MAG5035

I was considering that potential event next week as the last good chance of something bigger before we’re at a point where it becomes much harder to line something up, though we’re likely to be dealing with periods of notable below average temps the rest of the month into early April. As it looks now, I think yesterday’s nor’easter probably will be the signature event of the 22-23 winter in the Northeastern US. Something finally took advantage of those flaming hot above average SSTs in the NW Atlantic we’ve had all winter and there were several 30-40”+ amounts to show for it in the higher/more interior parts of NWS Albany and Boston’s CWAs. On that same note, I feel that same thing probably contributed to the lower elevations of southern New England doing their best LSV impression with big snow map totals and not much on the ground to show for it.

This threat can definitely come back but it’s certainly not looking great today. Models seem to be really keying in on another strong trough dumping into the SW US which supresses whatever southern stream energy that does eject out while building eastern heights. Result is no amp to strengthen or turn that shortwave up while we have plenty of well below average climo air around (our period of opportunity) and also to set the stage for an inevitable cut after that modifies. Euro 12z today vs 12z yesterday

1.0” was the total last night here. 25ºF and quite blustery this morning. Max gust of 44.7mph already. Haven’t had much snow driving opportunities this winter so took the 5 mile drive up Wopsy mountain middle of last night. There was at least a 5-6” pack up there from the last few days.

Winter has been getting closer to us since the latter part of February, as pretty much every cutting event to the lakes since then was forced to secondary south of New England. Not in time for us of course, but the interior NE and New England has been catching up. Even northern PA has to some degree too. The significant Nor-easter ongoing in Upstate New York and New England came together just a bit too late for us. We’re definitely in a different pattern regime now. Yea the MJO lowers in amplitude as it progresses into 1 and 2 and eventually the null phase by late month, but it’s literally off the chart right now. It has to be a record or near record amplitude. After spending the whole winter failing to get into 8-1-2 during more “favorable” periods, the rubber band definitely snapped in that regard… also signaling the true death of the Nina and likely incoming Nino. In the more nearer term, it’s indicative of predominantly below average temperatures mid-late month for this part of the country (and a large part of the CONUS as a whole) as this progresses to 1-2. Problem is, obviously, mid-late March climo is a different ballgame than Feb-early March. I posted a few weeks ago how the loop back of the MJO at the time was going to push the pattern change to colder than average back. From 2/22 Not a perfect take by any means from 3 weeks out but I feel the main points ended up coming to fruition. So onward from now this week, we moderate back to average-above average the latter half of the week as we have a brief spike positive in the EPO. The next system at the end of the week is a definite cutter but it ushers in a pretty major cold shot for the time of the year. It’s of the caliber we need at this point that can set up the next system to be cold enough for a notable snow swath with the right track. We have SW energy to come out following the cutter and models are going to do a variety of things with it at this range. There’s been some nice hits here and there in that 3/21-23 period, with the 0z Euro and current 6z GFS as the most recent examples of what could happen in our subforum. I like the potential of that period, and we had a big storm on pretty much those dates back in 2018.. which has been referenced as a comparable March to this one with teleconnections/preceding stratwarm/MJO/etc. Either way, these are the 5 day avg temp anomalies centered on that D5-10 period:

It looked like your neck of the woods made a good case for probably should’ve been part of the winter weather advisory tonight.

A quick half inch here and even some sporadic road cavage out of that band of squalls now pressing towards State College. Another 23.75 hours of those conditions and maybe it could’ve compared to this date 30 years ago haha.

Some steady snow has developed back this way and 31ºF. Back to a coating on the grass, minus the sun this time.

Judging by the mPing reports it looks like even the DC folks are going to see some flakes out of this quick band of precip that has made it across. It delivered a really short lived light coating on the grass here that’s already gone.

