bit more if that's the kind of rates your getting.

Steady snow finally restarted back this way, moderate.

State College is looking pretty decent at the moment. Hoping that heavier area between here and Harrisburg is able to get back to the I-99 corridor, it's making a good press so far.

You can see the expansion of the comma head into eastern PA on the IR and WV imagery. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-14-48-1-25-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

How much have you had? Looked like several 7-8" reports up around State College.

I might end up being the only one that doesn't lol. Eyeing up that band between you and me trying to pinwheel down this way.

You look like your going to be in great shape for awhile.

Up to 5.5" after some half decent steady snow for an hour or two. Pretty light right now (looks like a bit of a subsidence zone overhead attm) and there was some partial sun through the clouds not too long ago. Just no consistent good rates with this event here up to this point.

They may mix for a time in the city, northern Jersey though? Yea more than likely. We're not going to get the direct enhanced forcing death band they're getting but this is eventually going to translate into PA in the form of enhancing the deform precip already over PA and perhaps a less intense (but still heavy) embedded band extending into the eastern half of PA somewhere. Personally not ruling out this setting up even further northwest (ala December storm) either. Near term guidance is eventually going to see it and get better placement on it later this afternoon, I dunno how much stock I'd put in the globals at this stage in the game trying to place meso features like this.

Yea it was definitely slow going haha. By the time I fell asleep late last night I had 2.5" to show for 15 hrs of mostly light snow. There looks like a pretty good batch of heavier precip on radar heading for southern Huntingdon County south of 22.

Snowing pretty decently currently, likely some of the best rates of the storm. Wind kicking up too.

I cautioned last night about the widespread nature of big totals getting back deep in C-PA on models like the 12k NAM while also noting that near term stuff like the HRRR probably wasn't seeing the deform shield well enough.. which looks reasonable so far this morning. I think some bigger totals do get back into C-PA but probably in a narrower area within most of the Sus Valley into the central counties seeing more moderate gains today.

Cleared my one board for a 24hr snowfall, which is 4.7". Light to moderate snow and 25ºF.

Light to moderate rate currently I got a uniform 2.5" on my measuring spots. I put a second board out to clear at 24 hrs tomorrow morning. A lot of this afternoon had pretty light snow but 2.5" in about 15 hrs is definitely playing the slow game lol.

Back to the discussion at hand, namely the ongoing storm... I still think the focus of the biggest totals will be that Lehigh Valley area of far eastern PA in northern half of NJ/NYC. And really the NAM still reflected that.. but the 0z run really hooked up with the major deform band reaching far back deep into C-PA. I'm a bit suspect of such a widespread area of a foot plus so far back like the 12k NAM has, but I do think the deform shield is probably being undermodelled on near term guidance like the HRRR. But remember.. HRRR goes out to 18 hours except for the 0,6,12,18z runs and we're still not really at the time when this deform from the deepening coastal gets flung back into PA at the end of the regular HRRR runs. And I'm more looking at other short term guidance for anything out past that anyways. The major features (850/700 lows) are well placed to go along with a very robust 850mb jet pointed into eastern PA so there's likely going to be a stripe of more significant totals.. just not sure on how widespread.

I'm talking about several runs including all of Friday with the op being south and ensemble mean barely getting the 6" line above the mason-dixon line. That 30-40" solution in VA/DC was a couple days before that. Nowhere did I say I discounted it... I just said I didn't think it was superior to other guidance the few days leading up and it wasn't.

Not wrong though, I don't think it was overly superior to other model guidance trying to reel this thing in the last few days. There was that particular run he referenced where the bullseye was in northern VA but it also spent a whole model cycle being south with the 0z Friday run missing a chunk of the Sus Valley and the very area of eastern PA and northern NJ targeted with what will likely be the biggest totals (2'+) was only getting a trace at best.