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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. BooneWX
    You could take a gander at the whole southeast radar and convince yourself easily that we’re about to get a big surprise. I know it’ll get a more west to east orientation soon but that moisture over Alabama and Mississippi would have me salivating if I didn’t know better.
  2. BooneWX
    It’s really a shame we’re whiffing on this one. If that precip shield came north a bit more, we’d all be enjoying a nice 2-4 inch event.
  3. BooneWX
    I was so optimistic when it made it to Louisiana and then it just stops dead in its tracks with CAD firmly entrenched to the north lol. We can’t get a break.
  4. BooneWX
    Ya know what they say about the tail end of patterns
  5. BooneWX
    Was just thinking the same thing. My biggest fear from the start was that the push of cold would be too much. When people started talking about the piece of the polar vortex breaking off, I had a bad feeling. It’s such a balancing act and this surge is just too overwhelming to kick off anything meaningful in our area. I’d love to see one good classic setup in Jan or February where we can get a sprawling high over upstate NY and rely on true CAD.
  6. BooneWX
    Hour 72 on the NAM is such a teaser. That 1041 high over Canada almost gets the job done but it’s just a bit too far away to make it happen.
  7. BooneWX
    17.2 this morning. We live in a cold sink, so I’m at least excited to see what happens over this next week. Won’t be surprised if I can hit single digits Saturday morning.
  8. BooneWX
    Best advice I have for everyone to consider, if you get some spare time or a weekend where northwest flow is forecasted, don’t hesitate to head up with the family. A lot of people don’t realize it, but when they close the parkway for snow, it’s open to recreation. Take the sleds and enjoy. I know it’s never the same as snow in your backyard but it’ll satisfy the itch enough. I’m down in Burke County now, but always try to go up when a big flow event is forecasted.
  9. BooneWX
    Hunter called it!
  10. BooneWX
    Hope this trends drier. I’m absolutely sick of the rain.
  11. BooneWX
    You can toss the UKMET in the improved department too
  12. BooneWX
    Yea and it’s important to stay wary of the main thread. For most, I hate to say it, they live in areas where storms in borderline perfect setups don’t work in their favor. And when they don’t, it’s all pessimism and hate for anyone that does score.
  13. BooneWX
    I need a stiff drink
  14. BooneWX
    ICON much closer to the GFS solution
  15. BooneWX
    Annnnnnnd we’re back to an east coast solution. Gonna be curious to see if we get any level of agreement from the euro.
  16. BooneWX
    And the windshield wiper continues
  17. BooneWX
    Ridge looks flatter than 18z at hr 90 but let’s see how this goes
  18. BooneWX
    Even if it trends towards 2 inches of rain it just feels so dang good to be tracking something - anything.
  19. BooneWX
    I’m chuckling because you’re 100% right - how do you split the difference between a foot of snow and a severe weather outbreak? The models are laughable at this point and the most we should take away is that the ensembles show a favorable pattern.
  20. BooneWX
    For what it’s worth, the gfs and GEFS have been consistent with the signal for days.
  21. BooneWX
    Another angle of that to consider: the GFS and a vast majority of its ensembles have honed in on a similar setup for days and continue to do so. It’s the only one without the major swings you described. Consistency matters.
  22. BooneWX
    I’ll get toasted and roasted in the other thread if I say this, so I’ll say it here: the gfs is on an island but I couldn’t tell you the last time I saw the Euro have a correct solution at day 7 either. Last January’s storm, the gfs was completely on an island.
  23. BooneWX
    It’s a similar look to the GFS at 144
  24. BooneWX
    It won’t be heartbreak if I don’t go ahead and set myself up for disappointment now
  25. BooneWX
    Central VA measuring in feet
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