MAG5035

Surprised CTP doesn’t even have any flood advisory products up. Scanner app has lit up with all sorts of flooding issues in the usual trouble spots in the Altoona and surrounding area. Up to 2.89” on the rain gauge. Had a max rate of about 1.7”/ hour at one point.

Heavy rain being registered on the weather station at home. Also pressure down to 996mb 1.32”/hr rate and 2.2” total

Re: The 70s temps and near 70 dewpoints in the LSV, one has to remember the source region of this event which is the remnants of a tropical system and the associated warmth and humidity being drawn directly up from the tropics via southerly flow by the approaching frontal boundary. A relatively rare set up for nearly Mid-November since tropical systems much less a low end landfalling hurricane being drawn up the East Coast don’t come along very often this time of the year. This is very evident looking at PWAT anomalies, as the true tropical source region has had PWATs in the 1.5-2” inch range during this event. That’s good for being in the +3 to 5 sigma range for this time of the year (a highly anomalous event). The anomalies associated with the back end pushing into western and central PA currently are even greater than that. In addition to the warmth and humidity, there’s likely to be some overachieving rain totals this evening via torrential downpours as this frontal boundary pushes and brings the remnant core of Nicole up through PA.

1.15” is the total on the rain gauge at home so far. Im reporting from camp over in Huntingdon county where it has been equally as rainy. I’ll be updating on the creek level later on.

Boy that’s a major difference between that map and WeatherBell’s. Here’s the same 6hr frame from WB Looking at the 850 and 925’s, there is support for frozen at least up front (in support of the Weatherbell version) but the parent 850 low also goes NW of PA on this run.

I’ll say it, I like the look of this potential Tuesday night system being an early season wintry event for a decent sized chunk of C-PA. Certainly the interior counties but perhaps some of the LSV as well. Decent cold (for November) set in place by today/tonight’s system preceding and a system from the Gulf attacking a fairly strong Canadian high that slides to our north as the system heads into our region. QPF hasn’t looked overly prolific on most guidance but given the Gulf of Mexico moisture source it could trend wetter. 12z GFS just coming out for example has a stronger system like the Euro but more of a defined Miller B evolution.. which probably isn’t ideal for the LSV. I’m not sure this would be the caliber of a November 2018 but certainly at least some kind of light to perhaps moderate event is on the table. Either way, we have serious discussion of some wintry business inside of 5 days already in mid November so that’s a good thing.

Thanks for the head’s up on this, I’ve been slowly catching up with being quite busy this fall and not having much time to check in on here. That posting is still open for 4 more days so I’m glad I caught your post today haha.

I think the biggest thing that would concern me for a possible detriment to a average or above average snow is the moisture aspect over temps given the very dry October into first part of November we just had. I’m worried about a longer term below average precip regime persisting. Hopefully, this much needed rainfall tomorrow associated with the significant frontal system pulling Nicole up will be a catalyst to get us into a wetter pattern. Otherwise yea I think we will see the usual Nina issues with perhaps more cutters than we’d like to see and some big temp swings. We tracking at a moderate Nina right now which is forecast to continue that way through at least the first half of the winter so there definitely will be some influence there. What happens with regard to the dominant pattern in the mid-latitudes and Arctic region (NAO/AO/ Pacific, etc) will determine whether we see much of the “colder” or “warmer” La Niña effects (or both). Again, my worry snow wise is having the cold but not the active wet pattern to go with it. I agree to a point with the reduced Nor’easter threat but SSTs in the Northwest Atlantic are significantly above average (as they have been this time of the year the last however many years it seems). The Nina influence may not be overly conducive to an active southern jet and a train of coastals but if we do get a setup for one, and we usually do a couple times a winter even in less favorable overall patterns.. those +SST’s would figure to be a factor into really winding one up. If we get a fast starting winter on the front end I think this would be the best chance for us to score something like that early since we’re further inland from the coastal plain (that region can be too warm with the +SSTs and a low that tracks too close to the coast in an early season storm).

Here with the first snow/roads slightly caved pic of the season. This is a few miles west of Ebensburg in Cambria Co currently. Also I promise I’ll be back to posting more often soon. I’ve been really busy lately.

I would imagine you’ll get a piece of the stuff that’s just east of State College, but likely what you said with maybe some heavier rain and thunder/lightning. Mixed layer CAPE is trying to build into eastern PA but there’s also a good amount of CIN (convective inhibition) from the lingering cloud cover/much lower surface temps on that end of the state (not to mention current convection is shooting a lot of high clouds eastward. Really surprised at the lack of initiation of convection in south central PA though (west of the Sus where the sun really broke out). I thought that to be a ticking time bomb this afternoon given parameters and approaching front. SPC did trim but maintain the tornado watch, likely a hat tip to said parameters which are still good, but I’m not as concerned as I was this afternoon. There was really a split in convection between the north central PA stuff and the more robust stuff sagging south just west of Pittsburgh.

