I’ll really be curious to see what modeling looks like come Saturday. That precip shield looked so weird on the model and you’ve got to wonder if they’re struggling with some sort of feedback issue.
And it’s also likely this past storm and the next one are really throwing a kink into the models. There’s been so much flip flopping the past few weeks, idk if anything past 72-96 hrs can be taken seriously.
Based on the pattern, I think that 20th timeframe is going to bare the most watching. The 16th still could surprise us. If we don’t score off of that potential, we’re on to February.
Regardless of whether or not the winds with the main part of the system materialize, I’m concerned about tonight when they pick up from the frontal passage. It truly won’t take much to topple trees after this deluge. 30-40 mph will be more than adequate.
I’m downstream on lake hickory and I’ve already seen some dangerous currents and big debris. The lake was lowered a bit this week but it’ll be ripping over the dam soon if it’s not already.
Seems like there would be a lot of moisture available upstream for the event. Fwiw, the short range models are rather convective looking later tonight and even have some snow showers breaking containment into the foothills.