BooneWX

Good run for the Euro AI

Unfortunately, many are still in tents. I’m worried about them as well. This region is hurting tremendously both physically and economically.

We start the step down Wednesday and it’s a progressive slide from there with each front being a bit more stout than the one before it. How long? That’s a great question but most ensembles have us in a freezer into week 2. Week 3 of Jan is just too far out to definitively say but right now it’s trending cold as well.

Cold to that degree is worrisome, so you’re not alone. Heating demand will be immense and the extent of the cold prevents utilities from being able to allocate generation resources across the east coast.

While attention is rightfully on the snow chances, here are my thoughts on the temps at 12z .

Been a very long time that we’ve had all 3 major global models show winter wx solutions on an event a week out.

Woof .

That was a nasty line. Severe weather tax paid! Now give me my snow.

Back off of what? You literally can’t dial up a better looking upper level pattern for the south east than what’s been depicted overnight. I’m so damn confused as to what people expect/want right now with it being the 29th and the first stages of a pattern change still being days away. I haven’t had snow in a climatologically favored region in almost 1,100 days. We all want snow, no shit. Why does every other post in this thread have to be some “it’ll never snow in my backyard ever again” shtick. We’ve got a thread for this. Hell, I made it myself! edit: and before someone says it - no you’re absolutely allowed to say and think it wont but for the love of god, back it up with reasoning other than you’re sad that it hasn’t snowed lately.

Well that was quite the weenie run to wake up to

The type of entertainment SouthernWX could never deliver on

LAWD .

Happy hour GFS

Almost 1/3 odds now for Hickory to net more than 6 inches. We are going to riot soon @calculus1

Feels like it’s been so long since we’ve had anything worth tuning into. It’s like old times

so appetizer followed by dinner? Don’t mind if I do

A 3” mean near Atlanta is just absolutely wild. Still less wild than there being a mean for central Florida.

Euro Ens mean snowfall for Hickory: 4.5”. I haven’t seen this in a long time.

That 50/50 low is going to help put CAD regions in the freezer. The EPS mean is absolutely absurd. 70-80% odds for 1” or greater in most of Nc.

Timeline wise, we really shouldn’t be looking for a threat. It’s the 28th and we know that anything before the 7th/8th is a wash. We’re 10+ days out from anything coming to fruition. It’s all pattern recognition for now but I’ve got a good feeling the Op runs will start looking more interesting somewhere in that Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

It’s still loading for me but this is shaping up to be a nice EPS run. Quite the Miller A signature.

At this pace, it’ll be snowing in Puerto Rico by 0Z. I’m getting concerned about the extent of the cold. There’s too much of a good thing and what the models are showing is not only pipe bursting cold but the type of cold that causes widespread grid control issues.

Ensembles look great. I think we get some absolute weenie runs early in the week.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1872793416394031246?s=46

I’ll take panel 38 or 40 and log out until Dec 2025