BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Also - to the where is the cold question: Our TPV lobe gets punched back home by guess what? The Pacific.
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Our 50/50 low looked better this run but we can’t have it trending east. Re: tomorrow’s storm clears up a lot, good or bad.
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I’m going to go out on a controversial limb here and say that so far this meteorological winter has exceeded my expectations, so if it turns warm down the stretch, so be it. My assumption with La Niña back in early Nov was that we’d experience widespread SER problems and have a litter of days in the 60s and 70s. Dec was seasonal to below average and January is shaping up to be the same. I hope we score next week because in hindsight, it’ll feel like a coup to me.
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The fly in the ointment is this first system. I think we may see some wild swings after tomorrow with our 2nd system. Our cold air that follows system 1 is highly impactful on the end result of system 2.
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Overrunning is a fine way to go as well. Although it’ll be nerve wrecking because models are notoriously paltry right up to the event.
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My only thoughts this morning is that I think we’re trending towards a phased bomb. Each subsequent run seems to pulling that Baja low east quicker.
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Inside 7 days.
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@jburnscan we pin this and unpin 2024?
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I’d be fine with this event. Might even trim the grass ahead of it to ensure none of those grass blades are poking through.
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Icon was certainly a nice look and gets the Baja wave from moving to Australia. Let’s see what else comes of the evening.
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Just saw this as well. It’s definitely interesting that the graf is trending towards a solution we saw a few days ago - overrunning precip well ahead of the low after looking paltry for days.
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30 minute flizzard. We need a new 2025 thread. Who’s got good mojo? I started this one and all we got was a devastating hurricane, so hard pass. .
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Overrunning setup on GFS
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It’s absolutely thumping there
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.
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Yikes. Don’t look at the EPS. Just pretend it didn’t 100% back the OP.
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Yep and I won’t give up hope until it’s onshore. We still have a lot to work out in the coming days and no doubt, 18z will show something wildly different. We’re still very much in windshield wiper territory.
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Storm aside, it really is wild to see how much the pattern advertised has devolved into such a mess. Cold, sure, but just slightly below average January cold. That’s not enough anymore outside of the mountains.
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Great Lakes low. Would it kill us to ever see a high up north? What’s nuts is how easy it is to get CAD in theory. Quite literally any moderately decent high from Iowa to New England could get us across the finish line.
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Weird a** depiction this go around. I won’t completely discount it but until we see ensembles with a storm that far north and amped, I’m having a hard time buying it. We’re not quite in the range where OPs should take preference.
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Weird solution for sure.
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Too warm this run south of VA and east of Tenn. Really weird setup with a HP near the Bahamas feeding warm air into the south.
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Major winter storm in Tenn, northern Alabama and Miss. snow breaking out in Nc at 180.
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GFS looking a lot like 0Z
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My bad. Still! Not a look most would hate.
