MAG5035

The big issue I see with the overall pattern getting into the second half of the month is despite nice trending on teleconnection forecasts with the EPO in the process of flipping negative,an eventual development of a -NAO (though looked more east based) and a AO being neutral/somewhat negative (more negative as time goes on with GEFS), the PNA is forecast to stay really negative throughout the period on all models/ensembles. The EPO going negative will take away the overwhelming Pacific air source region and allow the cold air to push into the US, but the western trough (-PNA) implies southeast ridging in response. For us, the opportunity is there for a well timed system to give us maybe our first decent event of the season (such as what the 18z GFS has near the 21st). It could also not materialize at all or it could and get wiped out by a warmer system as the aforementioned pattern alignment probably puts the storm track pretty close to us. We need west based negative NAO/eastern Canadian blocking to force significant cold into our area if we’re going to work with a -PNA. MJO plays into all this as well, forecasts “backtrack” the MJO towards or even back into a 6 for a time before making the move to 8. Not a very big MJO expert but tropical forcing/convection takes time to make a pattern response in the mid-latitudes. I do read JB here and there when I’m using the Weatherbell stuff and he did point out the typhoon tracking towards the Philippines. That extra source of convection (in the Phase 6 region I believe) is the cause of the MJO chart showing that “backtracking” toward 6. With regards to the MJO I think we need to see the definitive move to 8 before we see some more significant cold in the pattern for us, and that could take some time. Again like I said the other day, I think the pattern we’re looking for is coming but it could come after Christmas.

The biggest severe threat is likely to be the gusty winds with the frontal passage and associated narrow band of heavy rain/thunder that is currently just west of Pittsburgh. SPC only has a marginal threat in western PA and SE PA. A lot of central PA east of the Alleghenies with the exception of the southern tier LSV has remained stable and cool air dammed all day. SPC does have a 2% tornado threat in SE PA.. which is probably the best area to advect in warmer, humid air and tap what will probably be really meager (if any) CAPE to go with the increased shearing near the frontal passage. Something to watch maybe York/Lancaster. Otherwise, I’m not super concerned other than just the general high winds we’re going to see late today.

Lol, definitely an elevational component to this storm with the Laurels cashing in on the huge jackpot.

Crushed Heavy flurries and 31°F

The NAM appears to continue to be leading the way with the Wednesday system having much substance in terms of snow amounts across PA. The 3k version even has the 1-3” swath running more NW across northern PA. Today’s Euro does actually jive with the NAM with the swath placement, there’s just not a lot of QPF. More of a T-1” event with focus above the southern tier and LSV. GFS/Canadian pull the focus to the developing weak coastal low taking best precip and potential snow through the northern Mid-Atlantic/DC folks. Given the pattern I could see the cold not pressing south as much with todays frontal passage and seeing an eventual result more towards the northern solutions being presented, which I suppose is good in the short term and getting some kind of minor + snowfall in C-PA but unfortunately this overall pattern we’re facing going into at least mid month is not looking good for everyone’s cold December forecasts. I was also one that expected a quick start, though we did have some cold weather and a bit snow in the latter parts of November. Teleconnections looks atrocious with pretty much all of them opposing what we need (-PNA/+EPO/+NAO/+AO etc). One of the key things I mentioned in a previous longer post about the pattern is we need the PAC to be more supportive this winter as we can’t depend on the kind of extreme -NAO/-AO blocking that helped counteract a Pacific pattern that often wasn’t very supportive. So mid month is looking pretty toasted save for maybe that weekend system providing some kind of changeover thing behind it. Regardless, any cold isn’t sticking around in this pattern. How long this lasts probably depends on what the MJO does, as it is becoming of a stronger magnitude that should be a more significant driver in the overall pattern…especially in the alignment that’s being forecast teleconnections wise. Some models have been wanting to mire that in the Phase 6 or Phase 6/7 border range before maybe starting to shoot into 7 towards the end of the medium range (basically getting near X-mas week). As it’s been talked about here and elsewhere, Phase 7 for the NDJ three month avg period is a colder phase for most of the lower 48, in stark contrast to Phase 6.. which is NEVER a good phase for the eastern CONUS at any point in the late fall or winter. Also an aside on Phase 7 around our part of the country, a deeper look into those significance % maps that go with the phase temp maps suggests a lot of variability in the eastern US vs say like the north central. Basically what I’m trying to explain is a flip to cold isn’t necessarily the slam dunk here that it probably is in the northern plains. A lower percentage on the significance map (the blues and purples) are stronger correlations to the temp pattern presented for each phase, which are based on historical cases. Phase 6 always presents basically the strongest case of “if it’s in this phase, the eastern US is toast”. So the MJO has been into Phase 6 for the last few days, which we are going to be seeing the influence of later this week as the EPO goes way positive to go with a pretty negative PNA. It seems the GFS/GEFS get it into 7 faster than the Euro/EPS, which is the one that keeps it mired in the 6/7 border longer. The latter is probably not going to flip our pattern to cold and you’d probably want to see it start steadily progressing 7 heading towards or into 8 (a better NDJ cold phase for the NE) to actually see what the 12-15 day range of the GFS has been showing. For the record I do still think we’re going to get the cold/wintry period we’re looking for down the road but we’re going to have to navigate this lousy period and however long it lasts first. Hopefully we won’t have to wait til after X-mas but that’s unfortunately a possibility on the table at the moment.

