BooneWX

If the coc gets a close shave with the Yucatán but doesn’t make landfall, we could also be looking at friction with the coast tightening up the primitive core.

Respectfully, every wobble right now could have major impacts downstream.

Quite the wobble north on the last several frames. This could have major impacts downstream. Sheer is nearly gone, outflow is starting to establish a nice moist envelope ahead of it. If it can avoid landfall in the Yucatán…. Bombs away. I’m actually wondering if a close shave with the Yucatán could be a worse case scenario. Friction with the coast could tighten up any primitive core quickly. That scenario would also lend credit to the models projecting landfall just north of Cedar Key - which increases the odds of putting the remnant core directly over western NC and the Upstate.

It looks like it’s moving due north quickly at the moment. Worth monitoring.

We went from dry to wet as a region at exactly the wrong time.

Also, coc was moving sw the last few hours, it now appears to be on a nnw heading. Convection now firing downshear as well.

Thanks yall. Goes to show how many times I’ve launched a thread

I was going to change the name of the thread but I’m not seeing the option. Someone educate me. Is that a mod only thing?

It appears in the most recent 3-4 frames, the coc has started a nnw motion. Whether that’s a wobble or an actual trend is too early to tell.

Looking more closely at the GFS, it shows the system struggling to stack vertically with the mid level and llc displaced until it’s well into the Gulf. Taking that with a grain of salt considering the sw sheer its feeling is abating quickly.

Update: Very little difference. GFS is closer to the 00Z run but we still get zero metered by a reasonably strong tropical storm.

Much weaker GFS run incoming after it interacts heavily with the Yucatán. We’ll see if it has any downstream impacts.

You hate to see rain totals that would get you excited if they were snow totals. Never good!

We’ve been so very fortunate in recent tropical setups over the past few years to have borderline drought conditions preceding the higher wind threat. Not this time.

It’s now official. Helene is born.

Rain will be the big story in the Carolinas but with ample pre-event rainfall this week, even shaving 10% off of these numbers is nerve wrecking for many

Started a thread for future Helene if discussing non-winter gulf lows is your thing too.

Starting a thread because this is going to be a very impactful event from Florida to the Carolinas and we don’t get to start enough storm threads these days anyways.

agreed. Only speed can be a saving grace at this point. Something that’s not being paid attention to is the fact we’ll have a very good Atlantic moisture connection as well. With the storm to the west and the ridge to the east, we’re going to be perfectly lined up for the fire hose.

Unfortunately it always downplays tropical systems. There’s not much inhibiting the system from what I see. Great ventilation coming and jacuzzi water ahead.

Not liking this one bit. The GFS also brings it into the heart of WNC. I spoke too soon on winds.

This is going to be a high impact event for the upstate and western NC if the track holds. Not particularly concerned about wind in the foothills but we’ll be on the dirty side of the circulation and no doubt we’re going to ring out every drop of moisture.

As a lifelong western North Carolinian, the short answer is yes. Obviously there are lots of variables but the mountains - particularly the ridges above 4k ft will experience a high wind event. The bigger threat will be the extreme rainfall/ landslide risk if the setup holds. This is never a favorable track for the southern Appalachian region.

If many of the tracks are correct, this would also be a major blow to leaf season.