BooneWX

This is the potential the pattern has. First low sacrificed, beautiful 50/50 low ensues and we get a strike underneath.

On the bright side, this can help our energy for the 9th-11th.

My thought: I truly think our models suck. I mean, bottom barrel garbage, useless trash 90% of the time. A product of poor funding and nobody outside of the weather community seeing the need for improvements these past several years. It won’t shock me at all if we can’t even sniff a big dog in advance on the models anymore (prob likely tbh) and it equally won’t shock me when and if we get closer to a threat that they all jump on board 72 hrs out. .

First storm is a wash other than some onset ice in CAD regions. I think we all knew it would arrive there eventually - it looked like a miller b from the start. Tough to make those setups work at the front end of the pattern without an anchoring high to the north. I remain as optimistic as ever about the 8th-12th period. I don’t see any reason to change course on that. Clear signal, just no clear answers, which is fine at a week+.

Unfortunately we are. We haven’t had a true CAD ice event in a while. Plenty of in-situ setups but those are rarely more than nuisance events.

CAD ice event

GFS is rolling and the energy is further south out west

Amen. We’ve earned the snow this year probably more than any other place in the country. Happy new years!

Most are here to learn so sharing your expertise is always welcomed.

Pull up the 500 mb vort map and compare to 12z. The wave kicks east but just missed the phase.

Big improvements on the next wave. Almost there.

18z GFS is a CAD special slop fest

Went north a hair at 18z but the high is also in a slightly better position

CAD special

INCOMING!!!!!

No major changes through 108 hrs

Im not as concerned about the storms or the energy and how it resolves, I’m mildly concerned about the trough axis and how our -NAO sets up. Now, I say mildly. Really the 12z suite is the first ensemble runs that give me pause but with it being ensembles and not operational runs, my interest is peaked. It’s probably just years of being burnt kicking in but I do think the atmosphere tends to get in a repetitive state and could trend towards a look that’s completely northern stream dominant with a trough axis too far east to slow down these waves (early this month). On the flip, the extreme cold has backed off today. It still looks well below average and that’s good. The pipe bursting cold shown over the last few days was never good. Nobody wants lows tracking through Cuba. edit: I should add that this doesn’t apply to all ensembles across the board. The GEFS shows exactly what we’d want and to lend it credit, it has been consistent.

Panel 3 and we can start spreading pre emergent

I hope this isn’t a trend but the Euro Ens was much further east with our trough axis mid month. Resembled early Dec more than anything.

Also, this is where the experts stand on the Jan 6th storm

This. I sort of think it’s a win either way. I never want to pass up a winter weather opportunity but if we end up just risking sleet and freezing rain, I’ll happily pass because it sets the stage all the better for everyone on waves 2 and 3.

That high over the Bahamas would be a major stick in the mud even with a good track

That’s fine for now

Yea I worry this is the most likely solution and middle ground between the models. There is a lot of vegetation hanging on by a thread in WNC that didn’t go down completely during Helene. An ice storm would be much more impactful than normal for the region.

The 12z GFS is weather porn but as of right now it’s on its own island so I’m struggling to believe it. I still think the most likely solution is a cutter with a brief CAD event but of course I’d love to be wrong.