BooneWX

This one actually has legs imo. Southern slider, high in a decent position and the energy is digging more each run. For what it’s worth, this is the timeframe @griteaterloves.

Things we need to see in the pattern: - a cold Alaska is not usually favorable for us. We need to continue trending towards a ridge popping there. - Pacific needs to be more cooperative in general (go figure). More jet ext but not too much. We’ve got to inject some better energy and force a sharper trough in the east. The northern stream parade wouldn’t be so bad if the shortwaves weren’t stopping in the Ohio valley and moving east. You aren’t getting a useful phase for our neck of the woods like that. - PV? Good or bad…? Idk. I think most would argue good but I don’t know if I want to see a complete split. For one, there’s no guarantee that cold spills on this side of the globe and 2, more times than not, it’s a suppression signal if it does. - I agree with @wncsnow a relaxation and reload mid month is probably coming. I’ll admit that it’s more of a hunch for me than a given. The trend all summer and fall has been for the LR guidance to raise a false ridge and dump the cold out west, only to correct down to hour 0. I think there’s a reasonable chance with the MJO progression, the PV, and a potentially better looking Pacific that we may have wall to wall cold in Dec. Regardless, if it wants, I think it’s brief - maybe 4/5 days max and certainly no torch. - We all should be rooting to score now - New Years if we indeed get the PV split with phase 8. Any repeating of that pattern (TBD) is going to give you highs in the 30s and bone dry air in Jan/Feb. Just my 2 cents. .

Nam has the moisture….also has the HP scooting out too quickly

If we could get Friday to unfold how the Euro envisions it, the nostalgia would be high. Classic 2-3” with a glaze on top. It was systems like that which made fond memories growing up, not just the whoppers.

Euro does it again for 18z!

Let’s see if we can wish one of these into existence for Friday @wncsnow .

A little strung out on the Euro and flat but objectively hilarious to see it show snow just as other models fall off the wagon.

Bleh. Northern stream doing northern stream things.

It’ll be interesting to see if we continue to trend stronger overnight on the CAD. Rn I’d say this event favors snow in VA and an ice storm with a possible front end thump for those along and north of I-85 in NC.

The 18z Euro is starting to sniff out the CAD for Friday. Nice drop in temps from 12z.

Yea nobody leave or drop off. The wave, gnawing and gnashing of teeth this time of year is kinda the most fun part of the season. It’s the chase of the emotional highs and lows tracking winter weather that keeps us coming back.

You’re understandably frustrated and I get it. You and I among many, both live in an area that should get multiple opportunities per year and we are lucky to get 1 shot every 3/4 seasons of late. I just think we’ve all got to take a breath. The models were showing near record temps for the exact period we’re talking about just a week ago, and now we’ve got fantasy storms. I’m not in any way discounting the EPS or the Euro Op - you’re 100% correct: nothing concrete is shown but an emerging -NAO, -AO, cold on our side of hemisphere and an active southern jet is all we can ask for at the moment. The way the models have performed, I don’t think we can definitively say yes/no to a storm any time soon. The trend is our friend right now, so I’ll take it.

I’ll be the first to say I need assistance via @GaWxto help with some case studies but I’d argue a big reason we’ve lacked winter storms in recent years comes down to the lack of a -NAO, which fortunately, the models are starting to catch up and show. We’ve lacked that for multiple seasons to help keep the cold bottled up on the east coast. Friday is prime example of how snowpack can help. Most of the models have a 1030ish HP to our north. That is never going to cut it unless the source region for our cold isn’t modifying. That snowpack is going to be a tremendous help in making sure that it doesn’t. It basically saves us from being dependent on a 1035+ in a perfect position to advect cold, dry air.

12z Icon: icy mess

I’m not going to post clowns for the GFS because of how useless it’s been of late, but 12Z is a bit colder. Verbatim it’s a major mess of a storm north of I-85. 3-5” of snow for many, followed by a 1/4-1/2” of ice (Friday into Saturday).

Aside, does anyone know where I can access the Google DeepMind model? It crushed it this summer and I’d really like to see how it performs this winter.

I may crash out if Dec doesn’t produce lol .

Step down process is doing what it does…upper Midwest and Northeast first, then Kentucky, WV and parts of the mid Atlantic on Tuesday…Friday? Remains to be seen but could be us, or could be close with no cigar. Either way, it’s usually the third storm in the pattern change that initiates our shots.

Goes to show how helpful a glacier to the north can be. A 1029 high just isn’t going to cut it 90% of the time but it would be advecting some seriously refrigerated air and incredibly low dew points. End of the week definitely bares watching, the GFS isn’t on an island with this idea, there’s been flashes from other model data. Buckle up.

22.1

My suspicion is that we’re about to see a flurry of activity on the models as we move into Dec. Y’all make sure you’re stocked up on coffee, those 0Z runs trickle in late

I’d cash out. It could be 105 every day through March after that. Dec 2018 all over again.

Tuesday morning could be interesting for the escarpment and immediate lee.

You may do it, sure enough. Thinking I might bottom out around 24-25.

One thing to watch are the consistent pulses of southern stream energy popping up in the long range. That’s been another fly in the ointment the past few years. Last year was a parade of northern stream pieces of energy squashing the southern stream. That’s fine for a novelty event but if you want a big dog, we need less of that this winter.