BooneWX

I’m going to track this storm because it’s weather but my gut and initial thought is that most of the foothills will see zero snow from this setup. It’s a sleet - sleet and Zr to Zr situation unfortunately. I’m not buying any snow south of middle VA. There’s cold air around that could change this but we don’t know how to do phased storms unless it’s something the pine swamps in ENC can benefit from.

Yep. I’m rooting for a phased bomb with negative tilt to be reached just east of the Mississippi. Our 50/50 low keeps trending east on guidance which is great for the mid-Atlantic and horrible for us. We need that to stop soon. It lets heights rise way too much and gives the SER breathing room. It’s a fine balance though. But maybe I’m wrong and we just let it trend a hair more east and you get an earlier boom possibly. As always, we’re threading the needle and needing 1,000 things to go right.

Wild. That track in itself should’ve rendered all areas along and west of I-77 with a foot of snow and almost no mixing.

Man it’s been Virginia’s year. They’re on a Tennessee style run right now.

Yes + triad Mets who are usually quiet in the lead up

What has my attention is extremely conservative mets discussing it

What a beaut! People got so bored being stranded on I-77 and Hwy 52 that they got out of their cars and just made snowmen and had a good time.

Lived in Mount Airy at the time. Woke up with 9 ish inches after day 1 and proceeded to double it in a quarter of the time. Still probably my favorite event of all time.

I said this last event and it aged like sour milk but the surface evolution and upper air pattern gives me Feb 2014 vibes. That storm had a multiple wave component to it with a trailing upper low that hammered nw nc.

Every model shows a winter storm in some fashion for the upper SE. That’s remarkable agreement at this stage.

I refuse to even look at the CMC or its suite after this past month. It’s not only been wrong, it’s been club 384 wrong at medium/short range too.

Whether it amps too much and becomes rain or not, idk, but that southern jet screams major storm as opposed to anything weak and suppressed. Gut says classic I85N event but I could still see this trending to Kentucky/Middle VA north.

The only wives tale or old school logic I 100% believe in, is to watch the animals. If we get to Sunday-Tuesday and they start acting odd, usually something is coming. Before the sleet fest in mid Jan, the deer, geese, crows and herons were working overtime to eat. Saw way more wildlife activity than normal in the 3 days leading up.

The EPS imo is the one piece I want in my pocket at this range

Is the atmosphere capable of normal rain anymore? I’m talking like a half inch in a day with a frontal passage or quick moving system. It’d be neat to not get an atmospheric river every time.

Spent the day in Ashe and Watauga counties. Widespread .5” totals and many areas along the escarpment are still well below freezing at this hour. It may have been a lucky break for many, but not the northern mountains.

MAKE FEBRUARY GREAT AGAIN! A stall in 8?! Never thought I’d see the day. .

Kinda intrigued to watch what happens today. I keep thinking the DP can’t tick lower with precip falling but it does. GSP talked about the cold air advection being a bit stronger this afternoon than initially thought, so we’ll see if that feed keeps coming. Rn, I have a light NE breeze.

Shocked no one posted this yet .

Yes you’re probably out of time in Georgia but you don’t have to remind the rest of the thread about that every other post.

The GEFS and EPS are almost identical at this range. The specifics will need to be worked out but yea this pattern has serious legs to it. I’d like to see that 50/50 low slightly further west but that’s nitpicking a beautiful setup. Look at that block to the north! There’s plenty of cold in Canada and it should get displaced. The next few days while we build boats, southern Canada and New England will be building a glacier. We’ve been on a trend this year of having highs to the north but they’re either too weak or not in an optimal position. If we can build that snowpack above us, I think we could make more of these 1030-1035mb HPs benefit us. I don’t think this pattern favors a cutter, it favors a big EC storm. Someone, maybe us, maybe not, is about to get possibly the storm of the year. With as cold as this winter has been, it’s only right that it happens. .

The 500 mb pattern is a thing of beauty during that stretch.

Almost everyone is blissfully unaware of this potentially coming

18z NAM is apocalyptic

I hope the NAM is out to lunch because it’s painting apocalyptic frz rn totals in the mountains of NC and VA. For a large chunk of the event it has temps running between 28-30 in those areas.