BooneWX

If we can stay all/mostly snow, we really have a chance to overperform.

Almost lunchtime and it’s still 29 at my house

Whatever falls is going to become concrete if we get some sleet. I’ll be shocked if we verify in the upper 30s Saturday but maybe under full sun.

The NAM definitely seems like the worst case scenario right now but even then, I get an inch of snow and about 2 inches of sleet. Those are elite sledding conditions.

Legacy storm for the Euro AI too.

Man this morning feels like the 24 hrs leading up to the 2022 storm. I remember the fine folks at GSP trending down on totals only to have to hit reverse quickly at the last minute after miserable overnight data. HRRR led the way on that storm and I ended up with 7”.

I’m riding whichever models tell me what I want to hear, so for now, put me in the RAP, RGEM camp. This is subject to change in like 3 hrs.

American WX (after dark)

One thing that’s been remarkable about the GFS is how much the OP has bucked its own ensembles. Even tonight back at 18z, the OP is just south of Macon GA (60 hrs) while almost all GEFS members are just west of Savannah.

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Here’s the thing on the NAM. There’s absolutely nothing preventing this from cutting. We have no blocking high to the north to tuck it underneath. It amplifies the storm, spits out a stout ridge and WAA pushes our fragile cold dome out of the way. It finds the weakness and lifts. I’m not saying it’s right, but characterizing it as out to lunch when WAA has been an issue for days is something I wouldn’t advise. I agree it’s not likely but that’s how it arrived where it did. One of my rules I’ve always had living in the Lee - NEVER trust an in-situ wedge.

Toss the NAM at your own risk

Well that’s certainly one way to get more moisture here

Well now I won’t share with the class

Euro AI hasn’t blinked in 4 days

Nothing is a lock on the east coast unless you live in the Buffalo Southtowns or Tug Hill

Also happy to eat my crow if it comes to fruition but one suite isn’t a trend! Let’s see how tonight shakes out. Still pulling for a SER from hell next month. Two months of cold - I’ve had my fill.

No rivalry for me, I cant compete with a microclimate that quadruples my yearly average on a historically bad season. I’ll always have love for my brethren up the hill. But I do agree - I’m glad we started the foothills thread. We don’t really belong anywhere else because what we root for, rarely works east of us and we can’t relate to flow snow.

Somewhere along that I-85 corridor west of Charlotte is going to get smacked. Almost every model is showing a stout deform band setting up in that area. Shelby might end up being a sweet spot for more than just high school football.

5 BIG BOOOOMS .

Drastic improvements for the 18z Euro

I will say - this fits the typical footprint of a southern slider

Positive note: Euro AI which has been the steady hand so far, ticked up in precip. Widespread 4-6” amounts for NC.

Major downtrend in QPF on the NAM from 12 to 18z

Shout out to Ohio and Indiana for doing better with a southern slider than half of the south!