BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Very moist run, very poor thermals -
Fwiw, it is a more moist run overall, so there’s that.
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This storm is setting up to absolutely break some hearts in the mid south
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Less positive tilt more neutral
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Well let’s see if the bleeding has stopped at all. NAM is more moist this run.
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This is probably more coping than anything but here is our bright side in our “this sucks” moment: - Short term guidance is juicier than globals. - still 48 hrs out from the event. - the difference between a little and a lot is a tiny tiny tweak to some of the upper level interactions. - models might not be underestimating the big picture but I do think they’re underestimating lift and upslope potential.
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Depressing
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The GRAF fired the warning shot last night before the 0Z data came in.
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I can’t speak for everyone but I just find the whole situation hilarious for western NC. It’s painfully ironic that we’ve had as much rain and moisture as we’ve had these past few months and THIS system is going to be the one to buck the trend. There’s my whining for the day. Carry on. Congrats to Texas to Tenn for the 600+ time in 3 years.
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GRAF is absolute nightmare fuel. Doesn’t even have a shield of precip - just loosely organized snow showers.
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Looking at the sounding, I think it’s a product of lighter rates. Not enough moisture at that point in the snow growth zone. Says snow/sleet but the sounding over me is freezing drizzle. Personally, I love that track. Someone is going to get a death band from this thing. It’s shown up in several models. Hard to say where it settles, but that stretch from Hendersonville to Shelby is looking good.
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@calculus1we can top this. These folks have never seen the hotels on Hwy 70 in the snow. Magical stuff. We could even show them where the Spirit Halloween pops up once a year.
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We’ll avoid the Lee side min if it’s even slightly amped. If the Euro is right…then we are screwed.
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Curious to see what side caves tonight/tomorrow. Euro & Uk vs Everything else
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Broader scale is it’s amped way too early in the run where it has better accuracy.
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While the surface depiction was excellent, we need to hope the nam is done trending so amped. There’s a fine line and we’re starting to cross it in the mid levels. Much of that snow had sleet/frz rain soundings, even in the mountains.
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Goodness gracious
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.
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And I know this won’t make many feel better but Sunday’s storm in the MA jumped north at this lead time, only to settle further south.
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The pattern certainly seems to be trending back to cold. If so, opportunities will await.
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It’s outperformed the GFS and standard Euro in testing
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12z Euro AI: pretty much the exact same thing it’s been showing for a million runs now
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EPS: juicer, improved. But, a tick north for those on the edge.
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For my fellow NC folks, I’ve got a funny feeling that the Euro will catch on and deliver a more impactful event either at 18 or 0Z. Watch the QPF trend over the past few runs. It’s roughly the same for NC but much heavier amounts keep creeping closer from the southwest.
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So far at 12Z: Icon: Improved GFS: Improved GEFS: Improved Canadian: Same Ukie: Worse Euro: Roughly the Same EPS: TBD Euro AI: TBD
