BooneWX

Can confirm on this side of the apps - brutal trends! Just been a tough few years for us in the Lee. It’s been since Dec 2018 that this area has had a classic Miller A thumping. After Helene, I was hoping Mother Nature would reward the area with a good treat this winter but I have to remind myself that’s not how weather works.

As @wncsnowput it, atmospheric memory seems to be a thing.

Problem is - over the past few days, we’ve leaned back into some of our bad habits from this winter. Northern stream dominated energy instead of the juicy southern stream predictions yesterday and prior. It’s a completely different storm in that regard and that cold press is stronger and stronger with each model run. There’s certainly a benefit to the latter - you get less WAA, but you also play a dangerous game of watching it vanish. I remember the gulf coast storm originally being a lower Tennessee valley event.

Pretty far. There’s nothing in the upper levels preventing this from going OTS completely

If only! Would be nice to score in one of the only 2 ways it’s humanly possible to score here (miller a or b). That’s why I always chuckle at the “foothills are climo favored.” Climo favored my ass! Too far east for flow snow, shadowed for everything else. 2 ways to get snow and two ways only here.

Gut says this isn’t an event for anyone west of 95 but we’ll see. NW trend is something to watch for but we’ve SE trended this whole winter up to go time with the exception of a few storms.

A hell of a year for the I-95 corridor in the central eastern/northeastern part of the state. Probably the best winter in decades if this one pans out.

That’s not a win, that’s the ceiling. Win would be flurries the way this is going.

Euro with the dagger

I hope it wasn’t taken that way. There’s some great posters down that way that I’d be happy for. I took issue with the jab @wncsnow when they’ve trolled this entire pattern for weeks. Now that it might be going their way, they want everyone to quit talking about anything other than RDU.

One thing I’m hoping for with the LP track is that meso models show the upslope enchantment were used to seeing with type of system.

I’m probably going to get blasted in the main thread for that, but nothing is more ironic than RDU posters who have trolled the mid range disco for weeks with spring posts telling everyone to not generalize this storm

This is rich coming from a “winter cancel” guy that’s been part of negatively flooding the mid range discussion with despair for weeks.

Just started here. Went from dead calm to howling in 30 min.

This went from a HECS to a nothing burger real quick

And you will during the next rain as well. We only know how to get flooding. Now, when cold air is involved, good luck! Dry as the Sahara.

We’ve firmly entered the territory in the main thread where some of us want a memorable storm and others are willing to sacrifice a lamb for a weak solution that nets everyone a dusting-half an inch.

All folks west of I-95 are dangerously teetering towards looking at pictures of an OBX snow. It isn’t just western NC. We’ve got almost 3 full days for this to continue moving in the direction it currently is.

Get me to spring

Track consistency these past few runs among all models has been remarkable

I almost let tomorrow get off my radar. 50 mph gusts and soils this saturated…no bueno.

That temp gradient leads me to believe this will be more amped in the end

Roxboro has to eat - always does

Right where we want it. 18z eps went a little south and east with the heaviest precip. I don’t want the bullseye on the globals until late tomorrow or Monday. I don’t think we’ll see a NW per say, but I think it’ll adjust 50-100 miles NW with time.

This Euro run gets many more involved in snow