BooneWX

For the love of god please tell me the cycle ends at some point.

35 imby with dense cloud cover and that classic winter thickness in the air. It feels like snow is coming. What a shame we couldn’t get a high pressure system to our north for this storm!

Shorts at Christmas. A tradition unlike any other!

We had a very strong storm around 3 am in eastern Burke - it was quite the light show. I'd say it'll snow within the next 10 days, but that's not looking so likely now. On to January!

Thank you!

Can anyone share a link or point me in the direction to find those outputs from the ensembles? I used to have it bookmarked.

35 here in Burke...can still see stars. Definitely colder than I expected at this hour.

I think at this point it's just important to look at the pieces. We've swung widely from a major storm to rain in just a few runs, which is expected at this range. What's been key is that the models continue to hint at a storm and cold air (to some degree) being available. More than a week out, I'm not sure what else we can be asking for. Either way, this is better than a torch!

Recently moved down the Mtn to Hickory and now living vicariously through each of you in this thread. Good luck everybody. I’ve never been more jealous and I’ll miss taking in the scenes this winter. Post plenty of pictures.

Lots of good options. Old Fort, Marion, Black Mtn (highly recommend). Of course, in my opinion, I consider those foothill areas. So take that as you will. Although it'll certainly be snowier than Raleigh - you'll just miss out on NWFS events. Someone else might could advise better on Mars Hill, Weaverville, Marshall etc. Not sure what the elevation in those areas brings. As someone who now lives in the foothills again, I miss the NWFS events. But it still pays off to be in the foothills during the big events coming from the Gulf.

Grew up in Mount Airy, moved to Boone and now live in Caldwell County. Can’t go wrong man! Hang in there tonight, that’s nasty weather moving in.

Looks like Dorian is wrapping up its ERC. Will it strengthen a little? We shall see. Colder cloud tops are expanding around its center again.

Worst case scenario for the OBX. It would be the type of storm to completely alter the geography of the OBX - especially Hatteras.

All hail the FV3

I’ll take a stab at this one. Growing up in Mount Airy, I always had the same question, because you’d frequently see the same thing modeled for that area. I believe (and someone with a legit background feel free to correct me), the models always try to predict lee side sinking. I’ve found that in these particular systems, coming up from the south, it rarely happens. Usually I just ignore the hole’s.

I work in Lenoir and the winds have increased dramatically. Trees laying sideways on a few of these gusts.

Just me, or does thing seem to be coming slightly farther west than predicted? The turn doesn't seem to be as prominent as forecasted.

Last couple of frames on radar almost seemed as if she was starting to move wnw a bit. Just my eyes, or anyone else notice it? Might just be a wobble.

West side looks like its getting eroded by dry air.

I think the weakening is temporary. IR looks significantly better than the previous 8 hrs. Might not become a cat 4 again, but no reason to believe it can’t be a major hurricane at landfall.

For days I've felt like this storm is going to take an abnormal path. I think we are all trying to apply way too much of the "it usually happens like this" logic for a storm that has been anything but logical to this point.

Regardless of how people feel about him, I just watched Joe Bastardi's daily update, and he's with the Euro camp of having a landfall between Myrtle and Wilmington with it tracking towards the mountains. He's been spot on so far and was spot on with Gordon, so I'm not sure what to think.

Absolute nightmare scenario for western N.C. I love weather but there’s zero part of me that wants to lose power for weeks and be in a Houston type of situation with flooding.

Even then, it probably stays relatively close to the border and rakes all of NC with the worst side of the storm. A lot of lose-lose scenarios taking shape and it's a bit alarming.

I get a feeling that this storm is going to track towards an eventual landfall in SC and push inland. I don’t think the models are quite nailing down just how strong the high may be.