BooneWX

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No, nobody was. Not a single expert has been bullish on that timeframe for us, just us weenies. Making that work was going to be hard and would really sacrifice the pattern to get more involved anyways. This storm lays out the plates, silverware and glasses - just not the food.

EPS shows the signal. A bit of suppression but the average output is a southern slider but perhaps a full on Miller A. I can see it trending northwest a bit with time but I sort of feel like the “up the east coast” threat is waning a bit for New England weenies.

A proper snowpack right where we need to transport the Polar Express. .

I think we’re at a crossroads until that first system passes. Just my thoughts. Tuesday will give us a lot of answers good or bad.

It’s the ride we’re all addicted to and enjoy. And enjoy it! We’ve had nothing worth tracking for years.

Ratios for that setup would also be high for the upstate and western Carolinas. Probably more of a 4-6” event taken at face value

I like where we’re sitting. This first storm is just going to be a sacrificial lamb. 12gfs was a good look and that precip field would likely be more expansive verbatim with a sub 1000 mb low off of Charleston. Let’s ride.

This is the potential the pattern has. First low sacrificed, beautiful 50/50 low ensues and we get a strike underneath.

On the bright side, this can help our energy for the 9th-11th.

My thought: I truly think our models suck. I mean, bottom barrel garbage, useless trash 90% of the time. A product of poor funding and nobody outside of the weather community seeing the need for improvements these past several years. It won’t shock me at all if we can’t even sniff a big dog in advance on the models anymore (prob likely tbh) and it equally won’t shock me when and if we get closer to a threat that they all jump on board 72 hrs out. .

First storm is a wash other than some onset ice in CAD regions. I think we all knew it would arrive there eventually - it looked like a miller b from the start. Tough to make those setups work at the front end of the pattern without an anchoring high to the north. I remain as optimistic as ever about the 8th-12th period. I don’t see any reason to change course on that. Clear signal, just no clear answers, which is fine at a week+.

Unfortunately we are. We haven’t had a true CAD ice event in a while. Plenty of in-situ setups but those are rarely more than nuisance events.

CAD ice event

GFS is rolling and the energy is further south out west

Amen. We’ve earned the snow this year probably more than any other place in the country. Happy new years!

Most are here to learn so sharing your expertise is always welcomed.

Pull up the 500 mb vort map and compare to 12z. The wave kicks east but just missed the phase.

Big improvements on the next wave. Almost there.

18z GFS is a CAD special slop fest

Went north a hair at 18z but the high is also in a slightly better position

CAD special

INCOMING!!!!!

No major changes through 108 hrs

Im not as concerned about the storms or the energy and how it resolves, I’m mildly concerned about the trough axis and how our -NAO sets up. Now, I say mildly. Really the 12z suite is the first ensemble runs that give me pause but with it being ensembles and not operational runs, my interest is peaked. It’s probably just years of being burnt kicking in but I do think the atmosphere tends to get in a repetitive state and could trend towards a look that’s completely northern stream dominant with a trough axis too far east to slow down these waves (early this month). On the flip, the extreme cold has backed off today. It still looks well below average and that’s good. The pipe bursting cold shown over the last few days was never good. Nobody wants lows tracking through Cuba. edit: I should add that this doesn’t apply to all ensembles across the board. The GEFS shows exactly what we’d want and to lend it credit, it has been consistent.