MAG5035

It’s got Bliizzak’s on for the winter so we can face off on a long snow covered stretch lol. It’s fun to drive, and it does do really well in the snow with the AWD.

Yup sure is haha.

Just got back home, still about 30-31ish. Measured right at 1/4” of ice plus my cable line got taken down (somehow didn’t knock the cable/internet out)

It’s a mess around here this morning as I figured it would be. Still 29-30ish too. Secondary roads look pretty similar to my driveway, state and mains that are treated or were pre salted before are still a slippery slush.

Precip has started. Straight freezing rain, 28ºF

Temps in the low-mid 20s with initial arrival of freezing rain late tonight around here, ugh.

This event is also on the Euro control run today in a much more friendly C-PA positioning. Something to see if it sticks when it gets inside D10. Looks like the next event after tomorrow’s icy mess is going to be in the Jan 15-16 timeframe. The overall pattern going forward looks good for the eastern US. I think we’ll eventually be presented with other snow opportunities

We haven’t had patterns conducive for them much the past couple winters. Two winters ago we had such a positive NAO/AO all winter that the northern branch track was way too far north for them to track where they need to for our area. Last winter we had NAO blocking galore and got the big hitters but still couldn’t score much of those events in between the December and February storms. The mean trough dumped west of us, resulting in that insane OK/TX cold wave later in February and us being on the front of the trough. And of course, this question offers an opportunity to market the potential for clippers going forward with this pattern haha… because it certainly looks like a clipper pattern to me. Broad ridge in the west and us on the back of the trough (NW flow). It also looks like standard colder phase NINA business with the progressive pattern. Gonna be hard for models to see an individual waves in the fast flow, even in the medium range.. so I wouldn’t be surprised if a lighter event suddenly starts showing up. This pattern is going to have some bigger storm potential but is going to really depend on timing for any phasing of shortwaves.. again standard Nina business. It hasn’t been talked about much on here but we’re running in moderate territory in NINO 3.4 (-1.0ºC), with 3 and 1+2 in high end moderate territory (-1.4ºC and -1.5ºC respectively) this past week, and it has been that way the last several. The latest three month average was -0.8ºC. The Nina is definitely having an influence this winter, so hopefully we can keep the MJO away from 4-6 as much as possible.

Agreed, putting the politics/personal opinions aside.. I do read and watch some of his posts on WB and have read his posts in the past when he was still with AccuWx. I kinda think there’s a certain way to “interpret” him if you will, or at least that’s how I approach reading his stuff. He’s very big on analogs and comparing past patterns to a potential upcoming one (often ones that produce a historical past event). And I think the more one realizes that you often can have similar patterns and potential materialize without having it come together for said comparable historical event… the more you can at least kind of see where he’s coming from with any given setup.. He’s also big on sticking to his ideas for as long as possible no matter how sideways the sensible weather pattern gets in comparison. Case in point: this past December. However, I saw a lot of other busted forecasts when it came to this past December and I was wrong in my initial thinking going into the month as well. At any rate, I think that’s a big reason he can come off as sensationalist. That and he has really pushed the 95-96 narrative much more than average this year haha.

I swear when I was in school I came across something in one of my meteorology textbooks that mentioned KAOO reported more days of ZR on average during a year than any other station in the country. I could never relocate it again, so I can’t really support that claim haha. I do know we see more than enough ice setups in this valley right off the Laurels. I know I’ve mentioned this in the past, but the 1950 Great Appalachian Storm which gave Pittsburgh I believe it’s largest ever snowfall was probably the worst ice storm in the history of this local area and was something of the caliber of that or at least the Paducah ice storm. Was trying to find the article but saw something about it for sale on Amazon. I might have to buy it haha. The pictures just on the preview are insane.

I’m personally concerned about the potential for really icy roads Sunday Morning despite what might only be a couple tenths of precip. I look to 925mb often to make that determination on sleet v freezing rain and 925mb gets routed pretty quick on the models with precip arrival along with pretty warm 850 temps that are already established. That’s why you see a really defined line at the Allegheny Front on the 2m map. Probably the first half of Sat Night looks pretty clear and calm so surface temps are going to fall pretty rapidly east of the Alleghenies. This after the cold day today and like temps in the low to mid teens tonight and pack on the ground. I-80 corridor north in C-PA might hold enough depth in the cold to get some sleet while the folks near the M/D line in the LSV might moderate at the surface quicker and have a later onset of precip, but this has higher impact advisory ZR event written all over it for most of PA east of the Laurel’s IMO.

