BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Strung out weak mess
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Went back and looked under the hood at the big 18z gfs run. We would have faired a lot better in reality. In the deformation zone, it shows frz rain on the map but the sounding was very clearly snow.
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Down to 32.5/28.
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33.8/27.0, wet bulb of 31.3. Let’s see what happens here.
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Could be. It’ll be interesting to look back and see if it was the first to sniff the correct end game or first to miss. I don’t think we have a trend in any direction yet, but I do think there are more depictions closer to its solution as of recent runs.
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Euro AI and GFS look similar but hard to tell much since we don’t have many detailed Euro AI maps. This is the FOURTH run in a row that the Euro AI is producing almost the exact same look with little to no change.
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WOOF WOOF .
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The Op does not have support from the GEFS for what it’s worth. GEFS was a very nice look for most.
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GFS was close to glory
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That was realllllly close to an absolute weenie run
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Every single short range model is initializing temps several degrees too high. This could get interesting. That initial band of precip locked us in way lower than anticipated.
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Alright, I don’t disagree. Thread after 12z tomorrow if it’s still there? We’ll have landfall of our wave overnight tonight.
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Yea it might be time for a thread for Friday/Saturday.
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On another note. Mildly intrigued by later this evening. My DP has plummeted to 23 with a temp of 34.
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Meanwhile - I just FaceTimed family in Mount Airy. Absolutely sickening. 3.5” confirmed. There’s surprises and then there’s surprises like that. Completely unexpected.
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Public report of 3.5” in Mount Airy.
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Yep. Northern energy won’t be sampled until at least Wednesday. Two camps I’m now seeing: 1. Traditional models mostly show a flat, weaker wave 2. AI models mostly show a partial/full phase with a robust Miller A. I know in western NC which option I’m pulling for.
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We’re at an interesting crossroads. The AI models almost all have a partial or full phase and a much more classic looking Miller A. The traditional models are mostly in the weak, flat camp. It’ll be interesting to see what solution wins. I know which camp I’m rooting for.
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My family in Mount Airy has about a half an inch on the ground, silver dollars falling and it’s 28.
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Sleet 35/18
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All in all, I like where we’re at right now, even if we’re still awaiting the Euro. I’m getting a feeling that we’re looking at a true CAD event regardless of how amped or not amped the system is.
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I’m telling you, we gotta move it all here going forward. As we get closer, if we get more I85 solutions, it’s going to be gross in that main thread.
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The GFS is terrible at day 5/6 with handling low level cold
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My goodness it is thumping at hr 138
