BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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A safe space for all Merry Torchmas chatter and beyond. can we pin this to keep the mid-long range thread clean? @jburns
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We’re getting ready to traverse through a reasonably high amplitude phase 6. All is going as planned. Phase 7 isn’t all sunshine and roses either for the upper and mid south. Patience as we propagate into high amplitude 8 and 1. It’s still autumn on the calendar.
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I think Jan is going to have to be our shot. That’s when the -EPO should be working in our favor the most.
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Yep and I don’t like the amount of northern stream dominated runs we’ve seen so far. Clipper energy just doesn’t pan out for us. I’ll be happy for folks if they score but man. Long gone are the days of overrunning events and gulf lows (that don’t cut west).
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Fortunately no warm weather regardless. The last frame is a suppressive look with a monster 1045 high over the Ohio valley. No driving, chipping and putting, just nose bleeds and chapstick.
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Regardless, I’ll rejoice in not having to wear shorts this Christmas. It’s sad that a seasonable to cold Christmas feels like you’re scoring an absolute coup of a victory.
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A reminder that big storms in this region tend to honk loudly and honk early on the models. Idk if I’d consider the last few days honking, but the signal has been consistently there time and time again. Carry on.
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Predicting the polar vortex and where the lobes of energy head is always a crapshoot but man does it look stretched and warped on LR guidance.
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And the signal has been there for not only days but borderline a week now.
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5.15” in the big town of Granite Falls over the past 24hrs.
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Ever since Helene, the wind has given me a bit of anxiety. Our house was so fortunately lucky that day to lose trees all around it but have none hit it. I’m surrounded by very mature pines and when I get 4+ inches of rain like this, even 20-30 mph gusts make me nervous.
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Are we ever going to figure out how to have normal rain again? Over 3 inches today alone here after a bone dry stretch. I swear it’s either drought or flooding rains.
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Yes, the post Christmas timeframe closer to New Years has the most promise since the PNA looks like it’ll build and the MJO likely heads into phase 7. I think anything before then is gravy we should appreciate .
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I do think these past few weeks have been weird and I’m not sure any normal thinking for the LR is completely in play. Optimistic we’ll get some help in the eastern Pacific and maybe for once the background state isn’t so hostile.
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Having seen the MJO projections yesterday, I’m sort of surprised the ops aren’t showing more warmth in the mid-long range. I’d cash out on the 21st for the rest of winter with what the Euro is showing.
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I crave a Miller A like I crave a winning franchise in the city of Charlotte.
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Also the days leading up to Christmas look interesting to say the least
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Just haven’t had a chance to be active today. Thoughts are the same. Guidance is rather split but my main takeaway is that I find it interesting the Euro AI is so persistent with the cold and storm threats. It did a pretty good job sniffing out the last cold blast.
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The models yesterday generally had the MJO in the COD which lended credit to a colder pattern since it avoids the influence of phases 5&6. Last night, the models honed in on it progressing from 5 to 6 and ending Dec in 7 without entering the COD. That’s why we’re in the mode of flip flopping.
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There was so much to like not only from that run, but the GFS as well. Ensembles trending colder in the medium and long range too! Haven’t seen the EPO plots but maybe @GaWxcould lend a helping hand.
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I lost the link to the tweet but we’ve had a remarkable amount of snowpack expansion to our north. There’s now a solid pack to transport air from Siberia straight into the CONUS. Euro showing upper Midwest banana highs to boot.
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Ensemble trends have been incredible today.
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AN is probably still the higher likelihood solution because the pacific is raging in the medium range but this isn’t your average SER death dome warmth - it’s mild pacific air warm, which will just be a bunch of days in the upper 50s with the occasional 60 sprinkled in. If the pattern isnt super conducive for snow, which it likely wont be with a +EPO, I’m fine with this. It’ll feel seasonal still, especially at night + some time for the youngin’ to get outside and play on her new swing from Santa.
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I may be wrong but I recall our best setups typically happen when the west coast ridge sets up over the Rockies too
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That’s the bright spot for sure. It doesn’t seem like we’re headed for a torch. At most, transient cold and warm and the stretches that are warm will have pacific origins. It sure as hell beats the past few Decembers.
