BooneWX

The EF-5 drought has been broken. .

Not even sweating it. We couldn’t make wall to wall cold for almost the entire winter work out, last year.

48° this morning!

Huge win for all of us if the trends this evening are correct. Seems like the slower organization of PTC9 and the rapid ramp up for Humberto are starting to get sniffed out. Hopefully it feels that influence more than the ULL. I’ll never forget everyone thinking the ULL last year would tug Helene from Tallahassee to Chattanooga and we saw that model bias get exposed in an unfortunate manner but maybe this time “fortunately” is the word??

Charlotte stations are doing the same. The setup has alarmingly bad potential.

Local western NC talk here: a lot to track and a lot to determine, but if the circulation meanders into SC, it’s another terrible scenario for an area still reeling from Helene. Easterly, upslope flow and a steady fetch of moisture from the Atlantic…not good. We’ve luckily had very dry antecedent conditions but that can change rapidly with plenty of convective activity expected ahead of the circulation.

Not good. Easterly flow into our region/upslope, a stalled out circulation and a fetch of moisture that is likely extremely undermodeled by low resolution depictions at this juncture. .

Not looking forward to next week.

It’s always us, unless it’s Dec-March, and then it’s everyone else

Cut off lows and tropical systems…..

I’m there as well. To get the 10” - Give me a 6” event, 3” event, with a surprise 1” at some point in the winter.

If you could only choose one option, what would you take? Option 1: Dec 2018 redo but the remainder of winter has above average temps. Option 2: Three snowfall events with varying amounts and a seasonal total of 10”. Wall to wall cold.

Yep, I can almost smell the late phase coming that cashes in everyone east of I-77.

We need it, or we’re going to have a rough wildfire season.

49.6° at my place. Wish I had time to sit outside and soak it in. Maybe soon we can time one of these fronts up for a weekend.

We are spoiled as hell to have essentially skipped the dog days entirely. It’s false fall but with each passing day, the heat won’t have that same stiffness to it. College football on the back porch tonight. Enjoy!

We’re going to pay dearly for this pleasant weather in Sept and Oct aren’t we?

Just in time for week 1 of college football.

Looks like she’s finally hopping in the car to leave

Erin is dragging her feet. Her ride is coming along quickly. What if she misses it? I’m starting to wonder….because you know the models have always been dialed in on UL lows in the North Atlantic. Rarely ever miss!

Erin looks like it’s definitely going to be a mess for the OBX. It won’t be anything they aren’t used to, but it looks more and more likely that they’ll feel a big push of water + TS winds. What a crazy system. It’s always fascinating to see these MDR systems go from tight compact, Charley-like cores to large real estate systems in just a few days. Weather is cool.

This took me by surprise, not gonna lie. I was expecting showery activity but this has been a complete washout. .95” on the day so far, but like you said, plenty more coming.

6z 3K NAM has almost 8 inches from Cleveland and Rutherford counties up to my neck of the woods. It looks like a new fetch sets up overnight in the foothills. HRRR wayyyyy further east with the axis.

First, I absolutely realize this is the equivalent of posting a 10:1 snowfall map 300 hrs out but to my point yesterday, I think we’re heading for some dangerously prime conditions in the SW Atlantic. Sea surface temps are bath tub warm, it looks like whatever wave makes it west of the Antilles will have optimally low shear and won’t be competing with dry air. “Ridge over troubled water” pattern inbound… Lots of solutions on the table but this ridiculous one from the GFS isn’t the only model firing warning shots. The ensembles seem to like the odds of a strong system on this side of the hemisphere in 10ish days. .

It has support from the HRRR too. 4+” through early Wed for a large chunk of the foothills with more convection as it went out of range.