BooneWX

Unfortunate to see it’s the HRRR verifying. Those totals were apocalyptic.

Well. 21/16, wet bulb of 19…. The sleet/Zr mix continues and I can officially say I have a glaze. Plants coated and the concrete has become a skating rink.

Well. 21/16, wet bulb of 19…. The sleet/Zr mix continues and I can officially say I have a glaze. Plants coated and the concrete has become a skating rink.

Told my wife that exact same thing. She doesn’t know what the hrrr is but I said “mega deathtron ice totals.”

I might be cooked. Sleet/ZR mix

Noticing that here as well. We’re getting moderate to heavy sleet but my dew has actually ticked down.

The wedge keeps wedging. Honestly that’s it. We need to keep it chilly for a few thousand ft.

Heavy sleet. 27

Snow sleet mix. 28/12

Since we’re on the conversation of power, keep in mind there’s two distinct outage waves in an ice event: 1. The event itself as totals get heavy for obvious reasons 2. Usually, the next part comes as you think you’re out of the woods. When the lines start shedding weight (I.e. if we get above freezing tomorrow night or Monday), that weight gets released and it causes them to bounce and snap back to form like rubber bands. When the lines bounce and contact each other, it’ll cause an outage then as well.

I mean I have seen already making it to the ground with a 30/13 reading. It shouldn’t be making it to the ground but it is. Doesn’t make me hopeful for drier results.

Flurries 30/13

I do hope yall are right though. I’ll be the first to cheer on 40s and no precip.

I’d expect that. Idk if I’ve ever seen Asheville with bad ice. Not sure it’s even possible there with a stout cad.

32/12. Deck thickening and lowering over the past hour.

Been juggling that last sentence in my head. Most people are too illiterate to see anything other than “snow” in the forecast, so even 3” of freezing rain and the electric grid laying on the ground would be a bust to them because their iPhone guaranteed it.

32/14. Steadily falling since 10.

We’re also having quite the over performance just to our west so idk. Precip is falling well ahead of schedule. We already have snow just to my west hitting the ground.

Some of yall that are up high enough to transition to rain are going to be the most thankful group in western NC. One of the rare winter storms that we’d all be fine whiffing on.

Should be enough for a disaster anyways with strong winds

IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range.

Said the same thing when I looked at radar just now and saw precip on my doorstep. 8 hrs ahead of schedule.

As expected, the storm is ahead of schedule.

Interesting ob: The 0z HRRR has trended very strong with the CAD. The same 0z run is too warm compared to surface temps in real-time over the plains…. WOOF

How dark?