Finally some respectable rates after all day to get something on the ground. Crushed lol

Patchy light snow here, temp has been a steady 33-34ºF. Have a light coating on some parts of the yard and mulch but nothing really measurable. The front end of this system has been a mess from the get go, which really hurt the LSV’s chance at seeing measurable with this, since there were flakes in most areas this morning. I’ll be surprised if CTP hangs on to the advisories south of I-80 with their afternoon updates but upstream PBZ radar is looking the best it has for the whole event, with a more solid area of precip associated with the weak surface low itself. So looks fairly probable central counties will get a period of steady precip early this evening with elevation variable snow totals.

Looking over column thermals on the models at 850 and 925mb, there’s really good consensus on a snow column for pretty much anywhere in here for most/all of this Friday/Fri Night event. 850s stay well below zero anywhere in PA other than far SW PA and 925mb 0 line touches the PA/MD line briefly on some guidance. 700mb temps cool below -10ºC as the event evolves and the 700mb low tracks over PA, which could aid in ratios in the snow growth department. I know there’s obviously been very little to show in the LSV but the last 2-3 events have featured a colder than advertised column on onset that has allowed it to put some snow to the ground in parts of the Sus Valley that it wasn’t really in the forecast prior. This has a much better setup. Even though dying primary tracks thru PA, forced secondary development well southeast and flat trajectory of the primary ensure warm advection aloft likely won’t be a big issue and 850s hold below zero. Basically I think everyone will see snow falling, but I see a few potential issues as limiting accum factors. They’re somewhat tied together but surface temps, rates, and overall QPF. Models can print out mid 30s in the LSV at the surface or whatever and depending on timing they might be there before the event starts but if snow comes in at good enough rates you’re coming down to near or below freezing regardless, which will allow accums. I think the initial WAA stuff that comes in will be sufficient in that department, though there’s likely to be at least some elevational component. The other thing is QPF, that’s where the low track comes into play in this setup. I don’t think this dislodges the snow supporting snow column, but NW-SE primary track thru PA as it transfers to VA Beach/northern OBX will put the best QPF just to the north/northeast of the low track. Right now it would seem northern half or so of PA in best position for the highest QPF and the LSV/southern tier could be in a bit of a weak spot after the initial WAA precip. But that’s dependent on ultimate track and transfer timing. It seems like there will be some precip shield lingering overnight Friday somewhere in PA, where lighter rates will have an easier time accumulating. Could be another brief flare up of heavier precip (snow) in eastern PA as the coastal gets going well offshore as well, like the 12z Euro really suggested. That could help the Lanco folks.

I’m not typically the snowmap poster on things past D5 or so but the 0z Euro was fun. Event #1 Fri night into Sat Event #2 the following Tues/Wed Just a complete coastal detonation in eastern PA on this second system. I’ll actually buy that solution if @Voyagerhappens to be visiting Tamaqua next week.

33ºF and moderate to heavy snow falling currently with a brisk NNE breeze, a rare combo in this winter. Precip arrival a couple hours ago didn’t mess around p-type wise and this has actually been mainly snow here. Accums starting in the grass and deck, too bad the back edge is coming.

Certainly looking pretty good for verified warning totals pretty much where they have them placed looking at current radar trends with that heavy band. The few 511 cams and RWIS up on that US 6 corridor are already getting pounded by heavy snow. I’ll bet PA 144 and 44 between Renovo and Coudersport is quite an adventure right now. US 219/US 6 US 6 east of Coudersport

It might not matter for most in here but that Monday night event is intriguing, especially for the IPT folks and maybe atomix. Only the Euro really took the snow swath thru the heart C-PA up until the last few runs where other guidance is focusing northern third to half of PA after mainly being PA/NY border and north. Low tracks just south of PA but cold is marginal. Best QPF swath will run along a thin ribbon of F-gen forcing, wherever that may set up. Best bet is probably above I-80 and maybe dropping under that some in eastern PA but if the boundary trends south a bit this could get places like UNV and middle Sus between MDT and IPT more involved. Would be a quick hitter but could be some good rates (and respectable ratios) within that F-gen forcing induced band. Guidance is putting up some pretty significant snow totals. I dunno about widespread warning amounts in northern PA but most non Euro guidance in fact has just that. NAM and new GFS op have a swath of 10”+. Certainly a swath of advisories look to be a pretty good likelihood.

