MAG5035

1.09” of much need rain here today, it’s a start.

After doing a rare June perusing of the models and discovering that there is an HRRR cross section smoke forecast, MDT looks to see a rapid deterioration within the next hour or so according to that (or perhaps right now-ish per JNS’s ob), which is supported by the general motion observed on the visible satellite imagery. Also want to note in the previous post the station obs plots in the satellite imagery. Another really anomalous part of this setup aside from the severity of the Canadian wildfires themselves is the major North American blocking pattern that is directly discharging Canadian air via due northerly flow.. which is why we’re in the crosshairs of all this smoke in the first place. Dew points are in the low to mid 30s across the commonwealth, occasionally even in the upper 20s at some PA sites this afternoon… something CTP noted last night in their disco as practically unheard of for June around here. PWAT map is another example of how dry the airmass is.

NE PA/NJ/NYC/LI is definitely where the worst of the smoke is currently, as evidenced by the visible satellite as well as the AQI maps.

The closest cell around here earlier this afternoon that mainly moved through Cambria County delivered some rain drops but not enough to register measurable on the rain gauge. Last measurable was May 20 (0.17”) and total last 30 days is 0.7”.

The near 4800’ peak just south of Canaan Valley State Park, WV (aka Mount Porte Crayon) doing it’s best Mammoth Mountain impression on the zones. This is the kind of setup (prolonged post storm cyclonic flow upslope event) that has been missing quite often for what seems like the last 5+ winters and is a prime driver in those snow departure maps that were shared around during the winter such as this one below showing one of the biggest departures anywhere in the eastern US (inch wise and also percentage of average) in these very areas. This setup occurring in the middle of winter would have likely yielded a long duration 1-2’ type upslope event just in the Laurel’s at their elevations. I know one of these maps were floating around that incorporated the last few winters back to 19/20 but it’s the same general theme for the Laurel’s/Alleghenies. These type of upslope events via this setup are a major part of what gets the higher elevations and ski resorts of that region their high snow averages (>150”).

Already acquired the 5/1 T for the day, just got blasted by a graupel shower that took the temp all the way down to 40ºF. Because April heat brings May sleet, or something like that. What a bipolar spring.

0.73” for the day and 1.47” since Friday are my totals. Other noteworthy ob was my station was down as low as 990mb earlier. Def a pretty impressive coastal low.

Regarding the mountain snow chances, I’m definitely intrigued. CTP acknowledges to a point, noting potential of light accums on non-paved surfaces in the Alleghenies. Given the signal on the models, I think the potential is there for a more significant event but it’s going to be highly elevation dependent. The broad brushing of the globals (esp GFS) having the high totals over all of the Laurel’s is likely overdone. The 12z 3k NAM had a presentation of accums that looked a bit more realistic IMO. When I say highly elevation dependent I mean accums will be purely driven by it. Best timeframe appears to be Tuesday as a reinforcing shortwave pinwheels through driving upslope precip in western PA. During this time 925mb temps are marginal (a degree or so above zero. Since we’re under such a significant upper level low, 925mb heights are only around 570m, or about 1800 ft. 850 temps are below zero over all of PA during the duration of all this (mainly -2 to -4ºC). Basically with all this in mind, I think accums will mainly reside at 2k feet and above. Headline worthy snow could fall in higher Cambria and Somerset areas but whether it’s widespread enough to warrant the actual headline is debatable. The best potential for more significant totals could be at an elevation above about 3k feet, though maybe down to 2,500’ish. That’ll be a key, as there’s only a couple places in the Laurels that top 3k feet. There are ridge lines that go into western MD and WV that are 2500’-2800’ or so in spots. Modeled accumulations really explode in WV because their ridge tops are much higher than that. Whatever happens, it’s certainly a cold, unsettled pattern especially the first half of the upcoming week to open up May of all months.

Starting to see the best rain rates of the event finally (moderate) after it being mainly a light event most of the morning as the initial heavy rain bands went up east of here. Radar looks pretty solid and the frontal passage later on likely will mean totals will have a chance to catch up some. 0.45” total for today, and 1.19” total since Friday morning.

Lol I can’t believe I’m going to be that guy, but the highly anomalous deep upper level low that will be anchored over the Lakes/NE during the first half of next week means business. Classic case of where was this pattern three months ago? Usual snowmap and springtime caveats apply. I used Kuchera here, which applied notably below 10:1 ratios. The 10:1 map had widespread 6” or so in Cambria/Somerset. Tuesday into Wed seems to be the primary period for this potential. 850 and 700mb temps are very cold (down to -5ºC @850mb and -10 to -12 @700mb). 925s are marginal, and suggest flake potential remains higher in the Laurels/NW mountains and not much anywhere else. Good chance of seeing some kind of accums above 2k feet or so. Could definitely see some grapuel showers anywhere else in central PA given the very cold temps aloft.

