BooneWX

Panel 3 and we can start spreading pre emergent

I hope this isn’t a trend but the Euro Ens was much further east with our trough axis mid month. Resembled early Dec more than anything.

Also, this is where the experts stand on the Jan 6th storm

This. I sort of think it’s a win either way. I never want to pass up a winter weather opportunity but if we end up just risking sleet and freezing rain, I’ll happily pass because it sets the stage all the better for everyone on waves 2 and 3.

That high over the Bahamas would be a major stick in the mud even with a good track

That’s fine for now

Yea I worry this is the most likely solution and middle ground between the models. There is a lot of vegetation hanging on by a thread in WNC that didn’t go down completely during Helene. An ice storm would be much more impactful than normal for the region.

The 12z GFS is weather porn but as of right now it’s on its own island so I’m struggling to believe it. I still think the most likely solution is a cutter with a brief CAD event but of course I’d love to be wrong.

The cad showing up on the 6z gfs is very stout. HKY doesn’t get above 28 for the duration of the event. Does anybody have the sleet map by chance? I saw little Frz rain so I figured that is a sleet fest.

Icon would’ve been interesting to see past 180 hrs. Another drop in the bucket of solid trends.

Euro AI has the wave dropping in stronger and at a lower latitude. also. This blocking. Holllly smokes.

Gonna riot if it’s a dusting.

Solid improvements at 18z across the board. -NAO doing some dirty work for us.

Before anyone jumps ship - the 18z GFS has features a thousand miles apart (literally) from the 12z run.

This is a good thing.

The differences over these past 3 model cycles are much more subtle than the surface depictions would lead you to believe. Small nuances in where individual pieces of energy come ashore out west, drop in, link up, etc etc. But what’s been absolutely consistent through the shifts: a. Significant and prolonged cold weather is coming and the upper air charts have made little to no changes b. Plenty of energy I still think something shakes out in our favor, I really do. I’ve also got a feeling we’re entering a territory where we could get into the 3-4 day window before we start to reel one in. On the 6th: likely a cutter. Anything more would be gravy but I’m not sure it’s a bad thing since it would take a heavy turnaround to make it a fun storm for all. If it cuts, it lays down a nice blanket of snow just to our north. The models have moderated slightly today because less snow further north = modified air. Our future pieces of energy only stand to benefit from that first low cutting.

The euro just really strings out the energy in the Baja

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https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1873732680816177436?s=46 fwiw

A Miller B is absolutely on the table and IF the first storm is wintry, ice is the likelihood given the setup

6z gfs somehow didn’t break the internet

That Icon run was about to smoke some folks

A wholesome channel in a sea of bad content today. We love it at our house.

Better yet, WHO does it affect? And then I remembered an Outdoor Boys video where Luke camped in -50 degree temps so maybe it’s just issued for him.

Taking a deeper dive into the Jan 6/7th storm. For us, this screams icing potential with a front end thump of Snow/Sleet. Damming high building into southern Ontario and a cutter. I think it’s this storm that *could set us up better a few days later. As it cuts, it dislodges frigid air into our region.