Yea it’s a pretty robust band coming. There were actually some lightning strikes detected with it when it was near Cambria/Blair counties. I’m not home the next day or so but It looks like it’s delivering a fresh coating of snow over in Altoona. Here in NW Huntingdon County there’s not much going on at camp. The elevation here is only about 800ft or so and I think it’s just a bit warm. Just a few miles away towards US 22 at Water Street it’s trying to lay on the road looking at 511PA cams. I’m sure up the mountain where we hunt is a different story, here was a pic from this morning up there. Measured about 1.2”. My cameras at home looked like they had a similar amount (which mostly had melted this afternoon). From this morning:

Just mainly some light snow so far with a light coating. Nice to be back in action with the winter events.

I’ll be reporting here and there overnight and tomorrow on the proceedings tonight, just from camp in NW Huntingdon County. I’m expecting a general 1-2” here and over at home in Altoona. 511 cams already have snow covered roads up in Cambria (219 corridor near Johnstown).

He just did his wintercast the other day that I just watched through. Top three analogs, 05-06, 08-09, 11-12 with 05-06 being the strongest. Calling for the cold December like most and meh the rest of the winter. It’s a 20 min video, he starts into the actual forecast part at about the 16 min mark lol. https://www.wearecentralpa.com/weather/weathercast/wintering-weather-a-your-weather-authority-special/

I think there’s light snow chances to be had in this short-medium range pattern that sets up behind the main shortwave and attending frontal passage Thurs night into Fri. Temp wise it looks like we’re going to have a solidly below average regime at least into the middle of next week after Thanksgiving. Models imply a northern branch dominated storm pattern and have shown that one or more of these fast moving shortwaves could produce some kind of a light event. Case in point today’s 12z Euro/12z Canadian for the period around Sunday/Sunday night, which both showed a weak northern branch low redeveloping on the coast (Euro was a bit south of the area and Canadian tracked the low across a little high). Something to keep an eye on…. Not really a big hitter look for us by any means but a 1-3” type deal that runs through with one of those embedded shortwaves is easily within the realm of realistic possibility. Regardless, I think we’re in a okay spot as it’s only late November. I mentioned in my last post several days ago I didn’t think we were ready for any kind of established deep winter pattern yet and it seems like it’ll be a work in progress getting into the early part of December (teleconnections don’t look as great after mid week next week). Nothing that’s really out of the ordinary, though. This time of the year is often a transitional and very changeable period.

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it. This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of snow over a large part of PA. The Euro has also occasionally had wound up coastal runs that had interior PA snow. It’s definitely a timeframe with potential with what looks to be a pretty significant amplification of the pattern and favorable trending of pretty much all the major teleconnections going into next week (NAO/AO going negative and nice Greenland block, EPO/PNA going positive). Big takeaway regardless of the eventual evolution of the features that may or may not deliver a coastal is the Thanksgiving holiday and the couple days either side look like they could be pretty cold. Some of you guys might even have to turn the AC off haha. I’m not sure if a straight up winter pattern sticks quite yet. Kinda looking more into the start of December or so for the possibility of that. The early stratwarm events and Nina ENSO state are lending support to what has seemed to be a general theme of a quick start and cold December in most prognosticators winter forecasts. Lining up the teleconnections and keeping them in the direction they appear to be heading next week will def go a long way to giving the east a cold pattern right off the bat kicking off meteorological winter. The return of significant blocking in the NAO/AO realm really saved us last winter against a pattern on the Pac/western US side that was rarely favorable. So one thing I’m looking for as a key to success of consistent cold winter weather this winter is having the favorable Pacific/Western US pattern as I wouldn’t trust depending on seeing the kind of long lasting anomalous -NAO we saw last year.

Some lingering light snow falling and 35ºF. Wasn’t home for the heavier precip earlier but it looked to have been a light car topper here. I did get my first official “roads caved” pic of the year at the top of Wopsy Mountain. Didn’t have a ruler with me but probably about 1.5” or so of wet snow up there in the grassy spots. Seemed like about 1500’ was where the switch flipped from a car topper to a coating+. There’s some light accumulation on the ridges east of Altoona as well. IMBY was just a couple hundred feet elevation too low for this one. Either way, good to see a wintry type event fairly early just getting to Mid-November. There was even some light WAA snow falling first thing this morning as well but temps were too warm.

Seeing the first flakes of the season mixing in up here at my hunting area on Tussey Mountain (NW Huntingdon Co)

Some thoughts on Sunday evening’s system.. It’s been a pretty consistent feature on modeling the last several days. This has a pretty good chance at delivering the first widespread bout of snow in the western half of PA and maybe into some of the central counties. It could have been for the rest of PA as well but the trend has been for models taking the low pressure through the lower lakes.. which will spell downsloping issues east of the Alleghenies and in general take the primary slug of precip up through western PA. I don’t think accumulations will be anything too significant, maybe up to a couple inches in the higher terrain. At any rate, winter is definitely upon us soon. On a related note, how bout that 0z GFS coming in? I’ll take 36” of snow on the ground for Thanksgiving lol.