This is definitely one of the better summertime significant severe/tornadic type setups I’ve seen recently around these parts, at least “on paper”. Lots of heat, high dewpoints (at or above 70), large CAPE, high LI, decent shear, BRN values supportive of discrete supercells, etc. The combination of these has all the composite indices (supercell, hail size, significant tornado parameters) very high today on the mesoanalysis. The radar split is definitely notable right now, as the hole figures to translate into the portion of PA that has some of the best severe indices. With that said, the portion of PA between here and Harrisburg really needs to be watched for discrete cell action if it does fire up as the EHI values being generated there honestly concern me a bit. A 0-1km EHI of 1 is enough for possible tornadoes. 4+ is significant. And the 0-3km values are stupid high. This ribbon does extend up into northern PA where current action (and the Elk County tornado warned cell) are moving towards. I’d also look for the Sus Valley to become more favorable with the late clearing this afternoon. 0-1km EHI 0-3km EHI Significant tornado parameter

Well, I obviously would have rather seen a storm like this in the frozen form in Dec-Feb but I did score some flooding pics. This was in the next valley over from Altoona (Sinking Valley). Definitely lots of runoff coming out of that valley. These flooding pics are from a minor tributary, not the river it eventually feeds into. Fortunately that heavy enhanced stuff did stay east this afternoon or this would have been a much more significant river flooding event around here. The local stuff is currently cresting mostly in the minor category. Rain totals here at home are up to 3.71” for the event and also 5.07” for the week with the rain/thunderstorms we got Tues eve into Wed morning. That additional rain earlier in the week was likely a factor in why the Juniata basin was the more vulnerable area for this event.

Continued light to moderate rainfall currently. 3.58” is the total rainfall so far as measured by my gauge (Ambient WS-5000 station). 2.7” through midnight yesterday and 0.88” so far today since midnight. A check of other stations on the network around town have similar amounts as well (generally within a couple tenths of my amount). It looks like CCX radar has been low balling its precip estimates with this event. It has seemed mostly like a very efficient type rainfall and I wonder if a different VCP setting would be more accurate in that regard. Either way a really impressive synoptic event with the signature highly anomalous easterly fetch drawing in a boatload of moisture.. Minor flooding issues in the usual spots are ongoing, but definitely concerned this afternoon if that enhanced stuff lurking in between Harrisburg and Williamsport manages to back its way back into here. We’re at a point where a period of heavy rainfall is going to escalate flooding issues pretty quick.

I’m sure the higher Laurel’s ridges are racking some snow up with the strength of these squalls today. I probably would have added another couple inches here so far today if it was the dead of winter. I’m impressed that a good bit of yesterday’s snow is still on the ground. I’ll add that I have definitely been ready for the warmer seasons to take hold. The last several weeks have really reminded me of 2018. Most of that April was brutal too.

Spring is going to return later this week but definitely not today haha. Getting whacked with a snow squall at the moment.

Still some steady snow falling. The total for the event is currently 4.6” here at 1300’… the majority of which (about the first 3” or so) fell between about 12-3pm. I caved and brought the snowblower back to clear the driveway this afternoon. I got a rough measurement at the top of Wopsy Mountain 4 miles away (at 2400-2500’) at around 930. There was about 8” up there.

It’s right in the middle of the forecast range right now for the advisory, which for this county was 2-4 with up to 6 on the ridge tops. The ridges probably do have a bit more but in general the elevational component is out the window at the moment in this area. The key late this afternoon into part of the evening is going to be how the precip shield evolves as the coastal winds up. If we remain in the steady moderate to heavy precip which seems to be a possibility on the last couple runs of the HRRR than yea, this is definitely going to overachieve and probably be a warning event. But if we get a lull or miss the banding that winds up from the coastal, it’ll probably be close to what was forecasted. Either way, this is impressive for being right at the max solar part of the day.

Just measured 3.2”, still heavy snow and 31.5ºF. What a beat down.

I was about to say that the best part of this is that it’s probably the best synoptic rates I have seen the entire season and it’s happening on April 18th.

Past an inch on the ground, it is pouring snow right now. All paved surfaces are caving. Temp is 31ºF.

Even the turnpike is fully caved. It seems like Bedford and Fulton are getting whacked right now. This screen grab is just east of Breezewood. That stretch from Bedford to Breezewood is all covered. This was what I was alluding to yesterday with all bets being off regardless of elevation if we had heavy rates collapse the column and a quick/clean transition to all snow. That stretch of the turnpike is not a high elevation area other than the Sideling Hill area.

Snow rates have really increased with a pretty heavy rate currently. Temp is down to 31ºF and accumulations are starting to occur on most non-paved surfaces.

Over to all snow now with 36/21. Some 511 cams already have snow on roads down in Somerset County, even on the turnpike near the Allegheny Tunnel and also 219 near Meyersdale..

Light precip just commencing here on a pretty stiff southerly wind gusting to about 25 mph or so. Mainly pingers so it’s already a frozen form. Temp is 38ºF but the dewpoint is 18ºF, so I expect a clean snow transition and a quick temp drop to freezing when the much heavier stuff on the doorstep arrives.

Some trees have blossomed out along with stuff like daffodils and Magnolia blossoms but at least in this area there is basically zero leaf out of anything to this point thanks to what has been quite the bi-polar month that has been chillier more often than warm so far. And that’s down here at this elevation in the valley (and also in town), so fortunately if there are significant amounts that aspect shouldn’t be a factor.