Main stuff has mainly shut off here, measuring 2.5” total. A tad less than I thought we might get here... but a nice snowfall. Judging by PBZ radar, could have some upslope stuff flare up with the westerly flow behind the system toward daybreak.

Looks like some of the better enhanced stuff is even making it all the way up towards Williamsport. The whole Sus Valley from there down appears to be getting into the best rates of this event currently. Looking at LWX radar some of the really heavy stuff is traversing the Mason-Dixon and bottom tier of PA counties (Cashtown and Bubbler) and especially just below in northern MD. This should catch everyone else down below MDT towards York/Lancaster the next couple hours. I think it could be a legit threat Sunday morning simply because we’ll have pack down and the coldest temps of the season on the lead up to Sat Night/Sun Morning. If there’s some rad cooling Sat Night before clouds move in it could be well below freezing. It doesn’t look like a big QPF producer but it doesn’t have to be to make for some really icy roads in that kind of scenario. Def something to keep an eye on once we get through the current event. The actual warm-up on the surface will probably be brief as well, with a frontal passage and reinforcement of cold by Sunday evening. After that it appears we have a stable pattern of western ridge/eastern trough and we’ll have to keep an eye on any shortwaves that eventually materialize.

At 2” here now, moderate rates.

Measured about 1.3” 10-15 minutes ago, but coming down pretty heavily now. Radar looks like a heavier band is setting up overhead at least for the time being.

Snow has begun fast. Steady moderate, 29ºF

Yea it’s looking way better here than even yesterday, plus you guys up there should at least get to 2” or so I think. I’m expecting 3-4” here. Still expecting the real good stuff to be just south but we’ll see.

Here was the 12z HREF today, CTP seems to utilize this pretty heavily and would appear to support the expansion of advisories this afternoon, among the other guidance as well. I think this only runs 12 and 0z. I think warning totals have a chance of happening in a stripe, likely across the southern tier. A more enhanced band could present even a 15-18:1 type ratio. So, I think it could really pile up especially in the Laurel’s and even some of the ridges of Bedford/Fulton/Franklin (6-8”) type if we get the rates and this could carry over into the LSV as well (5-6”). Otherwise this looks like it should be a 2-5” for most of the subforum.

30ºF and cloudy here. It’s got the look and feel outside.

Advisories have been expanded deeper into central PA

Where’s our new play by play guru @Cashtown_Coop? Haha 0z Euro This has really come back around nicely for the subforum, with even our IPT folks in the mix for the couple inches now on Euro and some other guidance.

That was one thing that really stuck out to me this week regarding this system, the potential for nice ratios with a nice cold column. Your post really details that nicely This really has went the classic snowstorm route in terms of forecasting. First in the mid-range everything sees it except the GFS, then the GFS finally sees it and everything goes south for a couple days. And now inside 48 hrs the QPF and northern edge has been coming right back up.

It does have the wave in similar fashion to the other guidance, fairly weak surface low reflection. I mean for the 48hr HRRR it’s nothing completely outlandish. For the composite reflectivity queens hahaha

Some folks in that southern portion of that subforum region are having a case of this because of the snowstorm. From what I understand there are still a lot of people stranded on I-95 below DC in the Fredericksburg area (including VA US Sen Tim Kaine) as of at least earlier today and I believe the stretch between Dumfries and Ruther Glen (between Fredericksburg and Richmond) is still closed. Those double digit top end amounts the models zeroed in on the last couple days did end up coming to fruition and considering how fast it probably came down I couldn’t imagine trying to navigate that stretch of 95 during it. https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/transportation/never-seen-anything-like-it-drivers-stranded-for-15-hours-on-i-95-in-virginia/2926464/ https://www.foxnews.com/us/virginia-i-95-winter-storm-traffic-jam-latest-updates https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/04/weather/winter-weather-tuesday/index.html

Euro tightened northern extent up vs 18z. Looks pretty similar to the Canadian while the GFS finally has it and looks like it has the best northern extent of the 0z ops. Gotta love the mid-range haha. QPF overall really isn’t that impressive at the moment but we do have the wave on all guidance now. As I said before, we should have high ratios with this event in our area. Prob would only take 3-4 tenths to get a warning swath going (in other words just a modest bump in overall QPF) 0z vs 18z Euro (2+ does resume in New England but can only do out to 84 comparing with 18z 90hr)