BooneWX

Sorry y’all. I made a lot of “never will I ask for ____” again prayers in exchange for the Dec 2018 storm. My bad.

After all of the windshield wiping we’ve seen this year, I wouldn’t expect less!

Also a reminder that the HRRR nailed that last synoptic event in Jan.

The tough pill to swallow for the NAM is that it’s typically bias in its cold solutions.

I still think this is going to be a significant impact for the mountains. For me personally, flakes will be more than anything I’ve seen in 12 months, so I can live with the output I’m seeing.

My theory: Warmer oceans > more energy > stronger storms tending to go poleward faster.

At this point, I think I’m good with that. I had my evening jog in shorts and a t-shirt last night and it reminded me how taxing the early darkness and the endless rainy days have been. Give me 9 pm sunsets, mid 70s and towering thunderclouds.

I’m going to hang on until tomorrow before I let the fat lady go warm up her voice but the trends certainly aren’t positive atm. Even with an ULL, it’s tough to watch us work with only marginal cold air all the way into lower Canada. Truly an anomalous pattern we’ve had this whole winter. The things I’d do for a 1040 in the Ohio valley right now!

It’d be neat to have cold air on this side of continent, wouldn’t it?

As a fellow foothiller I think we have a good shot but there’s no denying the high risk for downsloping to completely ruin the event.

Very good 12z GFS run

This is going to be a good run it appears. Could always be better but it keeps it on the table.

March 2009 keeps getting thrown around and it may be a good analog indeed. My gut says obviously higher elevations will do well but somewhere in the western piedmont, a death band forms and dumps with temps in the mid 30s. There will be a clear screw zone on either side of that band.

I know man. Trust me, I’m not wishing that result on anyone in the Lee. You and I both know that it’s a delicate balance though. ULLs can work in the foothills but you can’t be too far away from the best lift to overcome the sinking air and more times than not, these setups struggle to work out.

I’ve heard March 2009 be thrown around quite a bit and I actually think that’s a pretty good analog and possibly an evolution we can see. That storm had severe downsloping in the Lee but picked up totals rapidly west and east. Just look at that gradient from just west of Morganton to Hickory! anyways. The gut tells me there will be two winners: obviously the higher elevations but still someone in the eastern foothills/western piedmont is going to get under a death band of sorts and score with temps in the mid 30s. Good luck to all forecasters trying to pinpoint that spot though!

One not so fun trend I’m seeing for the foothills is the clear downsloping signal on the globals. A tale older than time. These setups are notoriously difficult to pull off in the immediate Lee.

As always: looking forward to your video update!

Pretty much the exact same convective nature. There’s a reason they call upper level lows a “forecasters woe.” Some will be happy, most will be pissed.

This whole setup is going to be extremely rate dependent. I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains will experience a lot of light snow. It’ll either be snowing cats and dogs or you’ll be getting drizzle and light rain. The joys of an ULL right? Someone under a death band and someone else getting rain a few miles away.

I could easily see an evolution where unless you’re above 3k ft, it’s extremely rate dependent. Which would be fitting, because the joys of an ULL also mean someone doesn’t get under a convective band and has to experience the agony.

Would’ve loved to have seen the NAM go out about 6 more hours because she was preparing to unload.

It’s late in the range but the NAM looked primed to go boom.

GFS paste bomb!

LAWWWWWWD

Nothing like seeing the Hot sign on