BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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It’s also been warm at 5+ days the entire month of December
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Feels like it’s been a minute since we’ve had one of those truly raw days like today.
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Meanwhile the 12z euro lays down a Christmas Day snow from Alabama to middle Virginia.
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That was such an underrated event in our neck of the woods. Saw a little bit of everything and the snow over-performed. Looking back at pictures - roughly 6 ish inches of snow, a nice crust of sleet and a very minimal glaze to top it all off.
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The Torch Town thread is also now live for those who need it
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A safe space for all Merry Torchmas chatter and beyond. can we pin this to keep the mid-long range thread clean? @jburns
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We’re getting ready to traverse through a reasonably high amplitude phase 6. All is going as planned. Phase 7 isn’t all sunshine and roses either for the upper and mid south. Patience as we propagate into high amplitude 8 and 1. It’s still autumn on the calendar.
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I think Jan is going to have to be our shot. That’s when the -EPO should be working in our favor the most.
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Yep and I don’t like the amount of northern stream dominated runs we’ve seen so far. Clipper energy just doesn’t pan out for us. I’ll be happy for folks if they score but man. Long gone are the days of overrunning events and gulf lows (that don’t cut west).
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Fortunately no warm weather regardless. The last frame is a suppressive look with a monster 1045 high over the Ohio valley. No driving, chipping and putting, just nose bleeds and chapstick.
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Regardless, I’ll rejoice in not having to wear shorts this Christmas. It’s sad that a seasonable to cold Christmas feels like you’re scoring an absolute coup of a victory.
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A reminder that big storms in this region tend to honk loudly and honk early on the models. Idk if I’d consider the last few days honking, but the signal has been consistently there time and time again. Carry on.
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Predicting the polar vortex and where the lobes of energy head is always a crapshoot but man does it look stretched and warped on LR guidance.
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And the signal has been there for not only days but borderline a week now.
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5.15” in the big town of Granite Falls over the past 24hrs.
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Ever since Helene, the wind has given me a bit of anxiety. Our house was so fortunately lucky that day to lose trees all around it but have none hit it. I’m surrounded by very mature pines and when I get 4+ inches of rain like this, even 20-30 mph gusts make me nervous.
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Are we ever going to figure out how to have normal rain again? Over 3 inches today alone here after a bone dry stretch. I swear it’s either drought or flooding rains.
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Yes, the post Christmas timeframe closer to New Years has the most promise since the PNA looks like it’ll build and the MJO likely heads into phase 7. I think anything before then is gravy we should appreciate .
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I do think these past few weeks have been weird and I’m not sure any normal thinking for the LR is completely in play. Optimistic we’ll get some help in the eastern Pacific and maybe for once the background state isn’t so hostile.
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Having seen the MJO projections yesterday, I’m sort of surprised the ops aren’t showing more warmth in the mid-long range. I’d cash out on the 21st for the rest of winter with what the Euro is showing.
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I crave a Miller A like I crave a winning franchise in the city of Charlotte.
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Also the days leading up to Christmas look interesting to say the least
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Just haven’t had a chance to be active today. Thoughts are the same. Guidance is rather split but my main takeaway is that I find it interesting the Euro AI is so persistent with the cold and storm threats. It did a pretty good job sniffing out the last cold blast.
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The models yesterday generally had the MJO in the COD which lended credit to a colder pattern since it avoids the influence of phases 5&6. Last night, the models honed in on it progressing from 5 to 6 and ending Dec in 7 without entering the COD. That’s why we’re in the mode of flip flopping.
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There was so much to like not only from that run, but the GFS as well. Ensembles trending colder in the medium and long range too! Haven’t seen the EPO plots but maybe @GaWxcould lend a helping hand.