There’s some kind of fire up to the north of here today, visible on the regional satellite as well as from my house here. Looks like at the top of the Allegheny front somewhere above Tyrone or maybe a bit further north. Unsure if it’s an actual brush fire or controlled burn, haven’t seen anything on the news. Shortwave IR Visible

I don’t usually get super fired up like the Facebook/Twitter coaching staff gets when either team doesn’t do well but I was def mad about having Boswell run a fake in a close game like that. Let your pro bowl caliber kicker do what he does best.

With regards to this week, I think the big story is going to be the marked change from October’s persistent warmth with this new pattern finally bringing C-PA a below average regime temp wise. As I mentioned last week, it appears we will be addressing the fact we haven’t had a widespread frost or freeze pretty directly to open up November. A weak disturbance Tuesday will likely deliver the regions first snowflakes at elevation as well. I know there were some rumblings on the models of an end of week coastal but I think pattern’s a bit progressive to give us much from whatever materializes. Thus I think dry and chilly will be the general theme this week. Considering how far behind the leaves are I don’t know if I’d want an early season snowstorm quite yet. Already some early strat-warming going on and associated disturbing of the PV. So that’s going to be interesting to see how it factors into how we open up the first part of the winter, specifically after say Nov 15-20th or so into December where snow threats become more doable if the appropriate pattern and cold are available.

It’’s been a brutal weather day around here as temps fell into the mid 40s by lunch time with periods of rain and gusty winds that have occasionally topped 30mph. Mesowest showing some upper 30s temps in some of the higher Laurel’s locations. The raw weather has definitely illustrated how warm this October had been to date (especially with min temps) that we’re pretty much seeing the coldest temps of the month (high or low) in the midst of the first major nor’easter of the fall/winter vs a clear, cold radiational cooling morning. Looking pretty likely we’re exiting October at the end of the week with not even a widespread frost much less any kind of hard freeze for any part of C-PA. It does appear that we could be quickly addressing those cold weather things (and perhaps more in some parts of PA) within the first week or so of November, though. It’s been a pretty wild month. Have to mention that NWS Pittsburgh now confirmed 11 tornadoes just in their CWA from that “marginal” severe threat last Thursday which has to be the most significant severe/tornado outbreak seen in that region for this time of the year. I can’t even think of a recent single severe event at any other point of the year that delivered so many tornadoes, and NWS Cleveland also had several confirmed as well. Might have been looking at May 31, 1985 similarities in terms of stronger tornadoes had that synoptic setup presented itself that time of the year (more heating/CAPE)

It’s likely that the severe aspect of the line likely won’t hold across the mountains. The big parameter with this line driving into western PA with what appears to be multiple couplets (probable QLCS tornadoes and/or wind damage) is nearly 50 knots of effective bulk shear in western PA. The SPC mesoanalysis near term forecast fizzles this parameter out later this evening, likely due to no CAPE east of the mountains (western PA has marginal CAPE present). But still wouldn’t rule out some gusty showers or storms though as this line out there is associated with the frontal passage/potent shortwave. Also, I promise to post more as we get onward toward winter… I’ve been pretty busy lately. It’s nice to see so much activity in this thread these days.

Couple other pics of the river from a bit further up the road in Spruce Creek, PA.

Rain has ended back this way. Got a few pics but flooding on this end of the county was not as significant as the southern half of the county, roughly from the 22 corridor south. This video (if it works), is the Little Juniata right by the gauge station ( LIttle Juniata @ Spruce Creek). This is just shy of flood stage at the time. It has since cracked into flood stage so there is likely some water on the road at that spot now. 8C2A7DFC-5540-4FE3-9C84-928C8078F8C2.MOV

Will be heading out to get some footage/pics as far as I can still safely make it somewhere.

Per scanner app they’re getting ready to close off US 22 between Hollidaysburg and Water Street (likely near the Canoe Creek/Williamsburg) area with the river already nearly about to come over it. Frankstown Branch of the Juniata now forecast to crest only a couple feet from it’s Hurricane Ivan record crest.

Been moderate to heavy rain all morning and since the later overnight hours here. Bit of a breeze too. The next several hours are when the worst of this in terms of rainfall rates traverses central and the LSV. Circled on the image is the area of enhanced heavy rainfall that has shown up well on all the model guidance the last few days. Roughly south of the dashed line I drew is generally where I think the heaviest rain will reside. Very concerned about my area and especially along the turnpike where parts of Bedford/Fulton/Franklin saw heavy rain last night before this main precip shield. I’d be willing to bet that double digit amounts have the best chance of showing up in that area.

Here’s the flash flood guidance (1, 3, and 6hr) from MARFC for reference. Also headwater flood guidance for CTP’s region