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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. BooneWX
    18z Euro….cold press working even more
  2. BooneWX
    Weak and flat is certainly on the table but I’d lean towards the Euro camp because of the jet.
  3. BooneWX
    The models seem to be catching on to the cold press. Solid day of trends.
  4. BooneWX
    Baby steps
  5. BooneWX
    I’ll take it a step further: North of 85 = eating North of 40 = thanksgiving dinner with dessert
  6. BooneWX
    Just watch the consistency going forward. I’ve always said that big dogs for western NC don’t pop up or oscillate very much. They bark early and bark louder.
  7. BooneWX
    Fwiw, Eric Webb is in the camp that it won’t have much room to come NW like many storms we’re so accustomed to. He believes the block is keeping this thing pressed and we may be starting to see models correct to that solution.
  8. BooneWX
    Just saw the EURO, I need a cigarette
  9. BooneWX
    I expect when we get in the short range, cad will trend stronger as always.
  10. BooneWX
    I’m all for a good ol fashioned 3-4” of snow with 2 inches of sleet for sledding. Just hope we can keep the ZR out.
  11. BooneWX
    All fun and games until it shows a 5°C warm nose above us, violently charging its way to Richmond.
  12. BooneWX
    I’m optimistic that this predominantly snow area could expand a bit as models catch onto CAD. I think we already started to see that last night.
  13. BooneWX
    Exhausting stretch of weather. Just hanging in there for now, because I know if it follows our normal pattern, we won’t see rain for about 6 weeks here soon.
  14. BooneWX
    Some brutal cutoffs showing up in our backyards @WXNewton @calculus1. like 2 inches for us and a foot for Lenoir
  15. BooneWX
    Also, something that smells fishy to me that I’ve seen all day. You could technically have freezing rain simultaneously in Fayetteville and Hickory, I guess, but I can’t drum up a single scenario in the past where that has happened. It’s either unprecedented or these models are all out to lunch.
  16. BooneWX
    My main takeaway from the 18z suite is that we need better high placement. Our parent high over the Dakotas isn’t going to do much for us. Either it builds into a less consolidated high or it progresses eastward faster, but if I took away the simulated radar and purely looked at the track + HP location, I’d tell you it’s probably raining almost to DC.
  17. BooneWX
    *Every storm, every year*
  18. BooneWX
    I don’t have a good screenshot because it was mid-Atlantic focused but man. The EPS had some absolute haymakers for western NC.
  19. BooneWX
    One piece of guidance hasn’t flinched with the pieces of energy in several runs: the EPS. The one you want in your back pocket.
  20. BooneWX
    Looking at the HP placement on the Euro, man it’s close. We can historically make a strong HP over Iowa work, at least in the CAD region but any nudge east would do us some huge favors. You can see it scooting east a bit just in time to save the day but timing timing timing.
  21. BooneWX
    EPS holds serve and is a major storm for I-85 north.
  22. BooneWX
    Euro AI had an interesting 6z evolution. More of a slider type of system but idk given the jet if I buy that. It’s an outlier at this point but something to monitor.
  23. BooneWX
    Icon has been too warm with CAD all winter and the CMC is too cold. Split the difference and it’s a nasty ice event between I-85 and middle VA.
  24. BooneWX
    I’ll hope for the latter and I do agree that CAD will come in stronger than modeled on globals. Would love a good front end thump of snow but ice is the likely setup when you’re scooting that 50/50 low so far east. Still time for an earlier phase and honestly some models are teetering close to that.
  25. BooneWX
    My gut says this setup will be an abnormal Miller A with more mixing issues than usual thanks to a late phase. Plenty of time to change but if I had to bet money atm, I’d say ice storm north of I-85 and no snow south of middle VA. Some folks will get hammered with sleet if you’re into that kind of thing.
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