BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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I think you’re right. Last week, my concern was that our source region really gets scoured out by mild Pacific air and the models are reflecting that. It shouldn’t take long to reload Canada if we get some cross polar flow, but yea, a lot of this will be largely dependent on trapping already marginal cold air and making the environment ripe for stout HPs.
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Yall would have to put our foothills thread on suicide watch if it played out like that lol
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Yea that run was a weather weenie’s paradise. Overall, the pattern held in the overnight guidance. It’s a step down process that gradually gets cooler over time. A -NAO really starts to show up later in the scene and bully some cold air down the east coast. That gfs fantasy run was something we really hasn’t seen in a while: deep CAD and a very dynamic shortwave digging all the way to the Gulf before a bee line north. A mauler from NC to Maine.
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And it’s digital snow not at hour 360!
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Tried to upload the GFS AI loop but alas. Either way, I like the evolution it shows. We lose our PNA a little bit for some time but cold really dumps from the lakes south. There’s several instances where the trough orientation digs sharply.
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Not gonna lie. I want a winter storm but I’m longing for summer. I know…sinful to say. Our house has had a virus at least biweekly since Oct. I miss getting outside in the evenings, I miss fishing and tbh, I miss a good peak heating thunderstorm.
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It screams overrunning potential.
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We need more help from the pacific jet. You can see on models just how retracted it gets later in runs. It’s funny that we always get too much of the pacific jet or too little but never just enough lol.
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One minute its SER, the next its cross polar flow and snowfall again for the oil rigs in the Gulf. Hoping we find some balance here soon (we won’t).
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Lots of players on the field in the long range. I like (Borat voice).
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Now that our ensembles are in, I like the look we seem to be developing. I still hope we start seeing fantasy storms soon but we’ll have quite the cold pool setting up to our north with blocking in place to deliver CAD. Now can we throw moisture into it?
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Snow in Arkansas, Tenn, Miss and Alabama? Book it. They have been on a Mountain West heater these past few years with storms.
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Cad is in full effect here as well
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We gotta start seeing some fantasy runs soon. I always feel like they’re an indicator of how good/bad the pattern may be.
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Bring us good fortune again!
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Where are we for the MJO? Still stuck in the cod?
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What a bust of a forecast today. Also, who wants to do the honors of starting a 2026 thread?
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Better west coast ridging across the board last night. That made a world of difference on the outlook for cold on the east coast. Let’s see if we can keep the positive trends going.
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Me during the great blizzard of 26 (speak it into existence) .
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One of these days I’m going to sit outside by a fire with a winter storm warning and verification on the ground. When it happens, you’ll never catch me taking it for granted again.
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I definitely agree there. We’re in some serious uncharted territory rn. We joke about the models being garbage but this is the first year I’ve seen even ensembles be largely clueless into the mid range.
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I tend to agree and suppression would be equally bad if we swing for too much cold. My only concern with Canada being the only source region is how much cold air do we scour out through the 10th and is there any room for a resupply? It’s going to be like walking on a tightrope looking at the ensembles because Canada modifies quite a bit.
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Oh boy. Now we’re starting to see Bam have cold feet.
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Shouldn’t have to go far. At some point the cold air will come with a clipper and going up 221 will be a short trek for you.
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You’re a great poster TW! Chime in more. But you’re right. The ole rug pull is common around here. I’ve been most at peace with it this year than ever before. It is what it is. It hurts to see it happen but what can we do?
