Thank you. That’s it. The forgotten 5. I recall Michael not earning much attention early on and then absolutely going nuclear in the last 24 hrs when the shear was in a more favorable orientation.
Someone correct me if I’m wrong but is the synoptic setup eerily similar to Ian? If I remember correctly, we spent a day or two projecting a modest storm with Ian at best and then it became clear that it would tap into a jet streak and warm waters.
I’m in a steady state of complaining about the rain but also knowing we need it. I think the biggest bummer is that 90% of the weekends this whole year have sucked. It’s making me extra bitter, especially considering we couldn’t even drum up a dusting of snow this winter.
the setup is different but the fetch of moisture, orientation and duration will be the same. This event reminds me a lot of the June 2019 flooding. We’ve been dry but it could be a long week here - I suspect even the models with 6-10 inches may be too conservative since they struggle with upslope enchantment.
Summary:
https://www.weather.gov/rnk/2019_06_07_10_Flood
Delayed but not denied! Don’t forget that rainfall here is only allowed on the days of Saturday and Sunday. She scoots back north just in time to make next weekend a washout.
I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder lol.
My second favorite time of year weather-wise is afternoon thunderstorm season. So I’m a tad bummed that the pattern won’t be so supportive. On the bright side - trout season is here to stay.
I’ve been on a bass binge of late. When I discovered the thrill of catching smallmouth on a fly, it changed my summers. We could definitely use some water though - I wouldn’t mind hitting a blue line for brookies soon.
Kinda hope it keeps trending that way a bit. The way I see it, right now the weekend is a wash 3/3 days, but if we could slow this thing down a bit, we might could salvage a Saturday in the 70s before clouds and rain takeover.
The windshield wiper effect probably isn’t done. Regardless of the tropical low, that upper low is going to make any outdoor holiday weekend plans toast.
Quite the spread. I don’t have access to the 6z euro and Canadian, but all 3 are wildly different. The Canadian has a wedge on Friday but absolutely zero storm anywhere close to us this weekend - it advertises glorious weather into next week.
selfishly rooting for that solution but I know we need some rain.