There was an opening at CTP back in early November that was part of a large posting for something like 26 openings in 21 offices. The only offices in the NE/Mid Atlantic in that posting were CTP, Binghamton and Caribou, ME. I actually put in for CTP but got the all too familiar “eligible but not referred”.

Models have definitely been having issues on how they want to ultimately eject this shortwave out of the west. I tend to think op guidance (esp GFS) seems to be hanging this back too much and allowing a lot of heights to build ahead. I’m watching for now and staying open to all options though. Euro was the one that ultimately caved to yesterday’s storm around D5 when it was putting out snow runs similar to last night’s 0z. One thing I’m fairly certain about is regardless of what this system does, the aftermath is going to set us into a longer term colder than average regime with a mid-month period that looks to be significantly colder than average. Models were picking up on this system all the way outside D10 as it is a major feature that represents a more wholesale pattern change and is likely the direct response of the MJO having moved into phase 8, the WPO/EPO nosediving all the way into major negative territory, the PNA neutralizing, etc. It’ll definitely be the catalyst for the pattern change but the big question is will the blocking be enough to keep it under us and bring about this change with a snowstorm up front. It can’t hang back and build heights or we probably have the same ordeal as yesterday with a late secondary attempt that’s too high for us. All bets are off afterwards though, I’d be surprised if we got out of the ensuing 10-15days without having had a legitimate shot at an event.

High gust so far recorded on my weather station has been 38mph, but it has almost certainly gusted a good bit higher than that at times. The house seems to shield the station a bit from SW type winds. Had a brief loss of power as well, which hasn’t happened here in awhile.

Pingers and 33ºF. Measured 1.2” of snow at the transition.

I’ve been busy the last couple days but I wasn’t sure how things were going to fare when the short range stuff lost most of any kind of front end snow. Looked like the Euro and even GFS did better. Here’s how my rain/sleet/snow/less than a half inch forecast grid is going so far today. Over an inch on non paved.

I also added the 925mb to that post as well, I had hit post before I was done with it haha.

Yea that mid-week wave was what was bringing the frontal boundary down to set the edge for Friday. Friday’s event has been timing somewhat faster and the mid-week wave really hasn’t been pressing the front either. Spacing is definitely an issue, but so is the strength of Friday’s system. An already bombed out 976mb coming up the Mississippi out of the Ozarks isn’t ideal. It responds to the block and tries to secondary but the primary is too strong. There’s going to be some kind of a mix event for most or all of C-PA with this, but going to have to figure out thermals. Most guidance places a deep wedge of low level cold east of the Alleghenies all the way up through 850mb. Typically that’s enough to ensure what would be a significant period of front end snow, but there is prolific warm advection all the way up at 700mb (10k feet) due to the very strong 700mb low associated with the mature primary well west that would cut into that potential. That elevated of a warm nose would indicate to me sleet would be a predominant p-type for a while. I will say when it comes to the more mesoscale thermal features that are common around here I personally prefer the Euro when it comes to global guidance over the GFS… and then short range/high res stuff once it’s close enough. So here was 6z Euro. Hr 87 temps at 925mb Same hour at 850mb Same hour at 700mb

30 or so is a bit of a stretch, C-PA has had below average months as recently as October and December. This was 2022 as a whole.

That stuff on the doorstep to R-ville looks like it means business.

511 cams showing least a coating on the ground and some slushy roads in and around State College down I-99 at least as far as Port Matilda and possibly Tyrone. Some sleet accum on the grass here. Trying to changeover here but surface temps still a bit warm (around 36ºF).