BooneWX
-
Posts
2,379 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by BooneWX
-
What a sad, pathetic little system. Miller A wannabe. I think I’m going to go outside and bully it.
-
The convection blow up in the gulf is all I needed to see tonight. I said yesterday this was going to be a painful event as far east as the triad and I think it could now be even further east than that. Depending on a dying batch of precip to survive downsloping in hopes a 1010+ mb low pressure 200 miles off shore will throw back moisture is a recipe for disappointment.
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
BooneWX replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Convection is blowing up in the northern Gulf almost identical to the NAM depiction. Yikes. -
It looked much better on the radar depiction than previous cycles
-
I sat out the sled, flat side up for measurements and good luck. Nothing wrong with bringing the vibes.
-
Live look at the Foothill and Mountain threads fighting together in the main storm disco. .
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
BooneWX replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Also we’re nowcasting. Quit agonizing over models that showed a blizzard 3 days ago. Good luck everyone! -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
BooneWX replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
This board is so back. - RDU folks debating the warm nose that’ll split the county in half - War of words between west and east - 100 WRAL mentions per hour I love it. This winter although underwhelming for anyone not at the coast has brought opportunities and the hilariousness of old. -
There’s usually no warmth until the state has stocked the last trout. It only warms up after the poachers net everything out of the delayed harvest water. Anecdotal, I know, but just an observation from the past.
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
BooneWX replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Not the 10:1 maps. Use Kuchera to account for sleet -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
BooneWX replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I’ve been rounding up small measurements for years -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
BooneWX replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
We’re almost to nowcasting time. Enjoy the ride - folks down east! For the rest of you scoundrels in the upstate and foothills, whichever one of you pissed off Mother Nature and had her send us Helene and an a below average winter for temps with below average snow - REPENT! -
The NAM has a distinct line of storms in the gulf robbing moisture transport. Like I said earlier, that’s the key to the boom or bust factor for many.
-
The 3k has been firing warning shots for several runs now. I could care less locally because my expectations are low but this could be heartbreak city tomorrow for the triad and Wake co.
-
GSP cut my expected snowfall by half an inch but increased the high end by an inch. In short - nobody knows!
-
SREF mean looks like it’ll be slightly less but overall not much of a change
-
Wait until the northern stream hears about this
-
I think the big thing tomorrow is that some stretch of western NC is likely to get completely blanked. It’s the nature of these systems moving west to east. The big question is where.
-
I have little faith in SREF plumes but I did find it interesting for KHKY that yesterday there was good consensus for a sub-2” event with most members below the mean line. Today there are two groups forming: one is a tight cluster between 2.5-4” and another slightly smaller but still large cluster between 1-2”. Yesterday, several members blanked KHKY and today, none do. Outliers: 2 members @ .35” 4 members (up from 2 members yesterday) >5”
-
Lee side trough for the win?
-
The NAM was much more muted than recent runs with convection in the gulf. That’s the wildcard tomorrow and why I think some models are so paltry and some are much improved. @HKY_WXremind me - isn’t there a rule for the orientation of those storms in the Gulf? Some setups enhance moisture transport to the north while others choke it off?
-
Could’ve been much better as well. I poked around soundings and it has sleet/snow for many hours with a clear snow sounding.
-
I’ll say this - wouldn’t it be HILARIOUS if this topped the Jan 11th event? I’d only need more than 2.1” to make that a reality, not likely but attainable with a little Lee side trough.
-
3k has a good handle on this imo. It sees the sinking air east of the apps. I don’t think this is only a foothills issue. I could see areas under winter storm warnings in the triad getting blanked too.
-
Problem is - there’s two major inhibitors for gulf moisture transport to WNC: - the original low dying out and transferring to the Atlantic is bound to leave a dry slot somewhere. We rarely benefit from a west to east transfer. - several models are hinting at robust convection in the gulf, cutting off our already limited gulf feed. I think THIS is the wildcard. Those storms or lack thereof can mean the difference between getting blanked or having a huge shocker.