Magnolia update, yep they still bloomed haha. 85.5°F was the high today here.

Mow #1 is gonna be this week for me. I’m hoping my magnolia flower buds still bloom after two 28ºF nights over the weekend and 30ºF last night.

51ºF currently, a full 30 degrees colder than yesterday around this time. Find the FROPA

Half decent line of thunderstorms just came through to cap off what has been a straight up summer like day. Definitely organized and came through pretty quick. 81ºF was my high temp today.

Yea I was okay in my immediate neighborhood. Main issues seemed to come from the initial arrival of that line and damage here was more sporadic like a typical severe outbreak. The two most significant wind damage incidents noted in and around town was a portion of a bowling alley’s roof blew off and took out lines and hit a house across the street and also a metal roof getting peeled off off another warehouse type building north of Altoona in Bellwood. https://www.altoonamirror.com/news/local-news/2023/04/wind-causes-modest-damage/ The large scale wind event aspect of that storm system was definitely not all that noteworthy here, the highest gust i registered on my weather station was only 34mph.

Winds are starting to ramp up here, the approaching line of storms is definitely going to be interesting. Pretty impressive satellite image, it’s overlayed with wind gusts, lightning, and pressure change. Red contours are pressure rises (mb/hr) and blue is pressure falls

Front arrived a little after 8 with a 39mph wind gust and a rapid drop in temps from the mid 40s to about 34-35ºF. Did have a changeover in the last half hour and the remaining precip around is currently snow.

I missed this convo yesterday, but most certainly would have been a hail situation looking at the mesoanalysis stuff from yesterday afternoon. Freezing level was well above 850mb closer to 700mb. Pretty steep low and mid-level lapses during max heating but minimal CAPE would have limited storm top height and updraft strength. Result is the potential was there for only small hailstone formation and also that the storm updraft wouldn’t have carried them very high into much colder temps aloft. Rapid freezing and also layering from being caught in a stronger storm updraft can give the hail the cloudier appearance. Hail is clear when the ice freezes slower, which was likely the case with the limited convective potential and cloud top height yesterday.

Just had what might’ve been a better thunderstorm than anything I saw last year lol. Really vivid lightning/thunder for March, pea sized hail, gusty wind, and 0.36” in 20 min with a max rate of 1.6”/hr. Rain spouts caved haha. 0.94” of rain on the day so far.

There was even a tornado that touched down and did damage in the Los Angeles suburb of Monebello late Wednesday morning, which LA NWS recently confirmed was an EF-1.

0z GFS just ripped about the whole subforum with 10”+ from that 3/29 thing. It’s definitely an interesting looking period next week with the NAO, EPO, and WPO all nosing back negative favoring below average temps most of next week and this weekend system ushering in the colder regime kind of setting the deck for that following system to possibly track favorably.

Still 23°F here with a pretty brutal wind. 17°F was the low this morning.

After perusing the guidance today I decided on a blend of the ensembles lol. So close.

CTP was considering issuing fire weather products this afternoon with the winds and low RH meeting criteria, but decided not to since Forestry determined fine fuels still had moisture that was above criteria threshold, that and there’s no trees or fine fuels on @canderson’s street left to burn since they all blew away lol. Similar setup tomorrow with a bit less wind that might not actually meet the criteria. Laurel’s still have or have had snow on the ground the last couple days, so can’t see that being much of an issue there. CTP notes SC PA will have lowest RH values via downsloping tomorrow. Something to consider if one wants to burn tomorrow I suppose. It is getting to that time of the year that there’s usually a heightened brush fire risk, especially since it’s been fairly dry and no snowpack in the Sus Valley and a lot of the central south of 80. CTP

I was considering that potential event next week as the last good chance of something bigger before we’re at a point where it becomes much harder to line something up, though we’re likely to be dealing with periods of notable below average temps the rest of the month into early April. As it looks now, I think yesterday’s nor’easter probably will be the signature event of the 22-23 winter in the Northeastern US. Something finally took advantage of those flaming hot above average SSTs in the NW Atlantic we’ve had all winter and there were several 30-40”+ amounts to show for it in the higher/more interior parts of NWS Albany and Boston’s CWAs. On that same note, I feel that same thing probably contributed to the lower elevations of southern New England doing their best LSV impression with big snow map totals and not much on the ground to show for it.