BooneWX

Hey now. It makes finding a rock to stand on all that much easier.

I’ve tried to dial back my pessimism the last few weeks since it’s still early but I think it’s safe to say our odds in the SE for a synoptic event this winter are trending down quick. Wouldn’t totally be shocked to see a fluke event such as an upper low digging at the perfect time but this just might not be our year for a biggie. Hope I’m wrong! On the bright side, for most you, snow is possible through April. It might be a backloaded winter in the High Country anyways, because it seems like our pattern always goes harshly cold in March lately.

Thank goodness! Saw 2 days of dry weather on the forecast and started to get concerned it was going to become a trend.

One thing I really liked that I haven’t seen in a while: the models despite a pesky SE ridge were honking with CAD signals. That gives me some optimism that we could at least score a Miller B type of setup in the next few weeks.

Interesting! We’ve been so wet in western NC that I was frankly oblivious to any drought conditions this close by. Other than 2016, I can’t really recall when we’ve truly been substantially below average in this part of the SE. We had a 2 week dry period this august and no lie, I think that was the first time I’ve mowed my lawn and had bone dry wheels in 3+ years.

I’ve had over 16 inches of rain since the beginning of November. I’d trade snow for an immediate torch and dry weather if given the opportunity.

My god I miss living in the mountains

If it’s going to be warm, I just wish it could be dry. At this juncture I’d trade snow for no rain until March 1st.

On my second snow shower of the day down in the hills. A pleasant surprise.

My goodness that radar is juicy upstream

Looking forward to Friday. I’m in a weird spot in the foothills that always seems to see some non-accumulating token flakes flying during robust events. Might be all I see this winter so I’m going to soak it in!

I was just making a generalization about the pattern and likelihood of a Nina year producing Feb cold. We need those same ensembles to start showing a change in the medium range because they’ve been showing a long range “change” for about 2 and a half weeks.

The latter would probably be more likely in a Nina year. We desperately need things to flip this month or it might be time to start getting the lawn mower serviced.

It’ll be great to have a +PNA, but one thing that concerns me is the position of the ridge on the west coast. The center of that ridge being in the eastern pacific just west of Seattle ain’t gonna cut it unless you’re moving to Ohio shortly.

The mountains are about to feast. I may make the trek from the hills to see it. An afternoon walk on the parkway may be calling on Saturday.

Luckily, a PV disruption is looking very imminent, so I’d assume long range models will start to trend colder.

Mood

Nah, El Niño is going to spring up at just the perfect time to delay that and give you a March and April full of cold rain dreams.

El Niño setting up just in time to make sure the crawl to warmer weather is delayed come spring as well. Sheesh…

Roxboro with the max totals already tells me I need to believe this will be the solution

Hard to hate that run if you’re in east Tenn, N Ga, the Upstate or the western 2/3s of NC and VA.

WARNING. The 12z Euro is NSFW.

Looks like Santa is only giving out Miller Bs for 2023.

Good Ol’ Miller B. Setup ironically looks a lot like the storm preceding it by 365 days.

I wouldn’t completely hate this torch if it could come without the rain for once