MAG5035

Meanwhile deep in Louisiana bayou country… I also saw some temps as low as 10 in the Florida Panhandle and 15 all the way down in Gulf Shores, AL

-6.5ºF/-11ºF here so far this morning. I bottomed out yesterday during the 7am hour so possibly some time to get near -10ºF given the dewpoint. Very impressive either way. On Mesowest it looked like that Hollsopple station between Johnstown and Somerset is below -20 again, and THV was down as far as -17ºF

I know at least one person in here that would get cat 1 winds from that haha.

Some of their 511 cameras look like what you’d see in Buffalo. Good thing the Super Bowl isn’t this week haha.

We really haven’t had all the pieces in place at one time to wind up any kind of a big storm all winter despite us achieving deep winter status. Our two signature events this month were a weakening southern stream wave attacking a confluent pattern and this past event being a fairly vigorous wave along an arctic front. It has continued to be a dry pattern. I’ve got about 10” for the month, with zero rain. So take into account these have all been higher ratio snowfalls I’d be lucky to have 0.75” of liquid equivalent for the month so far. The only real precip opportunity I see right now is that Sunday/Monday timeframe where mainly the GFS has been playing around with some kind of an overrrunning type system. Guidance raises heights in the SE in that timeframe into a really flat SE ridge, though I would hardly call it such. It does moderate temps back to about seasonal and would set the boundary for systems to run through here and not say, the Gulf Coast. Whether there’s anything depends on if any energy gets ejected out of the SW, and both GFS/Euro seem mostly content to keep that closed off low there most of next week. Not real keen on anything else otherwise. There looks like some reinforcing cold next week at times centered on New England (still keeping us seasonal or below), but we’re on the backside of the mean trough. Highly progressive northern branch that is too far NE for clippers here with the sprawling western ridge and +NAO/AO regime downstream. Not much opportunity for phasing if anything does eject out of the SW. Beyond that I really haven’t seen a lot for me to jump on the complete pattern reversal bandwagon yet. Certainly it looks like a period of above average heights/temps is coming likely near or during the first week of February. But the longevity of that kind of a pattern change is going to depend on some things. Some MJO forecasts completely avoid 4-5-6 or at least phase 5 and others really lower the magnitude eventually into the null phase. If we don’t go full bore and stall out in the those phases, I don’t expect the influence to be such that we have a heat wave and gigantic eastern ridge for any extended amount of time. It will be milder though, regular teleconnections other than the WPO are not particularly great looking. But what we do have that we didn’t last year is much colder air in Canada. That could help press the boundary in a more borderline setup. Certainly a more active storm track would be beneficial snow or not. Still much to resolve out that far.

Well we ended up getting the clear, calm night last night I expected tonight and low temps definitely overachieved, showing what rad cooling and a fresh snowpack can do. My low temp here was -4.5ºF. Some low temps around here I saw from the Mesowest network Hollsopple (between Johnstown and Somerset): -22ºF Phillipsburg: -16ºF Claysburg: -15ºF Bedford County Airport (KHMZ): -15ºF I expect similar or perhaps colder numbers tonight, though perhaps more towards the western stations. Weak shortwave passage earlier this evening might make late clearing in the Sus Valley and hold temps up a few degrees compared to last night. But we’ll see.

Currently 12°F/1°F here. Ended up with a fluffy 1.1” of additional snow last night to bring the overall total to 4.1”.

You’ll definitely feel them haha. Tomorrow night will be cold enough but I’m still eyeing Tuesday night as the night the bottom might drop out. The latest European for example has Clearfield at -17ºF 7am Wed morning and has been putting out numbers like that persistently as the coldest model also having most of the western half of PA -15ºF or colder. The reason I think low temps may actually fall to those levels in some non urban areas is because overnight Tues into Wed morning we have a 1040mb high moving into western PA, essentially the “Canadian” High if you will for the insanity about to ensue along the Gulf Coast with the next wave. So that coupled with what is now a fairly expansive snowpack in PA figures to be a good radiational cooling setup and we have a frigid airmass overhead that is in the -20s ºC at 925 and 850mb. Honestly would not be surprised to see a rural station between here and Pittsburgh hit -20ºF if we get the full rad cooling. Probably don’t see temps like that in eastern PA and the Sus Valley but with that new snowpack in place there definitely could be some below zero low temps in the usual cold spots.

I did reach my 3” target, which is where I’m at currently. Been in the lighter snows the last couple hours. We missed the business end of that heavy 700mb forced band but we got into it for a little while. All fluff, temps have been about 22-23ºF for most of the event.

Already snowing here with a fresh coating and caved roads. Temps fell back rapidly the last several hours from still 33°F at 2am to 24°F right now. Would like to at least get to 3” with this one. I have yet to even verify an advisory level snowfall this winter.

Models have generally seemed to finally hone in overall on the extent and position of the main precip shield. RGEM/HRRR remains the most robust QPF wise. Blending with the other middle of the road stuff I think most of the Sus Valley will verify the warning on the low end, with 5” amounts being common. I think some 6-8” could be had but I think they’ll be focused in some kind of a narrow swath reliant on a band or two setting up. Back in central I think advisory placement and amounts (2-4”) look good. That area coincides more with 700mb being within the DGZ (temps 12ªC falling to around -15ªC at 700mb during best precip). So if a band of snow (and good 700mb lift) gets setup early in the central counties.. they would likely see good ratios. Maybe not 30:1 but 18-20:1 type ratios. I think that’s the path to overachieving for places like State College/Altoona/Clearfield. So my overall accum breakdown is this: 4-6” for the Sus Valley (H-burg/York/Lancaster) 4-6” for the Laurels (not including post event additional LES/upslope) 2-4” Altoona/State College/Lewistown/Williamsport 3-5” Bedford/Fulton/Franklin Around 2” in and around Clearfield and T-2” above I-80 (less as you go northwest).

4.6” (.37)

Safe to say the Canadian is pretty similar to the RGEM. And in terms of the Lower Sus Valley Kuchera is running near 10:1 with accums.

I’m nearing about 1.5” from the snow today. Temps have rebounded to 26ºF after starting today at 13ºF. Some historical perspective on the upcoming cold snap next week from CTP:

Here’s the QPF map for it, haha. There’s no snow maps for it available.. least on WB. Def still on a continued wetter trend vs the last couple runs in PA.