BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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I wonder why it pulsates between likely snow and likely rain over western NC. Intentional to share mixed thoughts?
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The footprint has improved greatly, as have the totals for the mid south. Gotta hope the latter will happen further east soon.
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Obviously not a super detailed depiction but you can see the precip and eventual low track (heads towards Cape Lookout and then OTS around the mouth of the Chesapeake). .
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12z Euro AI makes it 7 runs with little to no changes. Big Miller A.
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I know everybody was patiently awaiting the JMA but to my point - it was a major snowstorm above I85.
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With all of the major hits in some of the ensemble panels, I think we’re eventually going to get an op run that follows suit and nearly crashes this board.
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Half of the CMC ensembles have big dog potential too.
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Fwiw, the GEFS panels have about 13/30 showing a big dog for us. We’re not dead yet.
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Average GEFS low track: Just offshore Louisiana, south of Destin to Brunswick GA to Cape Lookout
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GEFS trending towards a stronger storm and more moisture
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If the Canadian solution is my main option, I’m fine with that. I’ll take a cold rain and the power being on.
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Yea if I see any trend, it’s that we’re moving away from a snow threat and to an ice threat. Don’t be so quick to discount Frz Rain totals. For many areas, the precip is light and falling into air that’s 25-28°. It’ll freeze much more efficiently than normal.
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And yes, for anyone wondering, it bombs as it pulls away and gives the goods to the MA and new england
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Anybody got the sleet totals map?
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Still a sheered out mess but an improvement
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This is about to make a lot of people happy
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HP parked exactly where we want it
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Snow breaking out in GA at hr 96
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This is going to be an intriguing run
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This GFS run looks more like 18z yesterday
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Biggest thing I gathered from that run is the HP position. Would be really nice to have a 1031 over the Ohio Valley.
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Euro AI is now on run #6 of showing the near same result. Would be a nice storm for many.
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Those were ugly runs no doubt, but it’s all noise at this point. I can’t recall a time tracking weather where I’ve seen individual pieces to a storm oscillate a thousand miles on the exact same model just 6 hrs between runs and proceed to wash, rinse and repeat every single run. We are nowhere close to the final solution - hell, we don’t even had an agreement within model suites to help us look for trends toward/away others. This is going to be a marathon, drink your Gatorade and eat your wheaties.
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I’m not the slightest bit concerned this morning. We’re still seeing thousand mile swings between runs with the individual pieces of energy.
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Man I really hoped we’d be exiting windshield wiper territory at this point. Every single run is wildly different.
