BooneWX

I think a lot of you are going to see some insane totals the next few weeks.

I’m going to keep grasping at straws. Snow is my favorite weather type and I’m going to show every weenie run those glorious models produce. We’ll return to regularly scheduled severe weather, 70 dew point programming in Feb/March.

Came here for a dose of optimism that I can’t find on the Southeast forum and it delivered. The Euro Ens shows a very nice tick west with the trough axis. It’s no longer in New England and now sits over the lakes and Ohio Valley. That’s right where both forums are going to want it. Let’s hope it’s right! I think the models are starting to adjust to the ridging over the Atlantic.

Euro Ens mean for the trough at 12z is right where we want it, centered over the Ohio Valley. If we can keep it there, we will have our shots.

And what an epic event it was. Lived in Mt Airy at the time and got caught under that ULL death band at the end of the storm. Hit almost 20 inches. Still the biggest storm I’ve ever seen but 2018 came close.

Saw this morning that our trough axis ticked westward on most ensemble guidance overnight. I hate to sound dramatic but if we don’t get that worked out, we can kick the can till next year. I’m as optimistic as possible but we either score before the 20th or it’s game over. Enso is going to eventually play a role and I noticed that the MJO looks to head into high amplitude 3 and possibly 4 after our magical 8-1-2 run. February has been tough around here and I find it hard to believe winter stays in the east through that time period.

You have to pay the severe weather tax anytime ahead of a cold period

That was a fun night on this forum. My day time temp hit the low 50s and we crashed to 31 under dynamic cooling. Had around 4 inches of paste living in Burke County at that time. Edit: I’ve got the wrong storm. I’m thinking Feb 6, 2021. Upstate and western Nc got nailed that evening.

Back in the good ol days where you could count on at least 2-3 events per year minimum in the foothills

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned in the foothills thread that 1/30 clippers equates to snow in the foothills and this was the exact storm I had in mind. Thank you for finding it!

The first wave is definitely going to be OTS but that second wave will be worth watching

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1872313028605317276?s=46 this is borderline bullish for him

I asked for a Dec 2018 redux and all I had under the tree was a print out surface map of a cutter.

this is my fear as well. We did this dance in the front half of Dec. To our benefit this time around, it looks like we could have some blocking to help slow down the progressiveness of the storms. Then again, when is the pattern ever a total slam dunk when we score? Feeling oddly good compared to years past… Don’t know why. I can’t put my finger on it, just do. Hope I’m right.

Merry Christmas foothill brethren

Euro snow ensemble mean was nice

We’re in the season of giving (to everyone else except us foothills folk)

YOULL TAKE THE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM AND YOULL LIKE IT

Pacific jet retraction, blocking, west coast ridge, cross polar flow. We need one more thing.

lol…. Gentle swing there by the GFS

For what it’s worth, the AI models, including the GFS graph cast are closer to the EPS than the GFS and its suite

The past 3 or 4 winters have had Oct/Nov temps in Jan for the most part as well, so idk if we really have any track record to go on in recent years as far as that’s concerned with low placement + the cold dumping into the conus. This side of the world has been devoid of cold since a 2 week period in 2022.

Idk. I’ll take the cold dumping in the plains on Ops for now. I could care less about a trough centered over New England. The former has a much better chance of delivering with a block than the latter.

Some of you RDU folks need to go full weenie after that Euro run