BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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The first storm is on the table but by “on the table,” it could be a table setter for something much larger with that second storm. scoring the first would be an absolute coup, but the cmc uses it to help establish a much better environment for the second storm.
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The GFS always has these little subtle hints embedded that remind you to proceed with caution: like a tropical system near Cabo at hour 216
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Second storm is another hit on the gfs
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Bingo. I’m anxious to see the 12z euro. 6z looked like it was going to be an epic run.
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Check out the thermals on the gfs. Idk if I’ve ever seen dynamic cooling that epic.
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Clear trend closer to a phase and less progressive on the gfs. As good as the clown was, it was close to producing a monster.
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GFS is a snowstorm for almost the entirety of the Carolinas on the 15th
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12z starting fine
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06z doesn’t go out far enough on the Euro but geez it looked like it was about to hammer us for the first storm.
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OOOOF. I followed that line and imagined a few shattered TV screens last night when they covered every player except Beck. I’ve been taking so many Ls lately that I’ve started not loading any more money onto my FanDuel account
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I think the thing that is peaking my interest the most are the 500mb maps. Go back and look at almost any major miller a we’ve had in the past. It looks almost identical.
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Yea I agree. The late phase scenario by the gfs is always worrisome to see, but that model also has a very progressive bias. No phase is ever a given but when you drop the energy down to the oil rigs, I like our odds compared to normal. I think the second system has some serious legs. I feel like a close shave is coming for the first….the Euro bought brought a tear to my eye lol. I haven’t seen a good WNC special on a digital snow map in a while.
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Went to bed after Ole Miss and Miami hoping I’d find some magic in here this morning. Man what a night of model runs!
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It’s been a minute since I’ve seen pinks on any clown map around here
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Sir, this is a Wendy’s
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If we waste that look around MLK Day on the euro, we suck. - Extremely tall west coast ridge - deep deep eastern trough - a little bit of ridging in west Atlantic - SER nowhere in sight - troughing east of Hawaii If you showed me the 500mb look with no context, I’d assume you’re showing me an analog for a memorable storm.
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We’re going to eventually get a weenie run for the ages here soon. So much to like from that 12z suite.
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I mean my goodness. .
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Oh boy. The Euro might be setting up for glory on the second storm.
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Euro is a close miss. I’m fine with that at this range. It has the signal and that’s all we need this far out.
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We need that full phase to capitalize but so far, our source issue for cold looks better. Some really cold, dry air lurking just to the north…The gfs would likely be fine in that regard at this range - 1032 over lower Ontario. CAD would likely trend stouter until go time. Icon is less enthused about the thermals but shows exactly what you can do if the northern stream and southern stream decide to mingle. It was very close to a solid 4-8” event for central/western NC northward. Just needed a few small tweaks.
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1/15 interest as of 12z: Icon: proper digging, phase GFS: northern stream dominant, tries a late phase Different solutions, growing noise.
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Icon opening 12z with a foothills special
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This event is very close to being a whopper for I-85 north. It’s a classic look for a major winter storm in the upper southeast. We just need a bit more help with digging and tilt. It would be really nice if our source region for cold wasn’t baking right now.
