BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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HRRR keeps the trend going at 0z for the shortwave to dig further west.
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All of our chips are on the table for a lee side trough. Without it, nothing, with it……
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That’d be the most excitement we’ve had in 3 years
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Actually seems like a pretty reasonable output. The footprint makes sense to me.
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Clearing skies and wet grass, that frost is going to be serious. I’ll be close to passing my seasonal totals of late with just a few more chilly mornings.
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Upslope only happens for us during hurricanes, you know the rules
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Suppression (depression) city
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GEFS moved the trough west at 12z, right where we’d need it. Gotta get the euro ensembles on board though.
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We are so close, it’s easy to see. Right now, we’re getting the red track with these shortwaves, which continues to favor a lack of digging and marginal weak events into the mid-Atlantic. Nudge that trough west so it’s centered over the lakes and we’ll be ready for takeoff. It wouldn’t take much to trend that direction - it’s really a small tweak at range. Pumping that ridge out west would be helpful too but we can’t have everything. .
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Cross polar flow is showing up though…I think we’re always programmed to think this is a good thing in the south but I can’t disagree more. This is likely going to be way too much of a good thing. Pipe bursting cold and snow are usually not synonymous.
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If we continue to tick that trough further west next weekend, we likely have a shot with the northern energy digging more.
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Guilty as charged
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I’ve admittedly never been a big DT guy but this is well worth the 22 min watch
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Someone will get the ultimate tease from the NAM tomorrow
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Let’s play a game of find the lee .
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GEFS with quite the increase in precip as well. I still think thermals would be an issue, especially that time of day.
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When was the last time we had a Lee side trough? It’s been a long time I believe
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We got the hot light to appear by fantasizing about past storms - this crew is built different. True winter storm weenies.
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Dec 2018 (above) will be hard to replicate but 4 years earlier is still the goat for me. That Valentines storm in 2014, I was living in Mt. Airy and day 1 was cool but as the storm was departing, we got under that upper level death band and watched us eclipse day 1 totals in a quarter of the time. By far the heaviest snow I’ve ever witnessed. Believe we came close to 20”. .
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I was in high school too. I remember getting out early that day. We had a family Christmas gathering that night and still went. We passed dozens of cars stalled out in the main roadways - no plows could keep up. I also recall it being bitterly cold after that snow and school basically got canceled an extra 3-4 days before winter break. Magical time! Freed up some 1 am evenings with the boys playing call of duty lol.
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Old Dominion? Do we have a Monarch in this chat?!
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That 2009 event is so underrated. One of my all time favorites.
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I need a shortwave that hits negative tilt in Alabama with a surface low tracking just inland. Gonna speak it into existence.
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Yep. It doesn’t make me bullish. I’d rather maintain this slightly below average pattern we’ve got rn and hope for an anchored high to deliver the goods. I don’t think anyone outside of the mountains should be rooting for the PV split and historic cold dump.
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On the flip side, next weekends trough setup could be more favorable to amplify something. It looks like we might be in a favorable spot with the trough positioned over the lakes.
