BooneWX

Be neat to have a Fab Feb. It’s been a long time.

The reality is that later this month should give us a slightly relaxed pattern, that’s our opportunity imo. We had too much of a good thing with this current setup. I myself, will be rooting for an absolute bowling ball with negative tilt. Enough with this northern stream strung out mess.

That’s one way to hedge your bets .

And if we get a signal, I’m going to overtly root for a super phased, negative tilt bomb in the main thread. Enough of this weak, northern stream crap where everyone hopes to get a few token flakes over a wide area.

Nah this is a vintage meltdown ensuing. It’s what makes the board beautiful. High highs and low lows. We’ve all been down much worse before.

I know folks hate any sort of phasing or juiced up lows but the reality is that you sort of need it desperately when you’re unloading Siberian air ahead of the energy. Yep, some are going to see waa in those scenarios but these weak, northern stream systems just aren’t it.

I don’t know how to say this without sounding like a dick or a troll, because I’m really not trying to be, but all I’ve heard for days are phrases like “go south!” “Flat and weak is our best option,” “more northern stream, less southern stream.” Well. Here we are. Weak strung out mess with a dominant northern stream and a low damn near close to Cuba. Reel her in Orlando!

Me too but I hang on to my 1% of hope I get nammed at some point in the next 24 hrs

Silver lining? - Sref plumes look interesting - Euro Ens ticked west quite a bit - NBM actually gives my backyard 3”

I’d love to know what is baked into some of these ensembles. A few hang on to the Carolina crusher idea. .

What a few months of weather it’s been! Historical tropical system in the mountains and foothills, and a historical snow coming to the beach.

I just find it so ironic how warm our oceans are and how equally difficult it is to get a juiced up phased bomb.

Faucet dripping weather is upon us

We’re moving towards consensus finally

But boy oh boy did it come close. Almost caught the bowling ball over the epac.

Honestly, color me shocked by this. Those are oddly high odds for our area. .

RDU folks complained for years about things being too amped and they very well may watch suppression kill them too.

Lol I was just thinking the same. Quickly trending towards the immediate coast or bust. Been a long time since we’ve seen a truly amped, robust system. Always chuckle when people worry about that (hasn’t been a concern for anybody in a long time.) Still intrigued by the NAM. Gonna be interesting to see if it latches onto the overrunning idea.

After digesting some of the 12z data, I think someone in this circle sees snow .

Waa overriding cold air + it’s trending less stout with the cold at the upper levels

I just keep reminding myself that all we need is .2 - .3” of liquid for this to be a big storm locally

In lieu of my takeaways, the Euro AI has been very wobbly for this storm and not nearly as consistent

Seems like the models are catching on to the WAA overriding the arctic airmass. I’d expect improvements to continue on the northwest side today and tomorrow.

Not to mention how rare of a NW trend it would take to get us involved. Right now the low tracks almost through central Fl and then over the eastern edge of the Gulf Stream. I’ve seen plenty of scenarios where RDU is in the jackpot with a storm just a little bit off of the coast and it trends just barely inland and buries us instead. Idk if I’ve ever seen one this far out translate to a western NC event. Like I said earlier. The track is fairly baked in imo. There will be a minor jog nw but not enough to get us involved alone. If we can get a full phase and generate some overrunning we’re in the game. As of right now, no guidance shows that except for a few ensembles mostly skewed to the Canadian, who’s own Op, is trending away from a phase.

Tastes the same when it’s washed down with the shine