I can’t directly speak to the reasoning behind the NHC being on the western side of guidance but if I had to take a stab at it, we have a complex interaction with the upper level low over the Ozarks. I think they may be banking on Helene feeling that tug to the west a bit more than the models indicate. Also important to note that the models are initializing Helene as a stronger cane than it currently is. A stronger system will resist the tug from the ULL and try to go more poleward. Since the models seem to be overdoing intensity at the moment, they’re probably going to be spot on with the track being further west than guidance.